目标股票反应过度——巨大的异常看跌期权交易量表明 TGT 的下跌有些过度

TGT 周五收于 125.01 美元，较前日低点 121.59 美元上涨 2.42%。与 156.56 美元的价格相比，下跌了 34.59 美元，即 -22%

Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) stock has dropped 20% since its disappointing Q3 earnings on Nov. 20. But on Friday, Nov. 22, TGT stock began to rebound, rising 2.42% for the session. It closed at $125.01, up from the day-before trough price of $121.59.

自 11 月 20 日令人失望的第三季度盈利以来，塔吉特公司 (NYSE:TGT) 股价已下跌 20%。但在 11 月 22 日星期五，TGT 股价开始反弹，当日上涨 2.42%。收盘价为 125.01 美元，高于前一天的最低价 121.59 美元。

However, TGT stock is still down $34.59, or 22%, from its price of $156.56 before the earnings release. But several analysts, including me, believe that TGT stock has overshot to the downside and is now undervalued.

然而，TGT 股价仍较财报发布前的 156.56 美元下跌 34.59 美元，即 22%。但包括我在内的几位分析师认为，TGT 股票已经过度下跌，目前估值被低估。

I discussed this situation in my Nov. 20 Barchart article, “Target Stock Overreaction - Huge Unusual Put Option Volume Signals TGT's Drop is Overdone.” I argued that TGT stock was worth at least $143 per share, based on the company's likely free cash flow (FCF) margins next year.

我在 11 月 20 日的条形图文章“目标股票过度反应 - 巨大的异常看跌期权交易量表明 TGT 的下跌已经过度”中讨论了这种情况。我认为，根据该公司明年可能的自由现金流 (FCF) 利润率，TGT 股票的价值至少为每股 143 美元。

That means that even after Friday's gain, TGT stock is still worth 16% more. Here's how I arrived at that valuation.

这意味着即使在周五上涨之后，TGT 股票的价值仍然上涨了 16%。以下是我得出这个估值的方法。

Based on analysts' forecasts of $109 billion in revenue next year, with a 2.0% FCF margin, free cash flow could be $2.18 billion. Even if FCF drops to $2.00 billion, TGT stock could still be cheap. Here's why.

根据分析师预测明年收入为 1090 亿美元，自由现金流利润率为 2.0%，自由现金流可能为 21.8 亿美元。即使 FCF 跌至 20 亿美元，TGT 股票仍可能很便宜。原因如下。

Using a 3.0% FCF yield, the market valuation would eventually be worth $66.67 billion ($2.0b in est. FCF 2025 / 0.03 = $66.67 billion).

使用 3.0% 的 FCF 收益率，市场估值最终将达到 666.7 亿美元（预计 2025 年 FCF 为 2.0b / 0.03 = 666.7 亿美元）。

This is 16.1% higher than its market cap of $57.41 billion today ($66.67b target mkt cap / $57.41 = 1.161).

这比目前 574.1 亿美元的市值高出 16.1%（目标市值为 66.67b 美元/57.41 美元 = 1.161）。

In other words, TGT stock is worth 16.1% more than $125.01 ($1.161 x $125.01 = $145.13 per share).

换句话说，TGT 股票的价值比 125.01 美元高出 16.1%（1.161 美元 x 125.01 美元 = 每股 145.13 美元）。

Other analysts see the stock as undervalued as well.

其他分析师也认为该股被低估。

Analysts See TGT Stock Undervalued

分析师认为 TGT 股票被低估

For example, Yahoo! Finance says its survey of 37 analysts shows an average price target of $143.41 per share. That is close to my price target and still 14.7% higher than today's price.

例如，雅虎！ Finance 称，其对 37 名分析师的调查显示，平均目标价为每股 143.41 美元。这接近我的目标价格，但仍比今天的价格高 14.7%。

In addition, Barchart's survey has a mean target price of $156.90 or 25.5% higher. Similarly, AnaChart.com, a new fintech site that tracks sell-side analysts and their price targets, shows that the average of 23 analysts is $153.95 per share, 23% higher than Friday's close.

此外，Barchart 的调查得出的平均目标价为 156.90 美元，即高出 25.5%。同样，跟踪卖方分析师及其目标价格的新金融科技网站 AnaChart.com 显示，23 位分析师的平均股价为每股 153.95 美元，比周五收盘价高出 23%。

The bottom line is that Target stock now looks undervalued. But it could take a good while for the stock to rebound. After all, investors are nervous that Target's holiday season might not turn out well.

最重要的是，塔吉特股票现在看起来被低估了。但该股可能需要一段时间才能反弹。毕竟，投资者担心塔吉特的假日季可能不会有好结果。

Therefore, let's look at an alternative way to play TGT stock: buying long-dated call options with in-the-money (ITM) strike prices.

因此，让我们看看另一种投资 TGT 股票的方法：购买价内 (ITM) 执行价格的长期看涨期权。

In-the-Money Long-Dated TGT Calls

实值长期 TGT 看涨期权

For example, look at the Jan. 16, 2026 expiration call option chain. This is 421 days from now, or almost 1 year and 2 months away. That allows the investor to hold these calls over one year and potentially not have to pay short-term capital gains taxes on any profits.

例如，看看 2026 年 1 月 16 日到期的看涨期权链。距离现在还有 421 天，或者说差不多有 1 年零 2 个月了。这使得投资者可以持有这些看涨期权一年以上，并且可能不必为任何利润缴纳短期资本利得税。

Here is what is interesting. It makes sense to buy in-the-money (ITM) call options since these already have some intrinsic value embedded in their price. That provides some degree of downside protection as well as providing good leverage on the upside.

有趣的是。购买实值（ITM）看涨期权是有意义的，因为这些期权的价格已经包含了一些内在价值。这提供了一定程度的下行保护，并为上行提供了良好的杠杆作用。

For example, look at the $110.00 strike price calls. These are trading $15.01 below the $125.01 trading price, and so are already worth at least that amount.

例如，看一下 110.00 美元的执行价看涨期权。这些商品的交易价格比 125.01 美元低 15.01 美元，因此其价值至少已经达到这个水平。

However, the midprice premium is $23.50, meaning there is $23.50-$15.01, or $8.49 of excess or extrinsic value in the price. But, at least the intrinsic value represents 64% of the total premium paid.

然而，中间价溢价为 23.50 美元，这意味着价格中有 23.50-15.01 美元，即 8.49 美元的超额或外在价值。但是，内在价值至少占所付保费总额的 64%。

Moreover, the advantage is that to buy 1 contract representing 100 shares the outlay is only $2,350 per call option. To buy 100 shares at today's trading price, the investor would have to pay $12,501 (i.e., $1

此外，其优势在于，购买 1 份代表 100 股的合约，每个看涨期权的费用仅为 2,350 美元。要以今天的交易价格购买 100 股，投资者需要支付 12,501 美元（即 1 美元）