柴犬 (SHIB) 能达到 1 美元吗？这就是为什么它在技术上可行但不太可能

Shiba Inu (SHIB -3.02%) 在 2021 年实现了金融市场历史上最大的涨幅之一，该代币当年飙升了 45,278,000%。

Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) delivered one of the largest gains in financial market history in 2021, when the token soared 45,278,000% for the year. In dollar terms, a perfectly timed investment of just $3 would have been enough to make you a millionaire.

Shiba Inu（加密货币：SHIB）在 2021 年实现了金融市场历史上最大的涨幅之一，该代币当年飙升了 45,278,000%。以美元计算，只要在恰当的时机进行 3 美元的投资就足以让您成为百万富翁。

But the speculation fever that drove that incredible gain quickly evaporated during the cryptocurrency winter in 2022, sending Shiba Inu plunging 90% from its all-time high. Sentiment across the industry has finally started to recover, and Shiba Inu is sitting on a year-to-date gain of 67% in 2024.

但在 2022 年的加密货币寒冬期间，推动这一令人难以置信的涨幅的投机热潮很快就消失了，导致柴犬价格从历史最高点暴跌 90%。整个行业的情绪终于开始复苏，2024 年 Shiba Inu 的年初至今涨幅将达到 67%。

Investors might be wondering if this is the start of another historic bull run. Could Shiba Inu soar all the way to $1 from its current price of $0.000017? The answer is yes, but there is a high chance investors won't make any money if it happens. Here's why.

投资者可能想知道这是否是另一场历史性牛市的开始。柴犬能否从目前 0.000017 美元的价格一路飙升至 1 美元？答案是肯定的，但如果发生这种情况，投资者很可能赚不到钱。原因如下。

Shiba Inu is facing a key fundamental hurdle

柴犬面临着一个关键的根本障碍

Adoption is the key for any currency to sustain its value. If businesses won't accept it as payment for goods and services, then consumers have no reason to hold it, and that's the challenge most cryptocurrencies face at the moment -- even industry leaders like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

采用是任何货币维持其价值的关键。如果企业不接受它作为商品和服务的支付方式，那么消费者就没有理由持有它，这就是大多数加密货币目前面临的挑战 - 即使是像比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）这样的行业领导者。

According to Cryptwerk, just 957 merchants in the entire world accept Shiba Inu as payment, and many of them are relatively obscure. In other words, you can't count on spending your tokens right now at popular retailers like Target (NYSE: TGT) or even Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). Volatility is probably a big reason for that, because any currency that can soar in value by millions of percentage points, only to collapse a short time later, would make cash flow management practically impossible.

据 Cryptwerk 称，全球只有 957 家商户接受柴犬作为付款方式，其中许多商户都比较不起眼。换句话说，您现在不能指望在塔吉特 (NYSE: TGT) 甚至亚马逊 (NASDAQ: AMZN) 等流行零售商处使用您的代币。波动性可能是造成这种情况的一个重要原因，因为任何货币如果其价值可以飙升数百万个百分点，但很快就会崩溃，那么现金流管理实际上是不可能的。

Developers are trying to create new use-cases for Shiba Inu, but none of them appear to be moving the needle. They recently launched Shibarium, which is a Layer-2 blockchain solution designed to bypass some of the costs and inefficiencies of the legacy Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) network upon which Shiba Inu is built. This improvement makes Shiba Inu tokens more attractive as a payment mechanism, but it hasn't driven a measurable uptick in the number of merchants willing to use it.

