Solana (SOL) 价格预测：SOL 今年会反弹吗？

Solana (SOL) 是业内第五大加密货币，交易价格为 145 美元，低于今年迄今为止的高点 210 美元。其估值已从年初至今的 860 亿美元高位回落至 680 亿美元。

Solana (SOL) price has remained in a deep bear market, dropping by more than 30% from its highest level in 2024. As a result, the fifth-biggest cryptocurrency in the world was trading at $145 on Monday, September 26, down from a year-to-date (YTD) high of $210. Its market capitalization has retreated from a YTD high of $86 billion to $68 billion.

Solana (SOL) 价格仍处于深度熊市，较 2024 年最高水平下跌超过 30%。因此，全球第五大加密货币在 9 月 26 日星期一的交易价格为 145 美元，低于 2024 年的最高水平。今年迄今 (YTD) 高点为 210 美元。其市值已从年初至今的 860 亿美元高位回落至 680 亿美元。

Solana is in a bear market because it is correlated with Bitcoin (BTC) and other altcoins. In 2024, Bitcoin has dropped by almost 20% from its YTD high. At the same time, other coins like Ethereum (ETH), Avalanche (AVAX), and Cardano (ADA) have dropped by more than 30%.

Solana 正处于熊市，因为它与比特币 (BTC) 和其他山寨币相关。 2024 年，比特币较年初至今高点下跌了近 20%。与此同时，以太坊 (ETH)、Avalanche (AVAX) 和 Cardano (ADA) 等其他代币的跌幅超过 30%。

Typically, altcoins like Solana tend to make bigger moves than Bitcoin. They perform better when BTC is rising and significantly underperform when it is in a downtrend. For example, between January 1 and March 24, BTC rose by 70%. During the same period, SOL and ETH rose by more than 80%.

通常，像 Solana 这样的山寨币往往会比比特币有更大的波动。当比特币上涨时，它们的表现更好，而当比特币处于下跌趋势时，它们的表现则明显不佳。例如，1月1日至3月24日期间，BTC上涨了70%。同期，SOL和ETH涨幅超过80%。

Solana has also retreated because it is facing substantial competition from Tron (TRX), which recently launched SunPump, a meme coin generator. As a result, the DEX volume on Solana in the past seven days has fallen by almost 9% while Tron’s has risen by more than 210% to $1.70 billion.

Solana 之所以退出，是因为它面临着 Tron (TRX) 的激烈竞争，Tron 最近推出了 Meme 硬币生成器 SunPump。因此，Solana 上的 DEX 交易量在过去 7 天下降了近 9%，而 Tron 的 DEX 交易量则上涨了 210% 以上，达到 17 亿美元。

Most of Solana’s meme coins have also retreated. For example, Dogwifhat has dropped by almost 70% from its highest level this year, while Book of Meme (BOME) has fallen by 80% from its all-time high.

Solana 的大部分 meme 币也出现了回落。例如，Dogwifhat 较今年最高水平下跌了近 70%，而 Book of Meme (BOME) 较历史最高水平下跌了 80%。

Tron has also overtaken Solana in DeFi total value locked, the number of active addresses, and stablecoins. Tron has over $8.3 billion in assets, 2.47 million in addresses, and almost $60 billion in stablecoins. In comparison, Solana has $5.16 billion, 1.74 million, and $3.9 billion, respectively.

Tron 在 DeFi 总锁定价值、活跃地址数量和稳定币方面也超过了 Solana。 Tron 拥有超过 83 亿美元的资产、247 万个地址以及近 600 亿美元的稳定币。相比之下，Solana 的市值分别为 51.6 亿美元、174 万美元和 39 亿美元。

Solana’s futures open interest has fallen

Solana 的期货未平仓合约下降

Meanwhile, Solana’s open interest in the futures market has been in a downtrend. Most recently, the interest peaked at $3 billion in July and has pulled back to $2 billion, signaling waning demand.

与此同时，Solana 在期货市场的未平仓合约一直处于下降趋势。最近，利息在 7 月份达到峰值 30 亿美元，现已回落至 20 亿美元，表明需求减弱。

Solana has also dropped because of the ongoing performance of spot Ethereum ETFs. The latest data shows that they have not become popular. They have had cumulative outflows of $481 million and have shed assets in five of the last six weeks.

由于现货以太坊 ETF 的持续表现，Solana 也出现下跌。最新数据显示，它们还没有流行起来。他们的累计资金流出达 4.81 亿美元，并在过去六周中有五周进行了资产剥离。

Therefore, if the trend continues, there is a likelihood that companies like Blackrock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton will not apply for a spot Solana ETF. The SEC has also been hesitant to approve these funds. Earlier this month, the agency turned down Cboe Global Markets’ 19b-4 filing for a Solana fund.

因此，如果这种趋势持续下去，贝莱德、富达和富兰克林邓普顿等公司可能不会申请现货 Solana ETF。美国证券交易委员会对于批准这些资金也一直犹豫不决。本月早些时候，该机构拒绝了 Cboe Global Markets 向 Solana 基金提交的 19b-4 申请。

Technically, as shown above, the pullback is likely part of the formation of a bullish flag pattern. It is also part of the hand section of the cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart. If these patterns work out well, Solana will likely bounce back later this year.

从技术上讲，如上所示，回调可能是看涨旗形形成的一部分。它也是周线图上杯柄形态手部部分的一部分。如果这些模式运行良好，Solana 可能会在今年晚些时候反弹。