XRP最近的集会可能是短暂的。鲸鱼活动，市场结构和SOPR数据表明潜在的校正即将到来。 XRP跌倒了吗？

XRP Whales, Market Structure, and SOPR: Is a Major Correction Brewing?

XRP鲸，市场结构和SOPR：主要更正酿造吗？

Hold on to your hats, XRP enthusiasts! While XRP has been making headlines, a closer look at whale behavior, market structure, and SOPR data suggests a bumpy ride ahead. Are we about to see a major correction?

XRP爱好者抓住您的帽子！虽然XRP一直是头条新闻，但仔细研究了鲸鱼的行为，市场结构和SOPR数据，这表明前进了颠簸。我们要看到重大更正吗？

Whales Cashing Out: A $68 Million Daily Exit

鲸鱼兑现：每日6800万美元出口

Data from Glassnode reveals that some of XRP's earliest and most profitable investors are offloading their tokens at an alarming rate. We're talking about a staggering $68 million per day, on a seven-day average. These whales, who jumped in before XRP's November 2024 breakout, are now locking in profits after seeing their investments grow by over 300%. This mass exodus is creating significant sell-side pressure, reminiscent of the pattern before XRP's 2017 market top.

来自GlassNode的数据表明，XRP最早，最有利可图的投资者正在以惊人的速度卸载其令牌。我们谈论的是，平均七天的平均每天6800万美元惊人。这些鲸鱼在XRP的2024年11月突破之前就跳入了这些鲸鱼，在看到其投资增长超过300％后，现在正在锁定利润。这种大规模出埃及记正在造成巨大的卖方压力，让人联想到XRP 2017年市场顶级之前的模式。

Top-Heavy Market Structure: A House of Cards?

最重的市场结构：纸牌屋？

Another red flag is XRP's top-heavy market structure. Over 70% of XRP's realized market cap was created between 2024 and early 2025, meaning most of the circulating supply was recently acquired. This makes the market fragile. When prices drop, newer holders are more likely to panic-sell, leading to sharper declines. It's like a skyscraper with a weak foundation – not a good look.

另一个危险信号是XRP最重的市场结构。 XRP已实现的市值超过70％是在2024年至2025年初之间创建的，这意味着最近获得了大部分循环供应。这使市场变得脆弱。当价格下跌时，更新的持有人更有可能惊慌失措，从而导致更加尖锐的人下降。这就像一个摩天大楼，底色较弱 - 看起来不好。

SOPR and Realized Prices: Trouble on the Horizon

SOPR和实现的价格：地平线上的麻烦

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric confirms the concerning outlook. Investors who bought XRP between 3 and 6 months ago (after the November 2024 rally) have an average purchase price of $2.28. With XRP trading around $2.14, they're barely breaking even. Meanwhile, those who bought 6-12 months ago have a cushion, but a further price drop could trigger another wave of selling. Analysts warn that if current holders continue to take profits or cut losses, XRP could face a 35% dump, potentially retesting the $1.35–$1.60 range.

支出的产出利润率（SOPR）度量确认了有关前景。在3到6个月前（2024年11月在拉力赛之后）购买XRP的投资者的平均购买价格为2.28美元。随着XRP的交易约为2.14美元，它们几乎没有打破。同时，那些在6-12个月前购买的人有一个缓冲，但进一步的价格下跌可能会触发另一波销售。分析师警告说，如果目前的持有人继续获利或削减损失，XRP可能会面临35％的垃圾场，可能会重新测试$ 1.35- $ 1.60的范围。

Bearish Chart Pattern: The Descending Wedge

看跌图表模式：下降楔子

Technical analysis reveals a descending wedge pattern on XRP charts, a bearish reversal signal during an uptrend. A break below the support line could send XRP spiraling downwards towards the $1.30 price floor. However, the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) offers a glimmer of hope. A rebound from this level could invalidate the bearish prediction and propel XRP towards $3.00 or higher.

技术分析揭示了XRP图表上的降楔模式，这是上升趋势期间的看跌逆转信号。在支撑线下方的休息可能会使XRP向下旋转到1.30美元的价格楼层。但是，为期50周的指数移动平均线（EMA）提供了一线希望。从这个级别的反弹可能使看跌预测无效，并将XRP推向$ 3.00或更高。

Senate Considers Digital Asset Market Structure

参议院考虑数字资产市场结构

On a separate note, the US Senate is exploring a bipartisan framework for digital asset market structure. A recent hearing included testimonies from Coinbase and Multicoin Capital, signaling a potential shift towards regulatory clarity. This development could have long-term implications for XRP and the broader crypto market, but the immediate focus remains on the bearish signals discussed above.

另外，美国参议院正在探索数字资产市场结构的两党框架。最近的听证会包括Coinbase和Multicoin Capital的证词，这表明潜在的转变向监管清晰度。这种发展可能会对XRP和更广泛的加密市场产生长期影响，但是直接的重点仍然放在上面讨论的看跌信号上。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up!

最终想法：搭扣！

While the future is never certain, the confluence of whale activity, market structure, SOPR data, and bearish chart patterns suggests that XRP might be in for a correction. Keep a close eye on the charts, manage your risk, and remember that even the wildest rides eventually come to an end. Whether XRP rebounds or takes a tumble, it's bound to be an interesting show!

尽管未来永远是不确定的，但鲸鱼活动，市场结构，SOPR数据和看跌图表模式的汇合表明，XRP可能需要进行更正。密切关注图表，管理您的风险，并记住，即使是最疯狂的游乐设施，最终也会结束。无论是XRP反弹还是滚滚，它都一定是一个有趣的节目！