Solana (SOL) 或 XRP — 哪一个将首先获得 ETF 批准？

鉴于社区的大力支持，业界正在争论 Solana 或 XRP 是否会首先获得 ETF 批准。尽管 XRP 正在努力应对 SEC 的法律游戏，但 Solana ETF 似乎是 SEC 批准的最安全选择。

Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) are among the candidates for the next crypto ETF approval in the US, following the recent approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, BlackRock has expressed skepticism, while other industry players remain optimistic.

继比特币和以太坊 ETF 最近获得批准后，Solana (SOL) 和 Ripple (XRP) 成为美国下一个加密 ETF 批准的候选者之一。然而，贝莱德对此表示怀疑，而其他行业参与者则保持乐观。

BlackRock Rebuffs SOL and XRP ETF Approval

贝莱德拒绝批准 SOL 和 XRP ETF

On the opening day of the Bitcoin Conference 2024, BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, Robert Mitchnick, downplayed the approval of Solana, Ripple, and other altcoins. He cited a lack of maturity and liquidity as the main reason, along with regulatory concerns and the SEC’s hesitance to approve more crypto ETFs. Mitchnick highlighted that while Bitcoin and Ethereum lead the market with substantial market caps, other altcoins don’t meet the required thresholds for liquidity and maturity to be considered for ETFs.

在 2024 年比特币大会开幕当天，贝莱德数字资产主管 Robert Mitchnick 淡化了对 Solana、Ripple 和其他山寨币的批准。他指出，主要原因是缺乏成熟度和流动性，以及监管方面的担忧和 SEC 对批准更多加密 ETF 的犹豫。米奇尼克强调，虽然比特币和以太坊以巨大的市值引领市场，但其他山寨币不符合 ETF 考虑的流动性和期限要求的门槛。

“The market caps of SOL, XRP, and other altcoins are not large enough to support an ETF. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the only two cryptocurrencies that have the necessary market caps and liquidity.” – Robert Mitchnick, Head of Digital Assets, BlackRock

“SOL、XRP 和其他山寨币的市值不足以支持 ETF。比特币和以太坊是仅有的两种具有必要市值和流动性的加密货币。” – Robert Mitchnick，贝莱德数字资产主管

Current State of Crypto ETFs

加密货币 ETF 的现状

Despite the approval of spot Ether ETFs, their performance has been lackluster, with products like Grayscale Grayscale Lending & Borrowing ETF Trust (NYSE:GSLC) experiencing consecutive outflows. Mitchnick also mentioned that the SEC was uncomfortable with spot Ether ETFs offering staking facilities, reflecting broader regulatory uncertainties.

尽管现货以太坊ETF获得批准，但其表现却一直乏善可陈，灰度借贷ETF信托（NYSE：GSLC）等产品连续出现资金流出。米奇尼克还提到，美国证券交易委员会对以太币现货 ETF 提供质押设施感到不安，这反映出更广泛的监管不确定性。

On the other hand, Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, had a contrasting view. He highlighted that Europe already has successful ETPs for altcoins like Solana, XRP, and Cardano. Geraci believes that similar products could be introduced in the US with appropriate regulatory adjustments, expressing optimism for future developments in the US crypto ETF market.

另一方面，The ETF Store 总裁 Nate Geraci 则持有相反的观点。他强调，欧洲已经拥有 Solana、XRP 和 Cardano 等山寨币的成功 ETP。 Geraci认为，通过适当的监管调整，类似的产品可以在美国推出，并对美国加密ETF市场的未来发展表示乐观。

Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, explained a valid point that the creation of an ETF requires strong support from regulators, issuers, and market players like exchanges and custodians. Currently, XRP lacks the necessary client demand and internal conviction, making regulatory approval unlikely. In contrast, Solana shows potential due to its decentralization and security, which align with the criteria needed for an ETF. The analyst is optimistic that, over time, regulators will approve these products.

VanEck数字资产研究主管Matthew Sigel解释了一个有道理的观点，即ETF的创建需要监管机构、发行机构以及交易所和托管机构等市场参与者的大力支持。目前，XRP 缺乏必要的客户需求和内部信念，导致监管机构批准的可能性不大。相比之下，Solana 由于其去中心化和安全性而显示出潜力，这符合 ETF 所需的标准。分析师乐观地认为，随着时间的推移，监管机构将批准这些产品。

“Over the next six to twelve months, I expect to see a decision on whether to approve an ETF for a decentralized digital asset like Solana. The approval of a SOL ETF would open the door for other decentralized digital assets to be included in ETFs.” – Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research, VanEck

“在接下来的六到十二个月内，我预计将看到是否批准 Solana 等去中心化数字资产 ETF 的决定。 SOL ETF 的批准将为其他去中心化数字资产纳入 ETF 打开大门。” – Matthew Sigel，VanEck 数字资产研究主管

BlackRock’s Q2 Performance

贝莱德第二季度业绩

Amid these discussions, Blackrock reported strong Q2 earnings, with assets under management (AUM) reaching $10.6 trillion. However, despite their strong financial position, Mitchnick stressed that BlackRock does not see a near-term future for altcoin ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum due to current market conditions and regulatory hurdles.

在这些讨论中，贝莱德公布了强劲的第二季度收益，管理资产 (AUM) 达到 10.6 万亿美元。然而，尽管财务状况强劲，但米奇尼克强调，由于当前的市场状况和监管障碍，贝莱德并不认为比特币和以太坊之外的山寨币 ETF 的短期前景如何。

What Next?

接下来是什么？

The SEC’s recent approval of Ethereum ETFs has created new cryptocurrency opportunities. While XRP faces several hurdles before its ETF approval, Solana meets all the necessary conditions. Even GSR wrote last month that the results suggested Solana is next, should the additional spot digital asset ETFs be permitted in the US.

美国证券交易委员会最近批准的以太坊 ETF 创造了新的加密货币机会。尽管 XRP 在获得 ETF 批准之前面临一些障碍，但 Solana 满足了所有必要条件。甚至 GSR 上个月也写道，结果表明，如果美国允许额外的现货数字资产 ETF，Solana 就是下一个。

Investors are eagerly awaiting regulatory decisions, hoping Solana and XRP will be the next crypto to benefit from an ETF. With big bulls like VanEck and 21Shares openly showing interest in SOL and XRP, the market is rooting for a year-end approval. Agree?

投资者正在热切等待监管决定，希望 Solana 和 XRP 将成为下一个从 ETF 中受益的加密货币。随着 VanEck 和 21Shares 等大牛公开表现出对 SOL 和 XRP 的兴趣，市场正在为年底的批准而欢呼。同意？