How to capture the exit signal of 60-minute moving average dead cross + daily MACD red column shrinking volume?

A 60-minute EMA dead cross with shrinking daily MACD red bars signals bearish exhaustion, suggesting short profit-taking or long caution.

Jul 26, 2025 at 10:51 am

Understanding the 60-Minute Moving Average Dead Cross

The 60-minute moving average dead cross is a technical signal that occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average on the 60-minute chart. Typically, traders use the 50-period and 200-period exponential moving averages (EMA) to identify this pattern. When the 50 EMA crosses below the 200 EMA, it signals a potential shift from a bullish to a bearish trend. This crossover is considered a strong bearish indicator, especially when confirmed by other technical tools.

To detect this signal accurately, open your preferred cryptocurrency trading platform such as TradingView, Binance, or Bybit. Navigate to the 60-minute time frame of your chosen asset—Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any altcoin. Apply both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA indicators. Watch closely for the moment the 50 EMA line crosses below the 200 EMA line. This visual confirmation is the core of the dead cross. It is critical to ensure the crossover is not temporary; wait for at least one full candle to close below the longer-term average to reduce false signals.

Avoid acting immediately upon the first sign of crossing. Instead, confirm the move with volume analysis. A genuine dead cross should be accompanied by increasing trading volume, indicating strong market participation in the downward momentum. Low-volume crossovers may result in false breakdowns and should be treated with caution.

Interpreting Daily MACD Red Column Shrinking Volume

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is composed of the MACD line, signal line, and histogram (the red and green bars). The red columns represent bearish momentum—when the MACD line is below the signal line. A shrinking red column means the downward momentum is weakening, even if the price is still declining.

To analyze this on the daily chart, switch your chart view to the 1-day time frame. Apply the standard MACD settings (12, 26, 9). Observe the histogram: when the red bars begin to shorten in height, it suggests that selling pressure is diminishing. This does not imply an immediate reversal but indicates that the downtrend may be losing strength.

This signal becomes significant when paired with the 60-minute dead cross. While the dead cross suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment, the shrinking red MACD column hints at exhaustion in the selling force. This contradiction can signal a potential pullback or consolidation phase, making it a possible exit point for short positions or a warning to long holders.

It is essential to distinguish between a temporary pause and a true reversal. A shrinking red column followed by a new expansion confirms ongoing bearish momentum. Only when the red bars continue to shrink and eventually flip to green should one consider a bullish shift.

Combining Both Signals for Exit Confirmation

To capture a reliable exit signal, both conditions must align:

• The 60-minute chart shows a confirmed dead cross (50 EMA below 200 EMA with a closed candle).
• The daily MACD histogram shows red columns that are visibly shrinking over at least two consecutive candles.

When both are present, the market may be entering a phase of bearish exhaustion. For traders in short positions, this combination suggests it may be time to secure profits before a potential bounce. For long holders, it may not yet be time to buy, but it serves as a warning that the downtrend could slow.

Set alerts on your trading platform:

• Use TradingView’s alert feature to notify you when the 50 EMA crosses below the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart.
• Manually monitor the daily MACD histogram for shrinking red bars, or use a script to detect decreasing histogram values.

Do not rely solely on visual inspection. Use script-based detection if possible. For example, in Pine Script (TradingView), you can write a condition that triggers when:

• crossunder(ema(close, 50), ema(close, 200)) on timeframe 60
• macdHistogram[0] > macdHistogram[1] and macdHistogram[0] < 0 (indicating shrinking negative volume)

Step-by-Step Exit Execution Strategy

To execute an exit based on this dual signal:

• Confirm the 60-minute dead cross by checking that the 50 EMA has closed below the 200 EMA on a full 60-minute candle.
• Switch to the daily chart and verify that the MACD histogram bars are red and decreasing in length over the last two daily candles.
• Check for volume confirmation on the 60-minute chart: the crossover candle should have above-average volume.
• Review recent price action for any oversold conditions on the daily RSI (below 30), which may support a pullback.
• Place a limit or market order to exit your position, depending on your risk tolerance. For short positions, this means buying to close. For long positions, consider reducing exposure.
• Set a stop-loss above the recent swing high if exiting a short, to protect against sudden upward moves.

Avoid emotional decisions. Stick to the predefined criteria. If either signal is missing or ambiguous, delay the exit.

Backtesting the Strategy on Historical Data

To validate this exit strategy, backtest it on historical cryptocurrency price data:

• Select a major asset like BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT.
• Use TradingView’s bar replay mode or a backtesting platform like Backtrader or QuantConnect.
• Apply the 50/200 EMA on the 60-minute chart and the MACD on the daily chart.
• Identify past instances where both signals occurred.
• Evaluate the price movement in the next 24–72 hours after the signal.

Record outcomes:

• Did the price rebound after the signal?
• How much profit was preserved by exiting early?
• Were there false signals that led to premature exits?

Adjust parameters if necessary—such as using SMA instead of EMA or modifying MACD settings—but maintain consistency once optimized.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does a shrinking red MACD column mean in a downtrend?

A shrinking red MACD column indicates that the bearish momentum is weakening. Even if the price continues to fall, the speed of the decline is slowing. This can precede a consolidation, reversal, or dead cat bounce.

Can the 60-minute dead cross occur without a daily MACD signal and still be valid?

Yes, the 60-minute dead cross is a standalone bearish signal. However, without confirmation from other indicators like the MACD, it may lead to early or false exits. Combining it with the MACD increases reliability.

How do I set up MACD on TradingView for this strategy?

Open the indicator panel, search for MACD, and apply it with default settings (12, 26, 9). Focus on the histogram: red bars below zero. Monitor for decreasing bar height on the daily chart.

Should I exit my long position when this signal appears?

This signal primarily warns of continuing or exhausting bearish momentum. Long holders may consider reducing position size or tightening stop-losses, but it is not a direct sell signal unless combined with other bearish confirmations.