XRP 与比特币：2025 年哪个更值得购买？

加密货币投资者将在 2024 年度过美好的一年。目前整个行业所有硬币和代币的总价值为 3.5 万亿美元

Cryptocurrency investors are having a banner year in 2024. The total value of all coins and tokens across the industry currently stands at $3.5 trillion, more than doubling from where it ended in 2023.

加密货币投资者将在 2024 年迎来辉煌的一年。整个行业所有硬币和代币的总价值目前为 3.5 万亿美元，比 2023 年结束时增加了一倍多。

Industry-leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC 3.55%) are responsible for most of that added value, but many tokens at the more speculative end of the market have also delivered solid gains. Even XRP (XRP 1.44%), which was under a dark regulatory cloud until recently, is up by 250% in 2024.

比特币（BTC 3.55%）等行业领先的加密货币贡献了大部分增值，但市场投机性较高的许多代币也带来了丰厚的收益。即使是直到最近还处于监管阴云之下的 XRP（XRP 1.44%），在 2024 年也上涨了 250%。

Falling interest rates are driving demand for growth assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. Investors are also hopeful that the incoming Trump administration will be more crypto-friendly than previous administrations. That could set the stage for new opportunities for the industry to create value.

利率下降正在推动对股票和加密货币等增长型资产的需求。投资者还希望即将上任的特朗普政府将比前几届政府对加密货币更加友好。这可能为该行业创造价值的新机会奠定基础。

XRP could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that regulatory shift, but will it be a better buy than Bitcoin in 2025?

XRP 可能是这一监管转变的最大受益者之一，但到 2025 年它会比比特币更划算吗？

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图片来源：盖蒂图片社。

The case for XRP (Ripple)

XRP（瑞波币）的案例

Global banking is complicated. Sending money around the world can take days. Some financial institutions use the SWIFT payment network, whereas others don't, which means they need an intermediary to act as a middleman for each transaction.

全球银行业很复杂。向世界各地汇款可能需要几天时间。一些金融机构使用 SWIFT 支付网络，而另一些金融机构则不使用，这意味着它们需要一个中介机构来充当每笔交易的中间人。

A company called Ripple sought to fix that problem. Its Ripple Payments (formerly RippleNet) network connects with all existing banking infrastructure, so financial institutions can talk to each other directly and settle transactions instantly.

一家名为 Ripple 的公司试图解决这个问题。其 Ripple Payments（以前称为 RippleNet）网络与所有现有的银行基础设施相连，因此金融机构可以直接相互对话并立即结算交易。

Ripple also created the XRP crypto token to standardize those transactions. For example, an American bank might send XRP to a Japanese bank rather than sending American dollars, which would eliminate currency exchange fees and other transaction costs. The two banks can then handle their own conversions from XRP to the fiat currency of their choice.

Ripple 还创建了 XRP 加密代币来标准化这些交易。例如，美国银行可能会将 XRP 发送到日本银行，而不是发送美元，这将消除货币兑换费用和其他交易成本。然后，两家银行可以自行处理从 XRP 到其选择的法定货币的兑换。

There are 100 billion XRP tokens in existence. 57 billion are in circulation, and Ripple holds the other 43 billion, releasing up to 1 billion per month to meet institutional demand. In 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Ripple, because the regulator believed the XRP token should be classified as a financial security (like a stock or a bond), which would place tight restrictions on how it is issued and how the company operates.

现有 1000 亿个 XRP 代币。流通中有 570 亿枚，Ripple 持有另外 430 亿枚，每月最多释放 10 亿枚以满足机构需求。 2020年，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）起诉Ripple，因为监管机构认为XRP代币应被归类为金融证券（如股票或债券），这将对其发行方式和方式施加严格限制该公司经营。

The lawsuit was partially resolved in August 2024. Ripple was hit with a $125 million fine. The judge determined that XRP was only a security in certain situations, such as when new tokens are sold to institutions, but not when it's traded on crypto exchanges or used in transactions.

