著名分析师预测比特币到 2024 年底将升至 10 万美元

著名定量分析师 PlanB 预测，受减半后挖矿收入复苏的推动，比特币 (BTC) 的价格到 2024 年底将突破 10 万美元。该预测与 PlanB 的库存流量模型一致，该模型预计未来四年的价值为 500,000 美元。 PlanB 援引减半后的历史趋势，预计牛市将于 2025 年达到顶峰。

Renowned Analyst PlanB Predicts Inevitable Bitcoin Ascent to $100,000 by Late 2024, Supported by Historical Trends and Stock-to-Flow Model

著名分析师 PlanB 预测，在历史趋势和 Stock-to-Flow 模型的支持下，到 2024 年底，比特币将不可避免地上涨至 100,000 美元

Renowned quantitative analyst PlanB, boasting a substantial following on YouTube, has recently unveiled his bullish outlook for Bitcoin's (BTC) trajectory, foreseeing an inevitable surge surpassing the $100,000 mark before the end of 2024. This prediction hinges upon the historical impact of the upcoming April halving on Bitcoin miner revenues.

著名量化分析师 PlanB 在 YouTube 上拥有大量追随者，最近公布了他对比特币 (BTC) 轨迹的看涨前景，预计比特币在 2024 年底前将不可避免地飙升至突破 10 万美元大关。这一预测取决于即将到来的 4 月份的历史影响比特币矿工收入减半。

PlanB meticulously outlined his reasoning during a strategy session: "Predicting Bitcoin's progression in 2024 remains uncertain, but it is highly probable that we will reach $100,000. This stems from the need for miners' revenues to recover. With the halving approaching, their revenues will diminish by half, compelling them to recoup these losses. Historically, in each of the last three halvings, recovery occurred within a four to eight-month timeframe. This trend suggests that by 2024, the only viable path to revenue recovery is through a doubling of the price. Considering the current price hovering around $60,000, we anticipate surpassing $100,000 this year."

PlanB 在战略会议上详细概述了他的推理：“预测 2024 年比特币的进展仍然不确定，但很有可能达到 10 万美元。这源于矿工收入恢复的需要。随着减半的临近，他们的收入将从历史上看，在过去的三次减半中，每次减半都会在四到八个月的时间内恢复，这一趋势表明，到 2024 年，收入恢复的唯一可行途径是翻倍。考虑到目前价格徘徊在 60,000 美元左右，我们预计今年将超过 100,000 美元。”

Beyond this immediate prediction, PlanB emphasizes the enduring relevance of his stock-to-flow model, which correlates Bitcoin's scarcity with its market value. According to the model's projections, BTC is poised to reach $500,000 within the next four years. PlanB elaborated, "After updating the stock-to-flow model, we observed minimal adjustments to its parameters. Consequently, the target for 2024-2028 remains approximately $500,000."

除了这一直接预测之外，PlanB 还强调了他的库存流量模型的持久相关性，该模型将比特币的稀缺性与其市场价值联系起来。根据该模型的预测，BTC 有望在未来四年内达到 50 万美元。 PlanB 详细阐述道：“更新库存流量模型后，我们发现其参数调整幅度很小。因此，2024 年至 2028 年的目标仍然约为 50 万美元。”

PlanB further delved into the post-halving dynamics and expectations for the coming years: "Historically, the halving has consistently been followed by a reduction in error. We anticipate a similar trend, leading to an eventual convergence of the market price with the model's valuation. While the price will not immediately reach $500,000 in May, it will gradually align with the model's projections over the subsequent months. We anticipate the market peak occurring in 2025, based on historical patterns indicating that bull market peaks typically emerge approximately one and a half years post-halving. This timeframe aligns us with 2025. Of course, the overarching question remains whether the price will follow diminishing returns, potentially stabilizing around $200,000."

PlanB 进一步深入研究了减半后的动态和对未来几年的预期：“从历史上看，减半之后误差一直在减少。我们预计会出现类似的趋势，导致市场价格与模型估值最终趋同虽然价格不会在 5 月份立即达到 500,000 美元，但它将在接下来的几个月中逐渐与模型的预测保持一致，根据历史模式，牛市峰值通常会在大约一年半左右出现。这个时间框架与 2025 年一致。当然，首要问题仍然是价格是否会遵循收益递减，可能稳定在 200,000 美元左右。”

As of the time of publication, BTC's price stood at $63,892.33, reflecting a 6% surge over the preceding 24 hours. This recent rally underscores the enduring optimism surrounding Bitcoin's prospects, bolstered by PlanB's comprehensive analysis and the historical significance of the upcoming halving.

截至发稿时，BTC 价格为 63,892.33 美元，较前 24 小时上涨 6%。最近的反弹突显了围绕比特币前景的持久乐观情绪，PlanB 的全面分析和即将到来的减半的历史意义增强了这种乐观情绪。