俄罗斯的地下战：乌克兰危机导致全球不稳定

对俄罗斯来说，乌克兰战争和乌克兰战争以外的非常规“灰色地带”战斗是相互关联的战略，用于破坏对手稳定、转移注意力和扩大常规战争。这些努力包括在欧洲的秘密行动、在非洲的雇佣军部署以及培养与穆斯林社区的联系以建立受俄罗斯影响的“俄罗斯协约”。例如，克里姆林宫认为，破坏非洲稳定将转移西方资源并缓解俄罗斯在乌克兰的行动。

Russia's Shadowy War: Destabilizing the World Amidst the Ukraine Conflict

俄罗斯的影子战争：乌克兰冲突破坏世界稳定

In the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia's covert operations and strategic initiatives beyond its borders have become an integral part of its broader geopolitical strategy. Moscow's relentless efforts to destabilize and disrupt its adversaries have unfolded in various arenas, complementing its conventional warfare in Ukraine.

在乌克兰冲突持续的背景下，俄罗斯在境外的秘密行动和战略举措已成为其更广泛地缘政治战略的组成部分。莫斯科在各个领域不断努力破坏对手的稳定和扰乱，与其在乌克兰的常规战争相辅相成。

The Kremlin's belief that sowing discord in Africa would alleviate pressure on its Ukrainian campaign underscores the interconnectedness of Russia's unconventional and conventional warfare tactics. By diverting Western attention and resources, Moscow aims to ease its military burden in Ukraine, demonstrating the strategic alignment between these seemingly disparate operations.

克里姆林宫相信在非洲挑拨离间可以减轻其乌克兰战役的压力，这突显了俄罗斯非常规和常规战争策略的相互关联性。通过转移西方的注意力和资源，莫斯科旨在减轻其在乌克兰的军事负担，展示这些看似不同的行动之间的战略一致性。

Britain's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has documented Russia's multifaceted unconventional warfare approach, encompassing covert operations in Europe, mercenary deployments in Africa, and cultivated ties with Muslim communities in Central Asia and Europe. These activities serve as a precursor to conventional military force, creating favorable conditions for its successful application.

英国皇家联合军种研究所（RUSI）记录了俄罗斯多方面的非常规战争方式，包括在欧洲的秘密行动、在非洲的雇佣军部署以及与中亚和欧洲的穆斯林社区培养联系。这些活动是常规军事力量的前身，为其成功运用创造了有利条件。

In Ukraine, Russia has sought to incite street protests as a pretext for military intervention, leveraging collaborators within the Ukrainian government and exploiting vulnerabilities within its political landscape. Similarly, in Moldova, Russia hoped to capitalize on protests to justify military intervention by pro-Russian leaders, but the perceived weakness of Russia's military performance in Ukraine has instilled caution among these leaders.

在乌克兰，俄罗斯试图煽动街头抗议，作为军事干预的借口，利用乌克兰政府内部的合作者并利用其政治格局中的脆弱性。同样，在摩尔多瓦，俄罗斯希望利用抗议活动来证明亲俄领导人的军事干预是合理的，但俄罗斯在乌克兰军事表现的弱点让这些领导人感到谨慎。

While Russia's unconventional warfare capabilities have been steadily rebuilt, its intelligence agencies have encountered setbacks. The 161st Intelligence Specialists Training Center, tasked with sabotage, subversion, and assassination, has experienced repeated operational failures, including a foiled coup attempt in Montenegro and futile efforts to foster violence in Ukraine and Moldova. These failures have been attributed to poor operational security, inaccurate assessments of Russian influence, and the expulsion of Russian diplomats and spies from European nations.

尽管俄罗斯的非常规战争能力稳步重建，但其情报机构却遭遇挫折。担负破坏、颠覆和暗杀任务的第 161 情报专家培训中心在行动上屡屡失败，包括黑山政变未遂以及在乌克兰和摩尔多瓦煽动暴力的徒劳努力。这些失败的原因是行动安全不佳、对俄罗斯影响力的评估不准确以及俄罗斯外交官和间谍被驱逐出欧洲国家。

Despite these setbacks, Russia remains undeterred in its pursuit of unconventional warfare capabilities. It has shifted its support network for European agents from Russian businessmen and expatriates to the Russian mafia and foreign students recruited at Russian universities.

