BlackRock Solana ETF 推出的障碍：深入分析

在 Thinking Crypto 播客最近的一集中，著名 ETF 分析师 Nate Geraci 否认了贝莱德很快推出 Solana ETF 的可能性。

Renowned ETF analyst Nate Geraci recently discussed the possibility of BlackRock launching a Solana ETF.

著名 ETF 分析师 Nate Geraci 最近讨论了贝莱德推出 Solana ETF 的可能性。

According to Geraci, for this to materialize, Solana would first need to establish CME-traded futures and a futures-based ETF.

Geraci 表示，要实现这一目标，Solana 首先需要建立在 CME 交易的期货和基于期货的 ETF。

Despite its growing popularity, various factors hinder Solana’s chances of being included in BlackRock’s ETF offerings.

尽管 Solana 越来越受欢迎，但多种因素阻碍了 Solana 被纳入贝莱德 ETF 产品的机会。

Regulatory Prerequisites for a Solana ETF

Solana ETF 的监管先决条件

CME-Traded Solana Futures

CME 交易的 Solana 期货

For a Solana ETF to become a reality, Geraci highlighted the necessity of CME-traded futures. The CME Group, known for its global derivatives marketplace, plays a crucial role in legitimizing digital currencies through regulated futures contracts.

为了让 Solana ETF 成为现实，Geraci 强调了在 CME 交易期货的必要性。芝商所以其全球衍生品市场而闻名，通过受监管的期货合约在数字货币合法化方面发挥着至关重要的作用。

The absence of CME-traded Solana futures poses a significant obstacle to the launch of a Solana ETF. Currently, only a handful of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin, have futures contracts available on the CME.

缺乏 CME 交易的 Solana 期货对 Solana ETF 的推出构成了重大障碍。目前，只有少数加密货币（包括比特币、以太坊和莱特币）在 CME 提供期货合约。

To increase the chances of a Solana ETF, the cryptocurrency would need to be included in the lineup of CME-traded futures.

为了增加 Solana ETF 的机会，加密货币需要包含在 CME 交易的期货阵容中。

However, considering the limited number of cryptocurrencies that have achieved this status, the competition is fierce, and Solana's entry into the CME futures market is not guaranteed.

然而，考虑到达到这一地位的加密货币数量有限，竞争激烈，Solana 进入 CME 期货市场并不能保证。

Futures-Based Solana ETFs

基于期货的 Solana ETF

If Solana were to be included in the CME-traded futures market, the next step would involve the creation of futures-based Solana ETFs.

如果 Solana 被纳入 CME 交易的期货市场，下一步将涉及创建基于期货的 Solana ETF。

These ETFs would track the performance of Solana futures contracts, providing a convenient and accessible way for investors to gain exposure to Solana’s price movements without directly purchasing the cryptocurrency.

这些 ETF 将跟踪 Solana 期货合约的表现，为投资者提供一种方便且容易获得的方式来了解 Solana 的价格变动，而无需直接购买加密货币。

After the launch of futures-based Solana ETFs, there would be a higher chance for the development of a spot Solana ETF, which would directly track the price of Solana.

在推出基于期货的 Solana ETF 后，开发直接跟踪 Solana 价格的现货 Solana ETF 的机会将会更大。

However, even with the availability of futures-based ETFs, the path to a spot Solana ETF is not straightforward and would depend on various factors, including regulatory approval.

然而，即使有基于期货的 ETF，通向现货 Solana ETF 的道路也并非一帆风顺，并且取决于各种因素，包括监管部门的批准。

BlackRock’s Stance on Altcoin ETFs

贝莱德对山寨币 ETF 的立场

Dismissal of Solana ETF Possibility

取消 Solana ETF 的可能性

BlackRock executives have consistently dismissed the possibility of launching altcoin ETFs, including Solana.

贝莱德高管一直否认推出包括 Solana 在内的山寨币 ETF 的可能性。

According to Samara Cohen, BlackRock’s Chief Information Officer, there are no immediate plans to launch a Solana-based ETF.

