什么可能会将比特币（BTC）的价格提高 - 什么可能导致它下降

众所周知，做出预测是棘手的，当试图查明以其波动性而闻名的领先的加密货币时，从现在起五年来。

Making predictions is notoriously tricky, even more so when trying to pinpoint where a leading cryptocurrency known for its volatility will be five years from now. Instead of trying to guess what Bitcoin's (BTC -1.96%) value will be in the future, a better approach might be to look at what could push its price higher -- and what might cause it to fall.

众所周知，做出预测是棘手的，当试图查明以其波动性而闻名的领先的加密货币时，从现在起五年来。与其试图猜测将来的比特币（BTC -1.96％）的价值是什么，不如说是一种更好的方法是查看可能提高其价格的原因 - 什么可能导致其下降。

As the past few months have already proven, there are compelling reasons to think Bitcoin's value could rise or fall dramatically, thanks to increasing uncertainty in the U.S. economy. Here's how it might play out for Bitcoin over the next five years.

正如过去几个月已经证明的那样，由于美国经济不确定性的增加，有令人信服的理由认为比特币的价值可能会急剧上升或下降。这是未来五年可能会为比特币发挥作用的方式。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

Bitcoin's potential catalysts

比特币的潜在催化剂

One of the most significant catalysts for Bitcoin's value right now has come from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that debuted last year. These funds offer investors an easy way to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the sometimes complicated process of buying crypto themselves. For example, investors can buy the iShares Bitcoin ETF Trust (IBIT -2.29%), a fund that tracks the performance of Bitcoin. You can buy just one share, currently about $50, compared to Bitcoin's price of about $86,500. Sure, you can buy a small fraction of an actual Bitcoin, but that option may not be obvious to every investor.

现在，比特币价值最重要的催化剂之一来自去年首次亮相的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）。这些资金为投资者提供了一种容易获得比特币的简便方法，而没有有时购买加密货币本身的复杂过程。例如，投资者可以购买Ishares比特币ETF Trust（IBIT -2.29％），这是跟踪比特币绩效的基金。您只能购买一股，目前约50美元，而比特币的价格约为86,500美元。当然，您可以购买一小部分实际比特币，但是​​对于每个投资者来说，这种选择可能并不明显。

A little more than one year after launching, the iShares Bitcoin ETF Trust already has nearly $50 billion in assets, showing just how popular Bitcoin ETFs have become. If more investors follow suit to these ETFs, Bitcoin's value could rise further.

启动一年后，iShares比特币ETF信托基金已经拥有近500亿美元的资产，显示了比特币ETF的流行程度。如果越来越多的投资者效仿这些ETF，则比特币的价值可能会进一步上升。

And then there's the general openness and sometimes outright promotion of cryptocurrencies by the Trump administration. After establishing a crypto czar to see how the U.S. could move further into digital coins, President Donald Trump recently announced plans for a strategic crypto reserve, with Bitcoin as the largest holding.

然后，特朗普政府对加密货币进行了普遍的开放，有时甚至彻底促进了加密货币。唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统建立了加密沙皇（Crypto Czar）以了解美国如何进一步进入数字硬币之后，最近宣布了战略性加密保护区的计划，比特币是最大的持有。

With President Trump at the beginning of his four-year term, further actions taken by the administration that are seen as beneficial to Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general could drive its value higher.

随着特朗普总统在四年任期的开始，政府采取的进一步行动被认为对比特币或加密货币有益，可能会推动其价值更高。

Finally, there are increasing concerns that a period of high inflation could return, spurred by Trump's threats of tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Higher tariffs would likely result in higher consumer prices, and investors are moving some of their money into Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

最后，人们越来越担心，特朗普对美国贸易伙伴的关税威胁刺激了一段高通货膨胀时期。较高的关税可能会导致更高的消费价格，投资者将其一些资金转移到比特币中，以抵抗通货膨胀。

Because of Bitcoin's inherent scarcity, some investors view the crypto as having a long-term trajectory toward increasing value. As such, owning some Bitcoin could be a good way to fight inflation if prices rise and the value of the dollar decreases.

