Polymarket可能并不像你想象的那样对特朗普有偏见

今天早些时候，Vivek 讨论了为什么他认为世界上最大的预测市场加密原生 Polymarket 偏向特朗普

Vivek discussed earlier today why he thinks crypto native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in this upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Vivek 今天早些时候讨论了为什么他认为全球最大的预测市场、加密原生 Polymarket 在即将到来的美国总统选举中偏向特朗普。

While it is plausible given the arguments he laid out, I still believe that it may not be as biased as he may think.

虽然考虑到他提出的论点，这是有道理的，但我仍然相信，这可能不像他想象的那么有偏见。

First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting on these odds to make money, not swear loyalty to their preferred politician.

首先也是最重要的是，预测市场交易者押注这些赔率是为了赚钱，而不是宣誓效忠他们喜欢的政客。

Traders are looking to make a profit and are trying to lock in their bets at attractive odds on who they think will win.

交易者希望赚取利润，并试图以有吸引力的赔率锁定他们认为会获胜的人。

Based on many factors, like positive incoming GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that show Trump has a very solid chance of winning this election.

基于许多因素，例如宾夕法尼亚州等摇摆州的积极共和党选民登记数据，有迹象表明特朗普有很大机会赢得这次选举。

Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said that the recent positive upswing in markets is due to the markets pricing in a Trump victory.

就连亿万富翁斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒也表示，近期市场的积极上涨是由于市场消化了特朗普的胜利。

Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is crypto native, then of course its users support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto.

和 Vivek 一样，许多人声称，既然 Polymarket 是加密货币原生的，那么它的用户当然支持特朗普，因为他也支持比特币和加密货币。

So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto native, market predictions platform, Kalshi.

那么让我们来看看另一个非加密原生的市场预测平台 Kalshi。

On Kalshi, a U.S. betting odds platform that settles contracts in dollars, not Bitcoin or crypto, Trump is also in a massive lead.

在美国博彩赔率平台 Kalshi（以美元而非比特币或加密货币结算合同）上，特朗普也处于巨大领先地位。

Trump is currently up by 20% over Harris. The crowd of users on this platform appear to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their own personal political preferences.

目前特朗普的支持率比哈里斯高出20%。这个平台上的用户群似乎正在选择他们认为将赢得选举的赌注，甚至抛开自己的个人政治偏好。

Reading the comments, I’m seeing many people say they want Trump to win, but are taking the other side of this bet as they believe there may be election fraud from the Democrats which would see Harris ‘win’.

阅读这些评论，我看到很多人说他们希望特朗普获胜，但他们却采取了另一方的赌注，因为他们认为民主党可能存在选举舞弊，这将使哈里斯“获胜”。

“Y'all betting on Trump haven't priced in the probability of delivery vans pulling into the polling stations at 3am with 10's of thousands of ballots, 99% of which going to Kamala they suddenly ‘found,’” commented one user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”

一位用户评论道：“你们所有押注特朗普的人都没有考虑到送货车在凌晨 3 点带着数十万张选票驶入投票站的可能性，其中 99% 的选票都流向了他们突然‘发现’的卡马拉。” “卡马拉无论是否合法获胜，我们已经警告过你了。”

It will be fascinating to watch how these prediction markets play out as we inch closer to the election, which is now only two weeks away.

随着我们距离大选只有两周的时间，观察这些预测市场如何发挥作用将是一件很有趣的事情。

I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these margins will likely get narrower. It appears to me that Trump has got this one in the bag, but it ain’t over until it’s over.

我同意维韦克的观点，即随着选举的临近，这些差距可能会缩小。在我看来，特朗普已经将这一目标收入囊中，但直到结束才算结束。

Last election most people went to sleep thinking Trump had won the election, just for the Democrats to find all these ballots voting for Biden at 3am to win him the election.

上次选举时，大多数人入睡时都以为特朗普赢得了选举，结果民主党在凌晨 3 点发现所有这些选票都投给了拜登，为他赢得了选举。

If there is any election fraud and interference in this upcoming election, these prediction markets may be in for a very volatile time.

如果即将到来的选举存在任何选举舞弊和干扰，这些预测市场可能会陷入非常不稳定的时期。

A Trump win would be massive for Bitcoin on a regulatory level and price wise, due to his proposed policies.

由于他提出的政策，特朗普的胜利对于比特币在监管层面和价格方面来说意义重大。

Under Harris, on the other hand, the future of Bitcoin in this country would be uncertain, as she has not laid out any real details on policy she would implement while as president and has a four year track record of attacking the industry while in office as vice president.

另一方面，在哈里斯的领导下，比特币在这个国家的未来将是不确定的，因为她没有列出她在担任总统期间将实施的政策的任何真正细节，并且在任职期间有四年攻击该行业的记录作为副总统。

Bitcoin Magazine is teaming up with Stand With Crypto to provide real time election coverage on November 5th.

Bitcoin Magazine 与 Stand With Crypto 合作，提供 11 月 5 日的实时选举报道。

So if you’re a Bitcoiner tired of watching mainstream news and want to witness this election from the perspective of a Bitcoiner, make sure to tune into the stream.

因此，如果您是一位厌倦了观看主流新闻的比特币爱好者，并且想从比特币爱好者的角度见证这次选举，请务必收听直播。

More details on the livestream and where to watch here.

有关直播和观看地点的更多详细信息，请点击此处。

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

这篇文章是一个Take。所表达的观点完全是作者的观点，并不一定反映 BTC Inc 或比特币杂志的观点。