外面说话

我记得在除夕的文章中，我们乐观地说：我们继续看好加密市场的整体表现

Source: Talking Outside the Lines

资料来源：外面说话

I remember in the New Year's Eve article, we optimistically stated: we continue to be bullish on the overall performance of the crypto market in the first quarter of this year. If no black swan events occur, we might see a good market in February, and possibly Bitcoin reaching 110,000.

我记得在除夕篇文章中，我们乐观地说：我们继续对今年第一季度加密市场的整体业绩看涨。如果没有发生黑天鹅事件，我们可能会在二月份看到一个好的市场，可能的比特币达到110,000。

However, the reality is that we are facing Trump's tariff policies, a $1.5 billion hacking incident, the Argentine president's LIBRA token event… which has triggered a large-scale liquidation in the market. This further confirms what we often say: the market is unpredictable, we cannot control the market, the only thing we can control is our own positions.

但是，现实情况是，我们面临特朗普的关税政策，15亿美元的黑客事件，阿根廷总统的天秤座代币活动……这引发了市场上的大规模清算。这进一步证实了我们经常说的：市场是不可预测的，我们无法控制市场，我们唯一可以控制的是我们自己的立场。

Looking back at the FTX collapse in November 2022, the fear and greed index was only around 20 at that time, while the recent liquidation caused the fear and greed index to drop to 10, the lowest level since the bear market of 2022, with people's emotions shifting to extreme panic at an astonishing speed. As shown in the figure below.

回顾2022年11月的FTX崩溃，恐惧和贪婪指数当时只有20个左右，而最近的清算导致恐惧和贪婪指数降至10，这是自2022年熊市以来的最低水平，人们的情绪以惊人的速度转移到极端的恐慌。如下图所示。

But for those who manage their positions well, encountering such market conditions can also be a good opportunity, as the occurrence of such extreme market conditions seems to indicate that we may have approached a local bottom of the phase.

但是，对于那些很好地管理自己的职位的人来说，遇到这种市场状况也可能是一个很好的机会，因为这种极端市场状况的发生似乎表明我们可能已经接近了阶段的当地底部。

1. What should you do during large market fluctuations?

1。在大型市场波动中该怎么办？

At this stage, we may need to pay more attention to factors such as policies and capital flows. For example:

在此阶段，我们可能需要更多地关注政策和资本流量等因素。例如：

If the Trump administration continues to announce new tariff policies in the coming weeks, it may continue to exert short-term selling pressure on the market.

如果特朗普政府在未来几周内继续宣布新的关税政策，则可能会继续向市场施加短期销售压力。

If the situation remains unclear, there may be continued outflows, which would further negatively impact market sentiment. If inflows start to occur again, it could be a relatively good short-term signal.

如果情况尚不清楚，可能会有持续的流出，这将进一步对市场情绪产生负面影响。如果流入再次发生，则可能是一个相对良好的短期信号。

In terms of specific position management, we can take this opportunity to make some new optimizations. For example:

在特定的职位管理方面，我们可以借此机会进行一些新的优化。例如：

1) Continue to optimize your portfolio

1）继续优化您的投资组合

If you are not a short-term trading expert, then continue to hold your Bitcoin and do not easily give up your chips. At the same time, you can take necessary profits based on your holding cost and target (the old saying: buy in batches, sell in batches).

如果您不是短期交易专家，请继续握住比特币，不要轻易放弃筹码。同时，您可以根据自己的持有成本和目标获得必要的利润（老话：分批购买，分批卖出）。

If your risk tolerance is relatively low, you can continue to reduce your altcoin holdings, especially those without any bullish catalysts and weak rebounds. You should strictly follow your risk preferences for stop-loss or take-profit operations, and do not hold onto losing positions. Of course, if you have already strictly taken profits and are optimistic about a particular altcoin you bought, then you can continue to hold those altcoins.

