鲸鱼在代币解锁前出售卡尔达诺（ADA）——分析

卡尔达诺 (ADA) 鲸鱼在过去 30 天内推动加密货币价格上涨 270%，现在在 ADA 解锁之前抛售

Cardano (ADA) price surged over 270% in the past 30 days.

卡尔达诺 (ADA) 价格在过去 30 天内飙升了 270% 以上。

Now, major ADA holders are selling ahead of the ADA unlock scheduled for this week.

现在，主要 ADA 持有者正在计划于本周 ADA 解锁之前抛售。

On Monday (2), the net flow of large ADA holders reached 63.58 million coins, indicating a strong buying trend among whales. Net flow measures the difference between tokens bought and sold by these participants. An increasing net flow indicates accumulation, while a decline indicates increasing selling pressure.

周一（2日），ADA大户净流量达到6358万枚，表明鲸鱼购买趋势强劲。净流量衡量这些参与者购买和出售的代币之间的差异。净流量增加表明吸筹，而净流量下降表明抛售压力增加。

Currently, the net inflow has dropped to 7.62 million ADA, according to IntoTheBlock. This suggests that whales have offloaded 55.96 million coins, either to take profits or rebalance their portfolios. At the current price, this sale amounts to a staggering $69 million.

据IntoTheBlock称，目前ADA净流入量已降至762万枚。这表明鲸鱼已经抛售了 5596 万枚代币，要么是为了获利，要么是为了重新平衡其投资组合。按目前价格计算，这笔销售额达到惊人的 6900 万美元。

In this sense, the recent sale could be tied to the upcoming token unlock on December 6th.

从这个意义上说，最近的销售可能与即将于 12 月 6 日解锁的代币有关。

Net Flow of Large Cardano Holders. Source: IntoTheBlock

大型卡尔达诺持有者的净流量。来源：IntoTheBlock

Token unlocks, which release previously restricted assets into circulation, often cause significant price movements by altering supply and demand dynamics.

代币解锁将之前受限制的资产释放到流通中，通常会通过改变供需动态而导致价格大幅波动。

According to Tokenomist (formerly Token Unlocks), Cardano is set to release 18.53 million ADA on that date, valued at $22.79 million. This anticipated supply shock could introduce volatility, potentially hindering the altcoin’s ability to maintain an uptrend during this period.

据 Tokenomist（原 Token Unlocks）称，Cardano 将于当天发行 1853 万枚 ADA，价值 2279 万美元。这种预期的供应冲击可能会带来波动，从而可能阻碍山寨币在此期间保持上升趋势的能力。

Cardano Token Unlock. Source: Tokenomist

卡尔达诺代币解锁。来源：Tokenomist

Price prediction

价格预测

On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands (BB) have widened, indicating increased volatility. BBs also highlight whether an asset is overbought or oversold. When the price touches the upper band, it signals an overbought condition, while contact with the lower band indicates oversold territory. Therefore, the image below confirms the thesis that ADA is overbought.

日线图上，布林带（BB）已经扩大，表明波动性增加。 BB 还强调资产是否超买或超卖。当价格触及上限时，表明超买状况，而触及下限则表明超卖区域。因此，下图证实了 ADA 超买的论点。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, also points to this scenario. When the RSI reading is above 70, it is overbought. Conversely, when the reading is below 30, it is oversold.

衡量动量的相对强弱指数（RSI）也表明了这种情况。当 RSI 读数高于 70 时，即处于超买状态。反之，当读数低于30时，则为超卖。

Cardano Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

卡尔达诺每日分析。来源：TradingView

Currently, the RSI is at 82.15, firmly placing ADA in overbought territory. Given this condition, a price correction to $0.92 could be next. However, if whales resume accumulation, the trend could change, potentially pushing the price above $1.33.

目前，RSI 为 82.15，ADA 坚定地处于超买区域。鉴于这种情况，下一步价格可能会调整至 0.92 美元。然而，如果鲸鱼恢复增持，趋势可能会改变，有可能推动价格突破 1.33 美元。