长期比特币持有者抛售，给加密货币分析师带来危险信号

随着长期比特币持有者抛售所持比特币引发担忧，加密货币分析师发出了危险信号。据 CryptoCon 报道，这些持有者的活动激增表明了抛售旧币的趋势。 “销毁代币天数”指标反映了这一点，表明休眠代币的流动显着增加。长期持有者抛售的增加在加密货币社区引起了轰动。

Are Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Unloading?

长期比特币持有者正在抛售吗？

Crypto analysts are raising the red flag over a surge in activity by long-term Bitcoin holders. CryptoCon reports a spike in the spending and transfer of old coins, indicating that investors who've held BTC for a while are hitting the sell button.

加密货币分析师对长期比特币持有者的活动激增发出了危险信号。 CryptoCon 报告称，旧代币的支出和转移激增，表明持有 BTC 一段时间的投资者正在按下卖出按钮。

This trend is reflected in the "coin days destroyed" metric, which measures the number of coins moved and their dormancy period before transfer. A high coin days destroyed value suggests that a lot of BTC is being sold by long-term holders.

这一趋势反映在“币销毁天数”指标中，该指标衡量移动的币数量及其在转移前的休眠期。较高的代币销毁天数表明长期持有者正在出售大量比特币。

Historical Significance

历史意义

Historically, such sell-offs have coincided with market tops for Bitcoin. Analysts note only a few instances where this level of long-term holder selling didn't signal a price ceiling: during the 2018 bear market and a consolidation period in 2019.

从历史上看，这种抛售与比特币的市场顶部同时发生。分析师指出，只有少数情况表明，这种长期持有者抛售水平并不预示着价格上限：2018年熊市和2019年盘整期。

Near-Term Implications

近期影响

Analysts are concerned about BTC's near-term trajectory. Some speculate that this could be a prelude to new highs, while others worry that it's an early sign of an overheated bull cycle and a potential correction.

分析师对比特币的近期走势感到担忧。一些人猜测这可能是新高的前奏，而另一些人则担心这是牛市周期过热和潜在修正的早期迹象。

Forecasting a Pullback

预测回调

EGRAG CRYPTO, a crypto strategist, draws parallels to the 2017 market cycle and predicts a 30-40% pullback for Bitcoin in the coming months before the uptrend resumes. During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin saw several corrections before reaching record prices.

加密货币策略师 EGRAG CRYPTO 将 2017 年的市场周期与 2017 年的市场周期进行了比较，并预测比特币在未来几个月恢复上升趋势之前将回调 30-40%。在 2017 年牛市期间，比特币在达到创纪录价格之前经历了几次调整。

Alternative Views

另类观点

Not all analysts believe a deep retracement is inevitable. Some remain optimistic that Bitcoin will continue to grind higher, allowing other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana to surge against BTC.

并非所有分析师都认为深度回调是不可避免的。一些人仍然乐观地认为比特币将继续走高，从而使以太坊和 Solana 等其他加密货币相对于 BTC 的价格飙升。

Crucial Test

关键测试

The next few weeks will be a critical test for BTC. If it can overcome this latest round of long-term holder profit-taking and push past resistance, it could pave the way for another leg up. However, a rejection could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a more prolonged pullback.

接下来的几周将是对 BTC 的关键考验。如果它能够克服最新一轮长期持有者获利了结并突破阻力，则可能为另一次上涨铺平道路。然而，拒绝可能会使比特币容易遭受更长时间的回调。

Additional Insights

额外的见解

For more insights, check out our article on BlockDAG's impressive performance in 2024, which has outpaced its peers Stack and ONDO despite their own strong showings.

如需更多见解，请查看我们关于 BlockDAG 在 2024 年令人印象深刻的表现的文章，尽管其表现强劲，但仍超过了同行 Stack 和 ONDO。