尽管遭遇这些挫折，俄罗斯仍然毫不畏惧地追求非常规战争能力。它已将对欧洲特工的支持网络从俄罗斯商人和侨民转向俄罗斯黑手党和在俄罗斯大学招募的外国学生。

As the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, Russia's interest in fomenting crises beyond its borders has grown. The Balkans offer a fertile ground for such endeavors, and Russia is actively seeking to destabilize Ukraine's partners and exacerbate polarization in Europe.

随着乌克兰冲突愈演愈烈，俄罗斯煽动境外危机的兴趣日益浓厚。巴尔干地区为此类努力提供了肥沃的土壤，而俄罗斯正在积极寻求破坏乌克兰合作伙伴的稳定并加剧欧洲的两极分化。

In Africa and the Middle East, Russia's state-sponsored mercenaries are expanding their presence, providing military support to dictators and warlords. The once-infamous Wagner Group appears to have been subsumed, while Russia now offers a comprehensive "regime survival package" to support clients against threats from Islamic rebels and rival factions.

在非洲和中东，俄罗斯国家支持的雇佣军正在扩大其存在，为独裁者和军阀提供军事支持。曾经臭名昭著的瓦格纳集团似乎已被纳入其中，而俄罗斯现在提供全面的“政权生存一揽子计划”，以支持客户抵御伊斯兰叛乱分子和敌对派系的威胁。

Through the GRU, Russia seeks to establish an "Entente Roscolonial," a network of states aligned with Russia and beholden to its influence, displacing Western interests in Africa and the Middle East.

俄罗斯试图通过格鲁乌建立一个“俄罗斯殖民协约”，这是一个与俄罗斯结盟并受其影响的国家网络，取代西方在非洲和中东的利益。

Simultaneously, Ramzan Kadyrov, the influential leader of Chechnya, is striving to extend Moscow's influence among Muslim populations in Central Asia and the Balkans. Russian propaganda and covert networks seek to portray Kadyrov as a champion of Islam, contrasting him with Western adversaries intent on dismantling traditional values.

与此同时，车臣颇具影响力的领导人拉姆赞·卡德罗夫正在努力扩大莫斯科对中亚和巴尔干地区穆斯林人口的影响力。俄罗斯的宣传和秘密网络试图将卡德罗夫描绘成伊斯兰教的捍卫者，将他与意图瓦解传统价值观的西方对手进行对比。

However, Russia itself has become a target of Islamist terror groups such as ISIS-K, which claimed responsibility for a deadly attack in Moscow in 2023.

然而，俄罗斯本身已成为 ISIS-K 等伊斯兰恐怖组织的目标，该组织声称对 2023 年莫斯科发生的致命袭击负责。

According to RUSI experts, Western defense against Russian unconventional warfare lies not in countering Moscow's propaganda but in severing Russia's access to elites and its support apparatus for active measures. This can be achieved through the detection and apprehension of its agents and intelligence officers.

RUSI专家认为，西方对俄罗斯非常规战争的防御不在于对抗莫斯科的宣传，而在于切断俄罗斯与精英及其支持机构的联系以采取积极措施。这可以通过侦查和逮捕其特工和情报官员来实现。

Nonetheless, the West must avoid becoming overly repressive or paranoid. Countering Russian unconventional warfare requires careful, selective, and intelligence-driven targeting, based on a thorough understanding of Russian methods to prevent unnecessary alarm.

尽管如此，西方必须避免变得过度镇压或偏执。对抗俄罗斯的非常规战争需要在彻底了解俄罗斯防止不必要恐慌的方法的基础上，进行谨慎、有选择性和情报驱动的瞄准。

Michael Peck, a renowned defense writer, emphasizes that the West's response to Russian unconventional warfare must be measured and precise, prioritizing the exposure and disruption of Russia's covert networks while maintaining a balance between vigilance and excessive reaction.

著名防务作家迈克尔·佩克强调，西方对俄罗斯非常规战争的反应必须谨慎而精确，优先暴露和破坏俄罗斯的秘密网络，同时保持警惕和过度反应之间的平衡。