迹象已经存在：山寨币季节可能在 2024 年到来

经济学家 Henrik Zeberg 预测山寨币将出现突破，其中 Solana (SOL) 是领先者，他的观点与正在出现的模式一致

As 2024 draws to a close, many signs point towards the arrival of the next altcoin season. While Bitcoin has certainly had its moments in the sun this year, reaching new all-time highs after Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November, it seems that investors are now shifting their focus towards alternative cryptocurrencies.

随着 2024 年接近尾声，许多迹象都表明下一个山寨币季节即将到来。尽管比特币今年确实有过辉煌的时刻，在唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 于 11 月赢得美国总统大选后创下了历史新高，但投资者现在似乎正在将注意力转向替代加密货币。

One of the key indicators of an altcoin season is a decrease in Bitcoin dominance. This metric measures the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market that is held by Bitcoin. When Bitcoin's dominance decreases, it often signals the start of an altcoin rally.

山寨币季节的关键指标之一是比特币主导地位的下降。该指标衡量比特币占加密货币市场总量的百分比。当比特币的主导地位下降时，通常标志着山寨币反弹的开始。

A closer look at the Bitcoin dominance chart reveals an interesting pattern, known as a rising wedge. This pattern forms when the price makes higher and lower highs within a narrow range. Rising wedges are generally considered bearish signals, often predicting a price drop.

仔细观察比特币的主导地位图表，就会发现一种有趣的模式，称为上升楔形。当价格在窄幅区间内不断创出更高或更低的高点时，就会形成这种形态。上升楔形通常被认为是看跌信号，通常预示着价格下跌。

However, in the context of Bitcoin dominance, a rising wedge breakout could signal a significant shift in the market. The breakout from this wedge began in mid-November, suggesting that Bitcoin may lose market share to altcoins in the coming weeks.

然而，在比特币占据主导地位的背景下，上升楔形突破可能预示着市场的重大转变。该楔形的突破始于 11 月中旬，这表明比特币可能在未来几周内将市场份额输给山寨币。

To better understand what might happen next during this altcoin season, let's compare it to two past alt-seasons that occurred in 2017-2018 and 2021.

为了更好地了解这个山寨币季节接下来可能会发生什么，让我们将其与 2017-2018 年和 2021 年发生的两个山寨币季节进行比较。

Past Altcoin Seasons: A Closer Examination

过去的山寨币季节：仔细检查

In late 2017, the cryptocurrency market experienced a boom in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). Many new projects launched their own tokens to raise funds, and investors flocked to these new opportunities as a way to multiply their investments quickly.

2017 年底，加密货币市场经历了首次代币发行（ICO）的繁荣。许多新项目推出了自己的代币来筹集资金，投资者纷纷涌向这些新机会，以此快速增加投资。

As a result of this ICO mania, Bitcoin's dominance dropped from 86.3% at the end of 2017 to just 38.69% in early 2-18. During this period, the total market value of altcoins surged from $30 billion to over $600 billion.

由于 ICO 热潮，比特币的主导地位从 2017 年底的 86.3% 下降到 2-18 年初的 38.69%。在此期间，山寨币的总市值从 300 亿美元飙升至超过 6000 亿美元。

Some of the top altcoin performers of 2017 include Ethereum, which grew from $8 in January 2017 to over $1,400 by January 2018. Another standout performer was Ripple, which experienced a substantial growth from $0.006 to over $3. Litecoin also had a remarkable performance, climbing from $4 to nearly $350 by the end of 2017.

2017 年表现最好的一些山寨币包括以太坊，它的价格从 2017 年 1 月的 8 美元增长到 2018 年 1 月的 1,400 美元以上。另一个表现出色的是 Ripple，它的价格从 0.006 美元大幅增长到 3 美元以上。莱特币也表现出色，到 2017 年底从 4 美元攀升至近 350 美元。

However, this excitement also led to many projects launching without real products or use cases. By early 2018, regulatory pressure and market saturation triggered a major correction, bringing the altcoin season to an abrupt end.

