研究人员发现，内特·西尔弗 (Nate Silver) 吹捧的选举预测市场 Polymarket 受到虚假交易的困扰

根据该平台，唐纳德·特朗普目前有 67% 的获胜机会。但两家加密货币研究公司的分析师发现了 Polymarket 洗盘交易猖獗的证据

Analysis by two crypto research firms has revealed evidence of extensive wash trading on Polymarket, despite the platform’s odds being widely shared in both social and mainstream media. Notably, the platform currently indicates a 67% chance of victory for Donald Trump.

两家加密货币研究公司的分析揭示了 Polymarket 上存在大量清洗交易的证据，尽管该平台的赔率在社交和主流媒体上得到了广泛传播。值得注意的是，该平台目前显示唐纳德·特朗普获胜的几率为 67%。

In separate investigations conducted by blockchain firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital and shared exclusively with Fortune, analysts discovered that Polymarket activity exhibited signs of wash trading. This practice involves manipulating the market by buying and selling shares, often simultaneously and repeatedly, to create a false impression of volume and activity.

在区块链公司 Chaos Labs 和 Inca Digital 进行的单独调查中，分析师发现 Polymarket 活动表现出虚假交易的迹象，并独家与《财富》杂志分享。这种做法涉及通过经常同时重复地买卖股票来操纵市场，以造成成交量和活动的错误印象。

Chaos Labs found that wash trading constituted approximately one-third of trading volume on Polymarket’s presidential market. Meanwhile, Inca Digital’s report suggests that a “significant portion of the volume” on the market could be attributed to potential wash trading.

Chaos Labs 发现清洗交易约占 Polymarket 总统市场交易量的三分之一。与此同时，Inca Digital 的报告表明，市场上的“很大一部分交易量”可能归因于潜在的清洗交易。

Since a pivotal court decision in September legalized electoral betting, several prediction markets, including Kalshi and Robinhood, have been launched in the U.S. However, Polymarket remains the largest platform by far, thanks in part to its crypto-native design and offshore operations. It is worth noting that Polymarket remains inaccessible to U.S. investors.

自 9 月份法院做出的一项关键决定使选举博彩合法化以来，包括 Kalshi 和 Robinhood 在内的多个预测市场已在美国推出。然而，Polymarket 仍然是迄今为止最大的平台，部分归功于其加密原生设计和离岸业务。值得注意的是，美国投资者仍然无法进入 Polymarket。

With less than a week until the U.S. elections, the suspicious activity on Polymarket raises questions about the accuracy of the site, which its 26-year-old founder Shayne Copland has touted can “demystify the real world events that matter most to you.”

距离美国大选还有不到一周的时间，Polymarket 上的可疑活动引发了对该网站准确性的质疑，该网站 26 岁的创始人 Shayne Copland 宣称该网站可以“揭开对你来说最重要的现实世界事件的神秘面纱”。

A request for comment from Polymarket went unanswered.

Polymarket 的置评请求未得到答复。

The rise of prediction markets

预测市场的兴起

Founded in 2020 and backed by VCs including Founders Fund, Polymarket initially attempted to launch electoral betting in the U.S. However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission forced the platform offshore in early 2022.

Polymarket 成立于 2020 年，得到了 Founders Fund 等风险投资公司的支持，最初试图在美国推出选举博彩，但商品期货交易委员会于 2022 年初迫使该平台离开海外。

In contrast to competitors like PredictIt and Kalshi, which recently prevailed in a lawsuit against the CFTC to operate in the U.S., Polymarket operates its platform on the blockchain Ethereum. According to Coplan, the crypto element provides greater visibility into its trading activity. “The beauty of Polymarket is it’s all peer-to-peer and transparent,” he recently posted on X.

PredictIt 和 Kalshi 等竞争对手最近在针对美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 的诉讼中获胜，与它们不同的是，Polymarket 在区块链以太坊上运营其平台。根据科普兰的说法，加密元素提供了对其交易活动的更大可见性。 “Polymarket 的美妙之处在于它都是点对点且透明的，”他最近在 X 上发帖说。

Outlets from the Wall Street Journal to Fortune reported the betting odds on Polymarket in addition to more traditional metrics like polling data, highlighting the platform’s increased visibility during the recent presidential election. In a sign of growing credibility around prediction markets, polling star Nate Silver joined Polymarket as an advisor in July.