开发人员正在尝试为柴犬创建新的用例，但似乎都没有取得进展。他们最近推出了 Shibarium，这是一个第 2 层区块链解决方案，旨在绕过 Shiba Inu 所基于的传统以太坊（加密货币：ETH）网络的一些成本和低效率。这一改进使柴犬代币作为一种支付机制更具吸引力，但并没有带动愿意使用它的商家数量明显增加。

Supply is another problem standing in the way of further gains

供应是阻碍进一步收益的另一个问题

A lack of adoption isn't the only thing standing in the way of another historic gain. There are 589.26 trillion Shiba Inu tokens in circulation, and at the current price of $0.000017 per token, Shiba Inu has a market capitalization of $10.1 billion. Simple math suggests if the price per token rose to $1, Shiba Inu's market cap would be a mind-boggling $589.26 trillion.

缺乏采用并不是阻碍另一项历史性成果的唯一因素。目前有 589.26 万亿个 Shiba Inu 代币在流通，以目前每个代币 0.000017 美元的价格计算，Shiba Inu 的市值为 101 亿美元。简单的计算表明，如果每个代币的价格升至 1 美元，柴犬的市值将达到令人难以置信的 589.26 万亿美元。

According to Credit Suisse, the total amount of wealth held by every person, business, and government in the world is around $432 trillion, so it's impossible for Shiba Inu to achieve a price of $1 in its current state. The only feasible way to get there is by shrinking the supply of tokens.

据瑞士信贷统计，全球每个人、企业和政府持有的财富总额约为432万亿美元，因此柴犬在目前状态下不可能达到1美元的价格。实现这一目标的唯一可行方法是减少代币的供应。

Shiba Inu investors are already working on that by "burning" tokens, which means to remove them from circulation forever. The easiest way to do that is by sending them to a dead wallet where they can't be retrieved, but a couple of years ago, enthusiasts created several other ways to participate.

柴犬投资者已经在通过“销毁”代币来解决这个问题，这意味着将它们永远从流通中移除。最简单的方法是将它们发送到一个无法找回的死钱包，但几年前，爱好者们创造了几种其他参与方式。

Investors could buy coffee from the Shiba Coffee Company, which used some of the profits to burn tokens, or they could use the Shiba Search internet search engine, which used some of its advertising revenue for the cause. Unfortunately, most engaging options like those are no longer available, possibly because the community realized how significant the task really is.

投资者可以从 Shiba Coffee Company 购买咖啡，该公司使用部分利润来燃烧代币，或者他们可以使用 Shiba Search 互联网搜索引擎，该公司使用其部分广告收入来燃烧代币。不幸的是，像这样最吸引人的选项不再可用，可能是因为社区意识到这项任务的真正重要性。

For example, around 99.99998% of all existing tokens would have to be burned to bring supply down to 10.1 billion, which is the level that would warrant a price of $1 per token based on Shiba Inu's current market cap.

例如，大约 99.99998% 的现有代币必须被销毁才能将供应量降至 101 亿个，根据 Shiba Inu 目前的市值，这个水平可以保证每个代币的价格为 1 美元。

Image source: Getty Images.

图片来源：盖蒂图片社。

That could take thousands of years, and it won't yield a return

这可能需要数千年的时间，而且不会产生回报

Over the past month, an average of 9.2 million Shiba Inu tokens were burned each day, which translates to around 3.4 billion each year. Considering 589.25 trillion tokens need to be burned to achieve a price of $1, it would take a whopping 173,308 years to reach that goal at the current pace.

过去一个月，平均每天有 920 万个柴犬代币被销毁，相当于每年约 34 亿个。考虑到需要燃烧 589.25 万亿代币才能达到 1 美元的价格，按照目前的速度实现这一目标需要长达 173,308 年的时间。

Plus, even when supply eventually shrinks to 10.1 billion tokens, a price of $1 per token will place Shiba Inu's market cap at $10.1 billion -- exactly where it is today. Simply put, reducing supply is a form of financial engineering. It doesn't create any real value; it

此外，即使供应量最终缩减至 101 亿个代币，每个代币 1 美元的价格也将使 Shiba Inu 的市值达到 101 亿美元——正是今天的水平。简而言之，减少供应是金融工程的一种形式。它不会创造任何实际价值；它