然而，这种兴奋也导致许多项目在没有实际产品或用例的情况下启动。到 2018 年初，监管压力和市场饱和引发了重大调整，导致山寨币季节戛然而止。

Fast forward to 2021, and alt-season returned, but this time the focus had shifted. Instead of ICOs, decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) drove the market to new heights.

快进到 2021 年，另类季节又回来了，但这一次焦点发生了转移。去中心化金融（DeFi）平台和不可替代代币（NFT）取代了 ICO，将市场推向了新的高度。

Altcoins like Solana rose from $1.60 in early 2021 to over $250 by November. Other altcoins that gained popularity include Avalanche and Polygon, as investors sought scalable alternatives to Ethereum, which was struggling to keep up with the demand.

Solana 等山寨币的价格从 2021 年初的 1.60 美元上涨到 11 月的 250 美元以上。其他受欢迎的山寨币包括 Avalanche 和 Polygon，因为投资者寻求以太坊的可扩展替代品，而以太坊却难以满足需求。

This time around, projects with real-world applications saw the most growth, as the market matured and investors became more discerning. Altcoins like Filecoin, which provided decentralized storage solutions, and Chainlink, known for its oracle services, also performed well.

这一次，随着市场的成熟和投资者变得更加挑剔，具有实际应用的项目增长最快。像提供去中心化存储解决方案的 Filecoin 和以其预言机服务而闻名的 Chainlink 等山寨币也表现良好。

Signs of a New Altcoin Season in 2024

2024 年新山寨币季节的迹象

Now, let's return to the present day and examine the signs that suggest the arrival of a new altcoin season in November 2024.

现在，让我们回到现在，看看 2024 年 11 月新的山寨币季节到来的迹象。

As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin surged past the $100k mark after Donald Trump won the US presidential election. However, its dominance started to fall again, dropping from 55% at the beginning of the month to around 50% by mid-November. This change suggests that investors may be moving funds from Bitcoin into altcoins.

如前所述，唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国总统大选后，比特币飙升至 10 万美元大关。然而，其主导地位再次开始下降，从月初的55%下降到11月中旬的50%左右。这一变化表明投资者可能正在将资金从比特币转移到山寨币。

Major cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance and Coinbase are also reporting increased trading volume for altcoins. Solana, in particular, reached new highs this week, while other altcoins are also seeing price gains. This movement signals that capital is rotating into alternative projects, which could be a key sign of an upcoming alt-season.

Binance 和 Coinbase 等主要加密货币交易所也报告山寨币交易量增加。尤其是 Solana，本周创下了新高，而其他山寨币的价格也出现了上涨。这一趋势表明资本正在转向替代项目，这可能是即将到来的替代季节的一个关键迹象。

If you're wondering why else people believe that alt-season is just around the corner, here are a few more reasons:

如果您想知道为什么其他人相信替代季节即将来临，这里还有一些原因：

The 1400-day cycle theory points to a pattern where Bitcoin's dominance peaks approximately every four years before declining. This cycle appears to be repeating, indicating that the market may enter a new phase where altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin.

1400 天周期理论指出了一种模式，即比特币的主导地位大约每四年达到顶峰，然后就会下降。这个周期似乎正在重复，表明市场可能进入一个新阶段，山寨币开始跑赢比特币。

The current chart mirrors the pattern seen in 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply and altcoins rallied. If this pattern holds, the next few months could see explosive growth for altcoins.

当前的图表反映了 2017 年和 2021 年的模式，其中比特币的主导地位急剧下降，山寨币则上涨。如果这种模式成立，未来几个月山寨币可能会出现爆炸性增长。

With these signs pointing towards an impending altcoin season, it's important to remember that

这些迹象表明山寨币季节即将到来，重要的是要记住这一点