从《华尔街日报》到《财富》杂志，除了民意调查数据等更传统的指标外，还报道了 Polymarket 的投注赔率，突显该平台在最近的总统选举期间知名度的提高。民意调查明星 Nate Silver 于 7 月加入 Polymarket 担任顾问，这表明预测市场的可信度不断提高。

However, Polymarket’s crypto design and offshore operations have drawn scrutiny from other quarters. This includes recent reports claiming there is manipulative trading on the site—most notably by a single French trader who allegedly caused Trump’s odds to soar. Polymarket has insisted that the user has “extensive trading experience” and was not acting nefariously.

然而，Polymarket 的加密货币设计和离岸业务引起了其他方面的审查。其中包括最近声称该网站存在操纵交易的报道——最引人注目的是一名法国交易员，据称他导致特朗普的胜算飙升。 Polymarket 坚称该用户拥有“丰富的交易经验”并且没有恶意行为。

Wash trading

清洗交易

The evidence of wash trading on the platform appears to be a serious indication of misbehavior. To conduct its analysis, Chaos Labs examined on-chain data to identify high-volume traders, filtering out users who were likely engaged in normal activities like market making. It then separated users who exhibited signs of wash trading by examining their ratio of buy and sell orders and taking account of their share holdings compared to their trading volume. Chaos Labs concluded that around one-third of trading volume—and overall users—on the presidential market alone was likely wash trading, along with across all markets.

该平台上洗售交易的证据似乎是不当行为的严重迹象。为了进行分析，Chaos Labs 检查了链上数据，以识别大交易量的交易者，过滤掉可能从事做市等正常活动的用户。然后，它通过检查买入和卖出订单的比率，并考虑其持股量与交易量的比较，来区分出现清洗交易迹象的用户。 Chaos Labs 得出的结论是，仅总统市场上以及所有市场上的交易量和总体用户中就有大约三分之一可能是洗盘交易。

This practice is common across crypto applications, especially ones with the potential for future token launches and airdrops, where users often earn tokens based on activity. In September, The Information reported that Polymarket has explored launching its own proprietary token.

这种做法在加密应用程序中很常见，尤其是那些有可能在未来发布代币和空投的应用程序，用户通常会根据活动赚取代币。 9 月，The Information 报道称 Polymarket 已探索推出自己的专有代币。

“The challenges of prediction markets are not unlike those of any other application with a market,” said Omer Goldberg, the founder of Chaos Labs, which is backed by Haun Ventures and develops data integrity software. “Wash trading is not specific to Polymarket.”

Chaos Labs 的创始人 Omer Goldberg 表示：“预测市场面临的挑战与任何其他有市场的应用程序所面临的挑战没有什么不同。”Chaos Labs 得到 Haun Ventures 的支持，并开发数据完整性软件。 “洗售交易并不是 Polymarket 特有的。”

Trading volume

交易量

Both Chaos Labs and Inca Digital discovered another anomaly on Polymarket: The purported trading volume on its presidential market, reported in U.S. dollars on Polymarket’s website, does not match the on-chain data. Inca found the actual transaction volume on the presidential betting market to be around $1.75 billion, compared to Polymarket’s reported figure of $2.7 billion.

Chaos Labs 和 Inca Digital 都发现了 Polymarket 的另一个异常现象：Polymarket 网站上以美元报告的总统市场交易量与链上数据不符。 Inca 发现总统博彩市场的实际交易额约为 17.5 亿美元，而 Polymarket 报道的数字为 27 亿美元。

According to Chaos Labs, this is because Polymarket conflates traded shares with U.S. dollars. To clarify, users can buy shares of candidates at different odds. A “yes” share of Hillary Clinton for president costs just $0.01, given the vast unlikelihood that she will be elected, but Chaos Labs found that Polymarket is reporting that share as $1 of volume.

据 Chaos Labs 称，这是因为 Polymarket 将交易股票与美元混为一谈。需要澄清的是，用户可以以不同的赔率购买候选人的股票。鉴于希拉里·克林顿当选总统的可能性极小，“同意”的希拉里·克林顿总统份额只需 0.01 美元，但 Chaos Labs 发现 Polymarket 报告的份额为 1 美元。

This discrepancy, coupled with the wash trading, highlights the untested nature of a platform on which many rely for signals about the presidential election.

这种差异，加上清洗交易，凸显了这个平台未经测试的性质，许多人依赖该平台获取有关总统选举的信号。

However, Polymarket’s decision to operate on blockchain rails also means that researchers like Chaos Labs and Inca Digital can analyze activity. Coplan has

然而，Polymarket 决定在区块链轨道上运营也意味着 Chaos Labs 和 Inca Digital 等研究人员可以分析活动。科普兰有