Altcoins May Have Just One Last Rally This Cycle

The question is, is it a sustained rally that we will see for six to twelve months

According to Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts, altcoins may have just one last rally this cycle, but only those with real utility and strong network activity will see price gains.

“I think there will be one more breadth thrust from altcoins. The question is, is it a sustained rally that we will see for six to twelve months,” Coutts said during an April 3 X livestream with Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal.

Network activity will be the ‘north star’ for how to trade crypto

“At this stage, I am not too sure, but I do believe that quality altcoins where activity returns, activity drives prices …we will definitely see a recovery in some of these more high-quality names,” Coutts added.

As Cointelegraph reported in January, there are currently over 36 million altcoins in existence. However, Ethereum still holds the majority share of total value locked (TVL) with 55.56%, followed by Solana (6.89%), Bitcoin (5.77%), BNB Smart Chain (5.68%), and Tron (5.54%), according to CoinGecko data.

According to Coutts, traders should be watching where the network activity “is gravitating” and use that as their “north star” for how to trade in crypto, adding he sees an altcoin market upswing within the next two months.

On March 28, Coutts told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin could reach all-time highs before the end of Q2 regardless of whether there is more clarity on US President Donald Trump's tariffs and potential recession concerns.

The total crypto market cap is down around 8% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Recently, there has been a sharp decline in blockchain network activity across the board amid a broader crypto market downturn. On Feb. 21, Cointelegraph reported that the number of active addresses on the Solana (SOL) network fell to a weekly average of 9.5 million in February, down nearly 40% from the 15.6 million active addresses in November 2024.

At the same time, the average number of daily transactions on the Solana network dropped to 88,500 in February, down 70% from November 2024.

Altcoin indicators are flashing red

Meanwhile, several key indicators the crypto industry uses to determine an incoming altcoin season suggest it's still nowhere in sight.

Capriole Investments’ Altcoin Speculation Index has dropped to 12%, down 53% since Dec. 25, the same period during which Ether fell 49% from $3,490, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Related: When will altseason arrive? Experts reveal what's holding back altcoins

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, which measures the top 100 cryptocurrencies against Bitcoin’s performance over the past 90 days, is reading a score of 14 out of 100, leaning toward a more Bitcoin-dominated market, referring to it as “Bitcoin Season.”

The Altcoin Season Index Chart is sitting at 14 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

However, while Bitcoin dominance — a level often watched for retracements that signal an altcoin season — sits at 62.84%, some analysts argue it’s no longer as relevant a signal for altcoin season.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Yu recently said that Bitcoin Dominance “no longer defines altseason — trading volume does.”