由于比特币固有的稀缺性，一些投资者认为加密货币具有长期轨迹，可以增加价值。因此，如果价格上涨和美元的价值下降，拥有一些比特币可能是打击通货膨胀的好方法。

There are some hurdles, too

也有一些障碍

It's probably not all sunshine and rainbows for Bitcoin over the next five years. For example, a recent CNBC survey of CFOs found that 75% predict a recession will begin in the second half of this year or early next year.

在接下来的五年中，这可能并不是比特币的阳光和彩虹。例如，最近对CNBC CFO的一项调查发现，有75％的人预测衰退将在今年下半年或明年年初开始。

The CFOs, as well as an increasing number of economists, are concerned that President Trump's tariffs could end up pushing the economy downtown. Recessions vary in length, with the average being about 10 months, but they can be longer, as with the Great Recession, which lasted 18 months.

首席财务官以及越来越多的经济学家都担心特朗普总统的关税最终可能会推动市区的经济。衰退的长度各不相同，平均值约为10个月，但与持续18个月的大萧条一样，它们可能更长。

Bitcoin's value isn't immune to feeling the impact if a recession rears its ugly head. The crypto's price has gone through dramatic price swings when investors have sensed uncertainty in the market or the economy.

如果经济衰退抬起丑陋的头部，比特币的价值不可能感受到影响。当投资者感觉到市场或经济的不确定性时，加密货币的价格经历了巨大的价格波动。

Even if a recession doesn't materialize, the general angst among some investors is already affecting Bitcoin's value, pushing it down about 12% over the past three months. Bitcoin could rally again, of course, but the takeaway here is that when companies, consumers, and investors are concerned about the economy, Bitcoin's value will likely be impacted as well.

即使经济衰退未实现，一些投资者的普遍焦虑已经在影响比特币的价值，在过去三个月中将其降低了约12％。当然，比特币可以再次集会，但是这里的收获是，当公司，消费者和投资者担心经济时，比特币的价值也可能会受到影响。

Finally, while the Trump administration has so far been light on regulation for cryptos, if this policy shifts or the next administration tightens regulations, Bitcoin's price could fall.

最后，尽管到目前为止，特朗普政府对加密货币的监管进行了启示，但如果该政策发生了变化或下一个政府加强法规，则比特币的价格可能会下降。

Where could Bitcoin be in 2030?

2030年比特币可以在哪里？

If we look at Bitcoin's price changes over the past 11 years, the two five-year time intervals have been very good for the crypto's value. Between late 2014 and 2019, Bitcoin surged more than 1,700%, and from 2020 to now, it has gained an additional 1,100%.

如果我们查看过去11年中比特币的价格变化，那么两个五年的时间间隔对加密货币的价值非常好。在2014年底至2019年之间，比特币飙升了1,700％以上，从2020年到现在，它增加了1,100％。

Now, that doesn't mean Bitcoin will see similar gains over the next five years. It could just as easily plummet based on some unforeseen problem.

现在，这并不意味着比特币将在未来五年内看到类似的收益。基于一些不可预见的问题，它可以很容易地暴跌。

But I mention these impressive gains because it shows that Bitcoin has proven to be a lucrative, albeit speculative, investment over time. With some significant tailwinds for the crypto in place, I wouldn't be surprised if it outpaces the skeptics' expectations between now and 2030.

但是我提到了这些令人印象深刻的收益，因为它表明比特币被证明是一项有利可图的，尽管随着时间的推移是投机性的。有了一些对加密货币的明显逆风，如果它超过了怀疑论者在现在到2030年之间的期望，我就不会感到惊讶。

Just keep in mind that owning any crypto is very speculative, and it's

请记住，拥有任何加密非常投机，这是