该诉讼于 2024 年 8 月部分解决。Ripple 被处以 1.25 亿美元罚款。法官确定，XRP 仅在某些情况下才是证券，例如当新代币出售给机构时，但在加密货币交易所交易或用于交易时则不是。

The SEC is appealing the decision, but President-Elect Donald Trump recently nominated pro-crypto businessman Paul Atkins to run the regulatory agency during his administration (pending Senate approval). Therefore, investors are hoping that Ripple's legal woes will disappear after Jan. 20, once the new government takes office.

美国证券交易委员会正在对该决定提出上诉，但当选总统唐纳德·特朗普最近提名支持加密货币的商人保罗·阿特金斯在其执政期间管理该监管机构（等待参议院批准）。因此，投资者希望新政府上任后，Ripple 的法律困境能够在 1 月 20 日之后消失。

That's why the bulk of XRP's year-to-date gain occurred after the election on Nov. 5. But the token is trading at $2.21 as of this writing, which is still well below its record high of $3.40 from 2018. It could move higher next year, but XRP is still a speculative asset, so investors should exercise caution.

这就是为什么 XRP 年初至今的大部分涨幅发生在 11 月 5 日大选之后。但截至撰写本文时，该代币的交易价格为 2.21 美元，仍远低于 2018 年以来的历史高点 3.40 美元。它可能会走高明年，但 XRP 仍然是一种投机资产，因此投资者应谨慎行事。

The case for Bitcoin

比特币的案例

Unlike XRP, Bitcoin isn't backed by any individual or company that can issue more supply. There are 19.8 million Bitcoins in circulation right now, but there will only ever be a maximum of 21 million. The total supply is expected to be fully mined by the year 2140.

与 XRP 不同，比特币不受任何可以发行更多供应的个人或公司的支持。目前有 1980 万个比特币在流通，但最多只会达到 2100 万个。预计到 2140 年，总供应量将被完全开采。

As a result, Bitcoin has never faced the regulatory woes that Ripple did. In fact, the SEC even approved dozens of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this year, which give financial advisors and institutional investors a safer, regulated way to own it. The Bitcoin ETF industry already manages more than $110 billion in assets, so demand is incredibly strong.

因此，比特币从未面临过瑞波币那样的监管困境。事实上，美国证券交易委员会今年甚至批准了数十只比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），这为财务顾问和机构投资者提供了一种更安全、受监管的方式来拥有比特币。比特币 ETF 行业已经管理着超过 1100 亿美元的资产，因此需求非常强劲。

Bitcoin consistently climbed to new highs even after suffering steep corrections over the years, which isn't the case for most cryptocurrencies. Along with its limited supply and decentralized nature, that's a key reason why investors are warming up to it as a true store of value.

即使在经历了多年来的急剧调整之后，比特币仍然不断攀升至新高，而大多数加密货币的情况并非如此。除了其有限的供应和去中心化的性质之外，这也是投资者热衷于将其视为真正的价值储存手段的一个关键原因。

Some analysts refer to Bitcoin as a digital version of gold. The total value of all above-ground gold reserves currently stands at $17.7 trillion, so Bitcoin's market capitalization ($1.9 trillion as of this writing) would have to grow by 831% to catch up. That implies a price of around $893,000 per Bitcoin.

一些分析师将比特币称为黄金的数字版本。目前所有地上黄金储备的总价值为 17.7 万亿美元，因此比特币的市值（截至撰写本文时为 1.9 万亿美元）必须增长 831% 才能赶上。这意味着每个比特币的价格约为 893,000 美元。

Then there is Michael Saylor, the co-founder of MicroStrategy, which owns over 439,000 Bitcoins (which is more than 2% of the total supply). He predicts Bitcoin will soar

然后是 MicroStrategy 联合创始人 Michael Saylor，他拥有超过 439,000 枚比特币（占总供应量的 2% 以上）。他预测比特币将会飙升