贝莱德首席信息官 Samara Cohen 表示，目前没有计划推出基于 Solana 的 ETF。

During an interview with ETF Trends, Cohen highlighted the firm's focus on offering ETFs for cryptocurrencies with the highest market capitalization and liquidity, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

在接受 ETF Trends 采访时，科恩强调了该公司专注于为具有最高市值和流动性的加密货币（例如比特币和以太坊）提供 ETF。

She further noted that while Solana is a well-known cryptocurrency, it is not among the top-tier crypto assets in terms of market capitalization.

她进一步指出，虽然 Solana 是一种众所周知的加密货币，但就市值而言，它并不是顶级加密资产之一。

Moreover, Cohen expressed her skepticism towards altcoin ETFs, stating that she has "not seen a huge demand for altcoin-specific ETFs."

此外，科恩对山寨币 ETF 表示怀疑，称她“没有看到对山寨币专用 ETF 的巨大需求”。

This viewpoint aligns with BlackRock's strategy of catering to the broader market demand rather than pursuing niche offerings.

这一观点与贝莱德迎合更广泛市场需求而不是追求利基产品的战略是一致的。

Market Demand for Altcoins

山寨币的市场需求

BlackRock's reluctance to launch a Solana ETF is also influenced by a perceived lack of demand for altcoin-focused ETFs.

贝莱德不愿推出 Solana ETF 的另一个原因是人们认为对以山寨币为重点的 ETF 需求不足。

Despite Solana's branding as an "Ethereum killer" and its popularity among cryptocurrency enthusiasts, BlackRock's assessment of the market suggests minimal interest in altcoin-based products.

尽管 Solana 被称为“以太坊杀手”，并且在加密货币爱好者中很受欢迎，但贝莱德对市场的评估表明，人们对基于山寨币的产品兴趣不大。

This aligns with the firm's preference for offering ETFs that cater to the mainstream audience rather than pursuing specialized or niche markets.

这符合该公司偏好提供迎合主流受众而非追求专业或利基市场的 ETF 的偏好。

By focusing on cryptocurrencies with broader appeal, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, BlackRock aims to maximize the potential for its ETF offerings.

通过专注于具有更广泛吸引力的加密货币（例如比特币和以太坊），贝莱德旨在最大限度地发挥其 ETF 产品的潜力。

Existing Solana ETF Filings

现有 Solana ETF 备案

21Shares and VanEck Filings

21Shares 和 VanEck 文件

Despite BlackRock's lack of involvement in Solana ETFs, other firms have filed applications with the SEC for Solana-related ETFs.

尽管贝莱德没有参与 Solana ETF，但其他公司已向 SEC 提交了 Solana 相关 ETF 的申请。

Among them are 21Shares and VanEck, both of which have submitted filings for Solana ETFs.

其中包括 21Shares 和 VanEck，两家公司都已提交 Solana ETF 的备案。

According to Geraci, the SEC is expected to make a decision on these filings by March of next year. If approved, the launch of a Solana ETF could occur by March 2025.

Geraci 表示，预计 SEC 将于明年 3 月对这些文件做出决定。如果获得批准，Solana ETF 可能会在 2025 年 3 月之前推出。

However, it's important to note that the SEC's approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs is often lengthy and subject to various considerations.

然而，值得注意的是，美国证券交易委员会对加密货币 ETF 的审批流程通常很漫长，并且需要考虑各种因素。

As such, the timeline for the approval and launch of a Solana ETF may vary and is ultimately dependent on the SEC's decision-making.

因此，Solana ETF 的批准和启动时间表可能会有所不同，并最终取决于 SEC 的决策。

BlackRock's Interest in Tokenization

贝莱德对代币化的兴趣

Current Ventures

当前的风险投资

While BlackRock may not be pursuing altcoin ETFs, the firm is actively exploring other ventures within the cryptocurrency space.

虽然贝莱德可能不会追求山寨币 ETF，但该公司正在积极探索加密货币领域的其他业务。

Among them is the launch of Ethereum ETFs, which are currently awaiting regulatory approval.

其中包括以太坊ETF的推出，目前正在等待监管部门的批准。

Additionally, BlackRock is interested in tokenization, a process that involves converting real-world assets into digital tokens for trading.

此外，贝莱德对代币化感兴趣，这是一个涉及将现实世界资产转换为数字代币进行交易的过程。

This venture aligns with BlackRock's broader goal of enhancing financial market efficiency through innovative technologies.

该合资企业符合贝莱德通过创新技术提高金融市场效率的更广泛目标。