资深交易员拥抱“五月卖出，走开”比特币

Coinbureau 联合创始人 Nic Puckrin 表示，“五月卖出然后走开”策略历来为比特币带来了正回报。过去五年，10月买入、4月卖出，收益为1,449%，而5月买入、9月卖出，则亏损29%。帕克林认为，当前的市场状况，例如交易量低、期货溢价下降以及零售情绪消退，今年可能会出现类似的模式。

Bitcoin's Seasonality: Seasoned Traders Adhere to the 'Sell in May, Go Away' Strategy

比特币的季节性：经验丰富的交易者坚持“五月卖出，走开”策略

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a prolonged period of heightened volatility, and the flagship asset, Bitcoin (BTC), has been subjected to considerable fluctuations. Savvy investors have employed various strategies to mitigate risks and maximize returns, with one time-honored adage gaining renewed attention: "Sell in May, Go Away."

加密货币市场经历了长期的剧烈波动，旗舰资产比特币（BTC）也遭受了相当大的波动。精明的投资者采用了各种策略来降低风险并最大化回报，一句古老的格言重新受到关注：“五月卖出，走开”。

This strategy advocates liquidating Bitcoin holdings in May and repurchasing them in October, based on historical data suggesting a seasonal pattern of higher returns during this period. According to Coinbureau co-founder Nic Puckrin, the strategy has yielded impressive cumulative returns of 1,449% over the past five years. In contrast, buying Bitcoin in May and selling in September has resulted in a significant loss of 29%.

该策略主张在 5 月份清算比特币持有量，并在 10 月份回购它们，因为历史数据表明这一时期存在季节性较高回报的模式。 Coinbureau 联合创始人 Nic Puckrin 表示，该策略在过去五年中累计回报率高达 1,449%，令人印象深刻。相比之下，5 月份买入比特币并在 9 月份卖出比特币，导致了 29% 的大幅损失。

Puckrin's analysis delves into the intricate factors that influence Bitcoin's price trajectory. He observes that daily trading volume and volatility have declined to two-month lows, while futures premiums have reached their lowest point in three months. This waning market activity suggests a diminished bullish sentiment among institutional investors.

帕克林的分析深入研究了影响比特币价格轨迹的复杂因素。他观察到，每日交易量和波动性已降至两个月低点，而期货溢价已达到三个月来的最低点。市场活动的减弱表明机构投资者的看涨情绪减弱。

Moreover, retail sentiment, as measured by social media buzz and search trends, is also waning. The Fear & Greed Index, a composite indicator of market sentiment, has entered neutral territory, indicating a lack of consensus among investors.

此外，通过社交媒体热度和搜索趋势衡量的零售情绪也在减弱。市场情绪综合指标“恐惧与贪婪指数”已进入中性区域，表明投资者缺乏共识。

The macroeconomic environment further exacerbates the challenges facing Bitcoin. The global economy grapples with rising interest rates, escalating inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties. These factors have contributed to a reduction in risk appetite, leading to a withdrawal of liquidity from the cryptocurrency market.

宏观经济环境进一步加剧了比特币面临的挑战。全球经济面临着利率上升、通货膨胀加剧和地缘政治不确定性的挑战。这些因素导致风险偏好下降，导致流动性从加密货币市场撤出。

Despite these headwinds, Puckrin identifies a potential catalyst for a market recovery: the draining of the Treasury General Account. This could inject up to $1.4 trillion into the financial system, potentially providing a much-needed boost to risk assets, including Bitcoin.

尽管存在这些不利因素，帕克林还是发现了市场复苏的潜在催化剂：财政部普通账户的耗尽。这可能会向金融体系注入高达 1.4 万亿美元，从而可能为包括比特币在内的风险资产提供急需的提振。

However, the timing and magnitude of any such stimulus depend on a complex web of factors, including the labor market, GDP growth, and the Biden administration's political objectives.

然而，任何此类刺激措施的时机和规模都取决于一系列复杂的因素，包括劳动力市场、GDP 增长和拜登政府的政治目标。

Should historical patterns hold true, the crypto market may experience a period of consolidation over the next few months. The "Sell in May, Go Away" strategy provides investors with a structured framework for navigating this potential market lull.

如果历史模式成立，加密货币市场可能会在未来几个月经历一段整合期。 “五月卖出，走开”策略为投资者提供了一个结构化的框架，以应对潜在的市场平静。

As the digital asset landscape continues to evolve, industry experts will delve into the intricacies of Bitcoin's institutional appeal at the upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on November 19. This highly anticipated event will provide invaluable insights into the future of Bitcoin and its role in the broader financial ecosystem.

随着数字资产格局的不断发展，行业专家将在 11 月 19 日即将举行的 Benzinga 数字资产未来活动上深入探讨比特币机构吸引力的复杂性。这一备受期待的活动将为比特币的未来及其在金融领域的作用提供宝贵的见解。更广泛的金融生态系统。