如果您的风险承受能力相对较低，则可以继续减少山寨币持有量，尤其是那些没有任何看涨催化剂和较弱的篮板的持有量。您应该严格遵循对停止损失或替代业务运营的风险偏好，并且不坚持失去职位。当然，如果您已经严格拿走了利润并且对购买的特定山寨币感到乐观，那么您可以继续持有这些altcoins。

If your risk tolerance is relatively high and you still enjoy researching and buying altcoins, then focus on those relatively strong altcoins. For example, if BTC is falling, it doesn't fall or only falls slightly, and it rebounds first after BTC stops falling—these are relatively strong altcoins. Try not to buy those that have fallen significantly and you feel have hit the bottom or are very cheap. Even if you are speculating, do not bet on weak projects, and think carefully about your reasons for buying. The simplest idea is that if you cannot quickly list three reasons for buying it within 10 minutes, then do not buy it.

如果您的风险承受能力相对较高，并且您仍然喜欢研究和购买Altcoins，则将专注于那些相对强大的山寨币。例如，如果BTC下降，它不会下降或仅略微下降，并且在BTC停止掉落后首先反弹，这些是相对强大的Altcoins。尽量不要购买那些大量跌倒的人，您会觉得自己已经达到了最低点或非常便宜。即使您在猜测，也不要押注薄弱的项目，并仔细考虑购买原因。最简单的想法是，如果您无法快速列出在10分钟内购买的三个原因，请不要购买。

Also, continue to keep a certain amount of liquid funds (USDT/USDC) to deal with potential new black swan events.

此外，继续保留一定数量的流动资金（USDT/USDC）来应对潜在的新黑天鹅事件。

2) Continue to learn

2）继续学习

Reduce the time spent staring at the market and consider doing things you wanted to do before but didn't have the energy for, or things you are interested in. Staring at the market does not bring direct results; just set up some necessary monitoring alerts. If staring at the K-line could move the market with your thoughts, I would definitely stay awake 24 hours a day to watch it.

减少盯着市场所花费的时间，并考虑做您以前想做的事情，但没有精力或您感兴趣的事情。盯着市场不会带来直接的结果；只需设置一些必要的监视警报即可。如果盯着K-Line可以以您的想法转移市场，那么我肯定每天24小时保持清醒以观看它。

Alternatively, you can consider continuously utilizing your existing funds through various means. For example, you can pursue better investment returns with idle funds (if participating in on-chain stablecoin investments, be mindful of project risks; if participating in exchange stablecoin investments, pay attention to lock-up periods and do not lock your assets), as shown in the figure below.

另外，您可以考虑通过各种方式不断利用现有资金。例如，您可以通过空闲资金进行更好的投资回报（如果参与链稳定股票投资，请注意项目风险；如果参与Exchange Stablecoin投资，请注意锁定期限并不要锁定您的资产），如下图所示。

Additionally, you can use tools like Rootdata to find and research potential airdrop projects, engage in arbitrage operations using funding rates, etc. In short, use methods you like or understand to keep your investment portfolio growing continuously. Sometimes, small amounts of money are still money; do not always fantasize about making $1 million overnight and look down on various $1,000 opportunities.

此外，您可以使用rootdata之类的工具来查找和研究潜在的空投项目，使用资金率等进行套利操作。简而言之，使用您喜欢或理解的方法来保持投资组合不断增长。有时，少量的钱仍然是金钱。并不总是幻想一夜之间赚100万美元，并看不起各种$ 1,000的机会。

Moreover, it is not only in a bull market that one can make money. In fact, if we ignore the concepts of bull and bear markets, there are always various opportunities to make money in the market; it is just a matter of whether you can discover, understand, execute well,

此外，不仅在牛市中，人们都可以赚钱。实际上，如果我们忽略牛市和熊市的概念，总是会有各种机会在市场上赚钱。这只是您是否可以发现，理解，执行良好的问题，