股票与比特币：2025 年谁会脱颖而出？

2025 年即将到来，投资者正在关注其投资组合的两个主要竞争者：股票和比特币。每一款都具有独特的吸引力，但哪一款能够在未来的一年中真正大放异彩呢？

With 2025 just around the corner, investors are eyeing two major contenders for their portfolios: stocks and Bitcoin. Each offers a distinct appeal, but which one could truly shine in the year ahead?

2025 年即将到来，投资者正在关注其投资组合的两个主要竞争者：股票和比特币。每一款都具有独特的吸引力，但哪一款能够在未来的一年中真正大放异彩呢？

Let’s dive into the strengths and risks of each investment.

让我们深入了解每项投资的优势和风险。

Stocks: Poised for Growth Despite Challenges

股票：尽管面临挑战，仍有望实现增长

Despite a recent market hiccup when the private consumption deflator rose to 2.8%, stocks have remained strong.

尽管近期市场出现波动，私人消费平减指数升至 2.8%，但股市依然强劲。

The S&P 500 has seen impressive gains in 2023, up 26.47%, and barring a major reversal, it’s set for a second consecutive year of more than 20% growth—a rare feat in the past century.

标普 500 指数在 2023 年取得了令人印象深刻的涨幅，上涨了 26.47%，除非出现重大逆转，否则它将连续第二年增长超过 20%，这在上个世纪是罕见的壮举。

The only other times this has happened were in 1927-28, 1935-36, 1954-55, and 1995-96.

唯一发生过这种情况的是 1927-28 年、1935-36 年、1954-55 年和 1995-96 年。

Looking ahead to 2025, investors are keeping an eye on three crucial factors:

展望 2025 年，投资者正在关注三个关键因素：

Though the issue of tariffs, like a potential 25% tax on imports from Mexico and Canada, may ruffle some feathers, its impact is mostly confined to specific sectors, particularly the auto industry.

尽管关税问题（例如对墨西哥和加拿大的进口产品征收 25% 的关税）可能会激怒一些人，但其影响主要局限于特定行业，尤其​​是汽车行业。

If tariffs drive up car prices by $10,000, sales could drop by up to 1.1 million units, affecting giants like General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford (NYSE:F).

如果关税使汽车价格上涨 10,000 美元，销量可能会下降多达 110 万辆，从而影响通用汽车 (NYSE:GM) 和福特 (NYSE:F) 等巨头。

Still, investors are remaining bullish. In fact, they’ve pulled in $16.4 billion in U.S. equities over the past week, marking the seventh consecutive week of inflows.

尽管如此，投资者仍然看涨。事实上，过去一周他们已向美国股市吸资 164 亿美元，这是连续第七周资金流入。

Historically, when the S&P 500 ends November up more than 20%, December often continues the trend with an average return of 2.4%.

从历史上看，当标准普尔 500 指数 11 月底上涨超过 20% 时，12 月通常会延续这一趋势，平均回报率为 2.4%。

Bitcoin: A Digital Asset to Watch

比特币：值得关注的数字资产

Bitcoin’s market cap has soared to around $1.89 trillion, placing it on par with the top U.S. companies.

比特币的市值已飙升至约 1.89 万亿美元，与美国顶级公司持平。

Bitcoin’s 2025 trajectory hinges on whether investors’ hopes for the asset are realized—particularly with Trump’s growing crypto enthusiasm.

比特币 2025 年的轨迹取决于投资者对该资产的希望是否实现——尤其是在特朗普对加密货币热情日益高涨的情况下。

Under his leadership, there’s talk of creating a U.S. government post dedicated to digital assets, which would help regulate and promote the crypto space.

在他的领导下，有人讨论设立一个专门负责数字资产的美国政府职位，这将有助于监管和促进加密货币领域的发展。

Trump has already launched proposals to make the U.S. the world capital for cryptocurrencies, encourage favorable regulations, and even create a U.S. Bitcoin reserve.

特朗普已经提出了让美国成为世界加密货币之都、鼓励有利监管、甚至创建美国比特币储备的提议。

Corporate interest in Bitcoin is heating up, with companies like MicroStrategy leading the charge by amassing $18 billion in Bitcoin holdings and planning to increase that significantly.

企业对比特币的兴趣正在升温，MicroStrategy 等公司率先持有 180 亿美元的比特币，并计划大幅增加。

Other firms, from Jiva Technologies to Genius Group, are also diving into crypto as a hedge against inflation and a speculative play.

从 Jiva Technologies 到 Genius Group 等其他公司也纷纷涉足加密货币领域，以对冲通胀和投机行为。

However, Bitcoin’s future isn’t without hurdles.

然而，比特币的未来并非没有障碍。

Trump's plan for a national Bitcoin reserve, aimed at backing future debt and counteracting dollar depreciation, faces resistance from figures like Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

特朗普的国家比特币储备计划旨在支持未来债务并抵消美元贬值，但面临美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔等人物的阻力。

Questions remain, such as which institution would manage this reserve and where the funding would come from—whether from selling assets like gold or bonds, or increasing debt.

问题仍然存在，例如哪个机构将管理这笔储备以及资金从何而来——是来自出售黄金或债券等资产，还是来自增加债务。

Which Will Outshine in 2025?

2025 年哪个会脱颖而出？

Both stocks and Bitcoin offer exciting potential, but their paths forward are shaped by very different factors.

股票和比特币都提供了令人兴奋的潜力，但它们的前进道路是由截然不同的因素决定的。

Stocks are poised to continue benefiting from strong corporate performance and a favorable economic backdrop, although tariff risks and policy changes could disrupt the momentum.

尽管关税风险和政策变化可能会破坏这一势头，但股市仍将继续受益于强劲的企业业绩和有利的经济背景。

On the other hand, Bitcoin’s success will depend heavily on regulatory developments and government support, as well as continued corporate adoption.

另一方面，比特币的成功将在很大程度上取决于监管的发展和政府的支持，以及企业的持续采用。

Ultimately, the choice between the two comes down to your risk appetite and investment strategy.

最终，两者之间的选择取决于您的风险偏好和投资策略。

Whether you lean towards the steady growth of equities or the high-risk, high-reward nature of digital currencies, 2025 promises plenty of opportunities for savvy investors.

无论您倾向于股票的稳定增长还是数字货币的高风险、高回报性质，2025 年都会为精明的投资者带来大量机会。

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