特朗普的美联储主席人选：凯文·沃什上任，华尔街观察

特朗普总统任命凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）担任下一任美联储主席，这在市场（尤其是加密货币市场）中引发了连锁反应，因为投资者正在权衡可能更加鹰派的货币政策的影响。

President Donald Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh to take the reins as the next Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, a move that’s got the financial district buzzing and the crypto crowd feeling a little queasy. Announced via Truth Social, this decision signals a significant shake-up in Washington’s approach to monetary policy, replacing current Chair Jerome Powell. The nomination now heads to the Senate, where Capitol Hill is sure to give Warsh a thorough once-over.

唐纳德·特朗普总统正式提名凯文·沃什 (Kevin Warsh) 担任下一任美联储主席，这一举动引起了金融区的热议，而加密货币人群也感到有点不安。这一决定通过 Truth Social 宣布，标志着华盛顿货币政策方针的重大调整，取代了现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell)。提名现在将提交给参议院，国会山肯定会对沃什进行彻底的审视。

A Maestro for the Money Machine?

赚钱机器大师？

Trump didn't mince words, hailing Warsh as a "standout figure" poised to become one of the greatest Fed chairmen. And it's not hard to see why Warsh caught the President's eye. This isn't Warsh's first rodeo at the Fed; he served as a governor from 2006 to 2011, making him the youngest ever appointed at just 35. During his tenure, he was the central bank’s global ambassador, representing the U.S. at G-20 meetings and navigating complex economic landscapes in Asia. His resume reads like a who’s who of economic influence, from senior economic adviser in the White House to a stint at Morgan Stanley and a partnership with Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne Family Office. Currently, he's shaping minds at Stanford and the Hoover Institution, even advising foreign central banks on reform.

特朗普毫不拐弯抹角，称赞沃什是一位“杰出人物”，有望成为最伟大的美联储主席之一。不难理解为什么沃什引起了总统的注意。这并不是沃什第一次在美联储亮相。他于 2006 年至 2011 年间担任央行行长，年仅 35 岁，是有史以来最年轻的央行行长。在任职期间，他担任央行全球大使，代表美国出席 20 国集团会议，并应对亚洲复杂的经济形势。他的简历读起来就像是一位具有经济影响力的名人录，从白宫的高级经济顾问到摩根士丹利的工作经历，以及与杜肯家族办公室的斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的合伙人。目前，他正在斯坦福大学和胡佛研究所塑造思想，甚至为外国央行提供改革建议。

Trump’s rationale for picking Warsh seems clear: a blend of deep institutional knowledge of the Fed’s inner workings combined with real-world market experience. This isn't just a political appointment; it's a strategic play for someone who understands both the theory and the street.

特朗普选择沃什的理由似乎很明确：对美联储内部运作的深入机构了解与现实世界的市场经验相结合。这不仅仅是一次政治任命，更是一次政治任命。对于既了解理论又了解街道的人来说，这是一种战略游戏。

What's on Warsh's Economic Playlist?

Warsh 的经济播放列表中有哪些内容？

The big question on everyone’s mind, from Park Avenue to Main Street, is what kind of conductor Warsh will be for the nation’s economy. Analysts are already poring over his past statements, trying to read the tea leaves. Some, like Carson Group’s Sonu Varghese, suggest a Warsh-led Fed could “tilt hawkish at the margin,” potentially shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet – a move that could drain liquidity from markets. Others, including Wealth Club’s Susannah Streeter, note Warsh has recently leaned towards rate cuts but would likely "hold the line" if inflation flared up again. It's a delicate dance, and while any Trump nominee is generally expected to favor lower rates, Warsh will need to rally the other eleven voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee. He’s also historically been a skeptic of cryptocurrencies, citing their volatility, though the Fed’s direct influence on crypto has mainly been through broader monetary policy.

从公园大道到大街，每个人都在思考的一个大问题是，沃什将成为国家经济的什么样的指挥者。分析师们已经在仔细研究他过去的言论，试图解读其中的含义。卡森集团(Carson Group)的索努·瓦尔盖斯(Sonu Varghese)等一些人表示，沃什领导的美联储可能会“略微偏向鹰派”，从而可能缩小央行的资产负债表 — — 此举可能会耗尽市场流动性。其他人，包括财富俱乐部的苏珊娜·斯特里特（Susannah Streeter）指出，沃什最近倾向于降息，但如果通胀再次爆发，他可能会“坚持到底”。这是一场微妙的舞蹈，虽然特朗普的提名人通常都会支持降低利率，但沃什需要团结联邦公开市场委员会的其他 11 名有投票权的成员。他历来也对加密货币持怀疑态度，理由是其波动性，尽管美联储对加密货币的直接影响主要是通过更广泛的货币政策。

Markets Get the Jitters: Bitcoin Takes a Dive

市场感到不安：比特币暴跌

Before the ink was even dry on Trump's Truth Social post, markets were already reacting, and not always in a good way. Bitcoin, the digital darling, saw its price tumble, dropping significantly from its October highs. Ethereum followed suit. Wall Street futures also slipped as the betting markets, which had put Warsh’s nomination odds as high as 94% on Polymarket, breathed a collective sigh of "it's happening."

在特朗普的《真相社会》帖子墨迹未干之前，市场就已经做出了反应，而且反应并不总是很好。数字宠儿比特币的价格暴跌，从 10 月份的高点大幅下跌。以太坊也紧随其后。华尔街期货也下跌，因为博彩市场（Polymarket 上沃什的提名赔率高达 94%）集体叹息“这一切正在发生”。

The market jitters stem from the fear that a more hawkish Fed, one keen on shrinking its balance sheet, could pull the rug out from under "easy money" trades, including many in the crypto sphere. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had seen outflows earlier in the week, didn't help the sentiment. Beyond the Fed, broader risk sentiment, fueled by questions about Big Tech's AI spending, also played a role in the market's recent slide. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East certainly add to the global uncertainty, the potential shift at the Fed is clearly the main event for those watching their portfolios.

市场的不安源于人们担心，更加鹰派的美联储（热衷于收缩资产负债表）可能会从“宽松货币”交易中撤出，包括加密货币领域的许多交易。本周早些时候出现资金流出的现货比特币 ETF 并没有提振市场情绪。除了美联储之外，对大型科技公司人工智能支出的质疑推动了更广泛的风险情绪，也在市场近期的下滑中发挥了作用。虽然中东地缘政治紧张局势肯定会增加全球不确定性，但对于那些关注其投资组合的人来说，美联储的潜在转变显然是主要事件。

The Road Ahead: A New Chapter for the Fed

未来之路：美联储的新篇章

So, there you have it. The President has made his pick, and the financial world is now bracing for a new chapter. Kevin Warsh, with his unique blend of academic rigor, Wall Street savvy, and central bank experience, is set to step into one of the most powerful economic roles on the planet. Whether he steers the ship towards calm waters or navigates a storm of hawkish policy remains to be seen. One thing's for sure, it's going to be an interesting ride, and everyone on the Street will be watching with bated breath. Don’t bet the farm just yet, but do grab some popcorn!

所以，你就知道了。总统已经做出了选择，金融界现在正准备翻开新的篇章。凯文·沃什 (Kevin Warsh) 凭借其独特的学术严谨性、华尔街悟性和央行经验，将成为全球最有权势的经济角色之一。他是带领这艘船驶向平静的水域，还是驾驭鹰派政策的风暴，还有待观察。有一点是肯定的，这将是一次有趣的旅程，街上的每个人都会屏息观看。暂时不要赌农场，但一定要买一些爆米花！