以太币现货 ETF 推出时间移至 2024 年 7 月 8 日； ETH/BTC 货币对被吹捧为便宜货

据猜测，现货 ETF 上线后，ETH 的表现可能会优于 BTC。 K33 Research于2024年7月2日发布的一份报告，就是这一猜测的来源。

The launch of the Spot Ether ETF has been highly anticipated, and its arrival could significantly impact the price dynamics of ETH. According to a report by K33 Research on July 2, there is speculation that ETH could outperform BTC following the launch of the ETF.

以太币现货 ETF 的推出备受期待，它的到来可能会对 ETH 的价格动态产生重大影响。根据 K33 Research 7 月 2 日的报告，有人猜测 ETF 推出后，ETH 的表现可能会优于 BTC。

However, the report also suggests that Ether might stumble immediately after its ETF launches. Highlighting two factors in their analysis, analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimerman note that the Spot Ether ETF could be the golden egg for ETH’s price. They suggest that the chances of outperformance arise from the ongoing selling pressure due to Mt. Gox as the defunct platform returns $8.5 billion to creditors in repayments.

然而，该报告还表明，以太坊 ETF 推出后可能会立即下跌。分析师 Vetle Lunde 和 David Zimerman 在分析中强调了两个因素，指出现货 ETH ETF 可能是 ETH 价格的金蛋。他们认为，由于 Mt. Gox 已不复存在的平台向债权人返还 85 亿美元的还款，导致持续的抛售压力，因此表现优异的可能性较大。

“ETFs are a solid catalyst that will strengthen ETH over time. The patient trader can view the ETH/BTC pair as a bargain,” Lunde wrote in the report.

“ETF 是一种坚实的催化剂，随着时间的推移，ETH 将会走强。耐心的交易者可以将 ETH/BTC 货币对视为便宜货，”伦德在报告中写道。

The analysts maintain a bullish outlook for ETH, expecting an inflow of 0.75–1% of ETH's circulating supply, which could occur within the first five months of the ETF's launch. Notably, they also acknowledge that the market seems to disagree with this speculation.

分析师维持 ETH 的看涨前景，预计 ETH 流通供应量的 0.75-1% 会流入，这可能会在 ETF 推出的前五个月内发生。值得注意的是，他们还承认市场似乎不同意这种猜测。

Given that ETH is valued at $3,343.74 against BTC at $60,484.14, it is convenient to assume that the market thinks otherwise. The difference lies not just in token value but also in market cap, with Bitcoin maintaining a dominance of over 50% while Ethereum stands at less than 20%.

鉴于 ETH 的价值为 3,343.74 美元，而 BTC 的价值为 60,484.14 美元，我们很容易假设市场并不这么认为。差异不仅在于代币价值，还在于市值，比特币保持着 50% 以上的主导地位，而以太坊则不到 20%。

A jump closer to BTC would require a surge of several thousand percentages at best. At its highest projection, ETH is expected to close the year at around $4,000. The approval of the ETF could help fuel this growth and possibly cross the $5,000 mark, but anything beyond that remains a distant dream.

要想接近比特币，充其量也需要上涨数千个百分点。按照最高预测，ETH 预计今年收于 4,000 美元左右。 ETF 的批准可能有助于推动这一增长，并可能突破 5,000 美元大关，但超出这一目标仍然是一个遥远的梦想。

The performance of the ETF itself is promising, especially considering the SEC's cautious approach, which instills a sense of confidence among investors and traders, giving hope to other crypto ETFs.

ETF 本身的表现是有希望的，特别是考虑到 SEC 的谨慎态度，这给投资者和交易者灌输了信心，给其他加密 ETF 带来了希望。

In the short term, predictions for ETH are bullish, with the token expected to reach as high as $3,479.18 within the next 30 days. This marks a 3.10% increase amidst a price volatility of 3.75% and a 14-day RSI of 45.10. Compared to BTC, which is expected to cross the $80,000 milestone quite easily, ETH's performance is slower.

短期内，对 ETH 的预测是看涨的，预计该代币将在未来 30 天内最高达到 3,479.18 美元。这标志着在价格波动 3.75% 和 14 天 RSI 为 45.10 的情况下上涨 3.10%。与预计轻松突破 80,000 美元里程碑的 BTC 相比，ETH 的表现要慢一些。

According to K33 Research, there is a possibility that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin, although it might take a very long time to do so. Among the key altcoins, ETH has been a top contender to outpace BTC.

据 K33 Research 称，以太坊的表现有可能超越比特币，尽管这可能需要很长时间。在主要的山寨币中，ETH 一直是超越 BTC 的有力竞争者。