特朗普的关税如何振作加密，债券和比特币作为避风港的角色

2025年4月5日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）对其他国家征收至少10％的关税，其中一些税率更高

On April 5, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed at least a 10% tariff on other countries, with some slapped at higher rates—the European Union at 20%, Japan at 24%, and China at 34%. This also ignited global recession fears that caused investors to sell off risk assets.

2025年4月5日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）对其他国家征收至少10％的关税，其中一些税率更高，欧盟为20％，日本为24％，中国为34％。这也引发了全球衰退的担忧，导致投资者出售风险资产。

Less than a week after the imposition, Trump announced a temporary halt to the tariff. This, however, led to a bullish run in the crypto market.

强加后不到一周，特朗普宣布暂时停止关税。但是，这导致了加密货币市场的看涨。

Similar to cryptocurrencies, another investment asset has been impacted by tariffs and other economic moves by the U.S. government. And apparently, it has a relationship with the crypto market—most specifically Bitcoin. These are U.S. Treasuries.

与加密货币类似，美国政府受到关税和其他经济迁移的影响。显然，它与加密货币市场有关系 - 特别是比特币。这些是我们的国库。

Financial Securities: How Can They Be Affected by Even a Single Economic Move

金融证券：即使是一次经济迁移，它们如何受到影响

In an April 4, 2025, analysis—a day before the new tariff imposition—financial markets aggregator Barchart reported that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since October 2024.

在2025年4月4日的分析（在新的关税征收之前的一天）中，金融市场聚合商Barchart报告说，自2024年10月以来，美国10年期债收益率首次下降了4％。

According to Barchart, the drop in the U.S. Treasury yield was due to investor fears over growing economic uncertainty, including tariffs, a possible recession and a rate cut by the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve.

根据巴尔查特（Barchart）的说法，美国财政收益率的下降是由于投资者担心经济不确定性的越来越多，包括关税，可能的衰退和美国央行美联储削减的税率。

And because U.S. Treasury yields include interest rates on government-issued bonds, Treasury bond yields also experienced a drop at that time.

而且，由于美国财政部收益率包括政府发行的债券的利率，所以当时的财政债券收益率也有所下降。

However, on April 7, 2025, the first Monday after the tariff, Treasury bond yields surged while equities declined. Historically, these two securities are inversely related in terms of performance.

但是，在2025年4月7日，即关税之后的第一个星期一，国库券的收益激增，而股票下降。从历史上看，这两种证券在绩效方面是成反比的。

According to the online publication AInvest, because Trump’s tariff caused stock markets to meltdown, investor demand for U.S. Treasuries—including bonds—fluctuated.

根据在线出版物Ainvest的说法，由于特朗普的关税导致股票市场崩溃，投资者对美国国债（包括债券）的需求汇集起来。

Then Here Comes Bitcoin: Its Relationship w/ Financial Securities

然后是比特币：与金融证券的关系

Pre-tariff imposition, where the U.S. treasury yield was struggling, the crypto market was having a positive rally, including BTC.

宣布前征收的，美国财政部收益挣扎的地方，加密货币市场在包括BTC在内的积极集会。

Moreover, historical data shows that when the U.S. Treasury yield struggles, investors tend to seek other investment assets which could offer higher returns, including BTC, which increases liquidity and risk appetite.

此外，历史数据还表明，当美国财政部收益斗争时，投资者倾向于寻求其他投资资产，这些资产可以提供更高的回报，包括BTC，这会增加流动性和风险偏好。

“The irony is that when yields fall, there’s less reason to sit in ‘safe’ bonds— And ultimately more reason to chase returns in risk assets like BTC and alts. This is why you see risk-on bulls get excited when 10-year yields begin falling.”

“具有讽刺意味的是，当收益率下降时，有更少的理由坐在'安全''债券中，最终有更多理由追逐BTC和ALTS等风险资产的回报。这就是为什么当10年期收益率开始下降时，风险持续的公牛会感到兴奋的原因。”

On the other hand, the post-tariff period caused U.S. Treasury yields to rise while the crypto market and equities went down. Investors sought less risky investment assets with fixed interest, unlike BTC, which is volatile in nature.

另一方面，竞选后时期导致美国国库的收益率上升，而加密市场和股票下跌。与BTC不同，投资者要求使用固定利息的风险投资资产较少，而BTC本质上是波动的。

“If inflation continues to exceed expectations, central banks might maintain a tighter monetary policy for longer periods, which historically has been unfavorable for risk assets. This potential shift necessitates a reevaluation of Bitcoin’s role in diversified portfolios, particularly as it may increasingly function independently from equities.”

“如果通货膨胀率继续超过预期，中央银行可能会在更长的时间内维持更严格的货币政策，这在历史上对风险资产不利。这种潜在的转变必须重新评估比特币在多元化投资组合中的作用，尤其是因为它越来越多地独立于公平运作。”

However, in terms of a long-term store of value, BTC is seen as the better asset. Analysts believe Trump’s aggressive tariff policy could produce inflationary pressure—tariff-related costs would rise, consumer prices would follow, and the global economy could be affected.

但是，就长期价值存储而言，BTC被视为更好的资产。分析人士认为，特朗普的积极关税政策可能会产生通货膨胀压力 - 与卫生相关的成本将上升，消费者价格随之而来，并且全球经济可能会受到影响。

This, in turn, could cause investors to choose BTC over other investment instruments.

反过来，这可能会导致投资者选择BTC而不是其他投资工具。

Lastly, if the Federal Reserve decides to use QE to improve the country’s economic situation, BTC and the crypto market could recover and experience a bullish rally, according to Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, a peer-to-peer trading platform specializing in leveraged contracts traded in BTC.

最后，如果美联储决定利用量化宽松来改善该国的经济状况，BTC和加密货币市场可以恢复并体验看涨的集会，这是一家专门从事BTC交易合同的同伴交易平台Bitmex的创始人Arthur Hayes。

“We need Fed easing, the 2yr treasury yield dumped after Tariff announcement because the market is telling us the Fed will be cutting soon and possibly restarting QE to counter -ve economic impact.”

“我们需要轻松放松，在关税公告后倾倒了2年的国库，因为市场告诉我们美联储将尽快减少，并可能重新启动量化宽松以抵制经济影响。”

The same sentiment was expressed by crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, who stated that BTC could reach its new all-time high if the Federal Reserve opts for QE.

加密分析师Miles Deutscher表达了同样的观点，他说，如果美联储选择量化宽松，BTC可以达到其新的历史最高水平。

To Conclude

总结

Here is how financial securities and BTC behave according to different economic situations.

这是金融证券和BTC根据不同的经济情况的行为。

This article is published on BitPinas: How Trump's Tariffs Are Shaking Up Crypto, Bonds, and Bitcoin's Role as a Safe Haven

本文发表了有关Bitpinas的文章：特朗普的关税如何振作加密，债券和比特币作为避风港的角色