量子计算泡沫：炒作与现实的警示故事

量子计算是最有趣的技术前沿之一，它吸引了科学家、投资者和技术爱好者的想象力。承诺？解决即使是最先进的超级计算机也需要数十亿甚至万亿年才能完成的计算问题。这一梦想推动了量子计算股票的飙升，IonQ（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IONQ）和 RigettiComputing（纳斯达克股票代码：RGTI）等公司在 2024 年末取得了显着的收益。但正如最近发生的事件所表明的那样，通往量子霸权的道路远非平坦。

Quantum computing, a frontier of immense technological significance, has captivated the minds of scientists, investors, and tech enthusiasts. The allure stems from the promise of solving computational problems that would leave even the most advanced supercomputers lagging billions or quadrillions of years behind. This dream fueled a surge in quantum computing stocks, with companies like IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) delivering remarkable gains in late 2024.

量子计算是一个具有巨大技术意义的前沿领域，吸引了科学家、投资者和技术爱好者的目光。这种吸引力源于解决计算问题的承诺，即使是最先进的超级计算机也会落后数十亿或数万亿年。这一梦想推动了量子计算股票的飙升，IonQ（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IONQ）和 RigettiComputing（纳斯达克股票代码：RGTI）等公司在 2024 年末实现了显着增长。

But recent events reveal that the path to quantum supremacy is anything but smooth.

但最近发生的事件表明，通往量子霸权的道路绝非一帆风顺。

Quantum computers operate on qubits, which differ fundamentally from the binary bits in traditional computing. While bits represent either a 0 or a 1, qubits can exist in a superposition, embodying both states simultaneously. This property allows quantum computers to potentially solve complex problems exponentially faster than their classical counterparts.

量子计算机在量子位上运行，这与传统计算中的二进制位有根本的不同。虽然位代表 0 或 1，但量子位可以叠加存在，同时体现两种状态。这一特性使得量子计算机能够比经典计算机更快地解决复杂问题。

The possibilities are vast. From optimizing supply chains to cracking unbreakable encryption, quantum computing could revolutionize industries. Progress is already underway: Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) recently announced that its Willow quantum chip solved an error correction problem in just five minutes—a task that would take a traditional supercomputer 10 septillion years to complete.

可能性是巨大的。从优化供应链到破解牢不可破的加密，量子计算可以彻底改变行业。进展已经在进行中：Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）最近宣布，其 Willow 量子芯片在短短五分钟内解决了纠错问题，而传统超级计算机需要 10 亿年才能完成这项任务。

The excitement surrounding these quantum breakthroughs sent stocks like IonQ and Rigetti soaring in late 2024. Investors flocked to the sector, hoping to get in early on what could be a transformative technology. Yet, as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revealed during a Q&A session at CES 2025, quantum computing’s true potential remains decades away.

围绕这些量子突破的兴奋使得 IonQ 和 Rigetti 等股票在 2024 年底飙升。投资者纷纷涌向该行业，希望尽早介入这项可能是变革性的技术。然而，正如 Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋在 CES 2025 的问答环节中透露的那样，量子计算的真正潜力仍然需要几十年的时间。

Huang remarked, “If you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that’d probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it’s probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it.”

黄说：“如果你说 15 年会出现非常有用的量子计算机，那可能还处于早期阶段。如果你说30，那可能已经晚了。但如果你选 20 个，我想我们很多人都会相信。”

This sobering assessment sent shockwaves through the market. By midday Wednesday, shares of IonQ and Rigetti had plummeted over 40%, erasing much of the gains from their previous rally.

这一发人深省的评估给市场带来了冲击。截至周三中午，IonQ 和 Rigetti 的股价已暴跌超过 40%，抹去了之前上涨的大部分涨幅。

Despite recent advances, quantum computing is still in its early stages of development. While Google’s Willow chip achieved an impressive benchmark, the computation it performed was a “toy problem” designed for testing. Quantum computers have yet to demonstrate their superiority over traditional computers in any real-world application.

尽管最近取得了一些进展，但量子计算仍处于发展的早期阶段。虽然谷歌的 Willow 芯片取得了令人印象深刻的基准，但它执行的计算只是一个为测试而设计的“玩具问题”。量子计算机尚未在任何实际应用中证明其相对于传统计算机的优越性。

This lack of practical use cases reinforces Huang’s point: while quantum computing has immense potential, realizing it will require years, if not decades, of further research and development.

实际用例的缺乏强化了黄的观点：虽然量子计算具有巨大的潜力，但实现它需要数年甚至数十年的进一步研究和开发。

As progress continues, investors should be mindful of the discrepancy between innovation and market expectations. Striking a balance between optimism and caution is crucial in navigating this emerging sector. For now, the quantum computing space presents an exciting—but speculative—long-term investment opportunity.

随着进展的继续，投资者应注意创新与市场预期之间的差异。在乐观和谨慎之间取得平衡对于驾驭这个新兴行业至关重要。目前，量子计算领域提供了一个令人兴奋但具有投机性的长期投资机会。