Polkadot (DOT) 加密货币明年价格可能翻倍

Polkadot (DOT -1.23%) 加密货币明年的价格可能会翻倍。我知道这是一个强有力的声明，但它也带有短期警告和更大的长期前景。

Cryptocurrency Polkadot (DOT -1.23%) could double in price next year. I know, that's a bold statement -- but it comes with short-term caveats and even greater long-term prospects. So I expect the Web3 cryptocurrency to rise from less that $5 to more than $10 in about a year and a half, but it's still kind of a mixed bag.

加密货币 Polkadot (DOT -1.23%) 明年的价格可能会翻倍。我知道，这是一个大胆的声明，但它也伴随着短期警告和更大的长期前景。因此，我预计 Web3 加密货币将在大约一年半的时间内从不到 5 美元上涨到 10 美元以上，但它仍然是一个鱼龙混杂的市场。

Let's unpack the good and bad news lying ahead for Polkadot and its investors.

让我们来分析一下 Polkadot 及其投资者面临的好消息和坏消息。

How Polkadot supports the decentralized web

Polkadot 如何支持去中心化网络

First, the Polkadot blockchain ecosystem is a crucial part of the Web3 technology revolution. The idea is to cut the web and mobile apps loose from centrally controlled social media powerhouses and give more power to the creators and consumers. Many cryptocurrencies will play significant roles in this shakeup; the Polkadot network and its DOT token are the glue that holds Web3's separate pieces together.

首先，Polkadot区块链生态系统是Web3技术革命的重要组成部分。这个想法是让网络和移动应用程序摆脱集中控制的社交媒体巨头的束缚，并为创作者和消费者赋予更多权力。许多加密货币将在这场变革中发挥重要作用； Polkadot 网络及其 DOT 代币是将 Web3 的各个部分粘合在一起的粘合剂。

Many leading players in the current Web2 system would love to stay in this era, and it's never quick or easy to change the habits and behavior of millions of consumers. Yet, many powerful forces work in Web3's favor, and I think it's an inevitable next step in the evolution of online services.

当前Web2系统中的许多领先者都希望留在这个时代，而改变数百万消费者的习惯和行为从来都不是快速或容易的事情。然而，许多强大的力量都对 Web3 有利，我认为这是在线服务发展中不可避免的下一步。

The rise of Web3 will take a while, of course. The term was first coined 10 years ago, gaining momentum around the coronavirus lockdown era.

当然，Web3 的崛起还需要一段时间。该术语首次创造于十年前，在新冠病毒封锁时期势头强劲。

I'm not saying that decentralized finance apps and highly personalized content platforms will magically appear overnight, upending the web as we know it before the end of 2025. Polkadot's bullish argument is more subtle than that.

我并不是说去中心化金融应用程序和高度个性化的内容平台会在一夜之间神奇地出现，并在 2025 年底之前颠覆我们所知的网络。Polkadot 的看涨论点比这更微妙。

Understanding Polkadot's price moves

了解 Polkadot 的价格走势

I'll get back to Polkadot's future and the Web3 upgrade in a minute. It's time to check out Polkadot's volatile price chart.

我稍后会回到 Polkadot 的未来和 Web3 升级。是时候看看 Polkadot 波动的价格图表了。

It's important to note that $10 apiece isn't new territory for Polkadot's staking and governance token. The token peaked above that benchmark earlier this year, but only after dipping as low as $3.65 per token just five months earlier:

值得注意的是，对于 Polkadot 的质押和治理代币来说，每张 10 美元并不是新领域。该代币在今年早些时候达到了高于该基准的峰值，但仅在五个月前跌至每代币 3.65 美元之后：

Polkadot Price data by YCharts

YCharts 提供的 Polkadot 价格数据

On a longer timescale, the DOT token peaked at $54 in fall 2021, just before the global inflation crisis kicked off. The average Polkadot price is roughly $13 across its four-year history. So going back to $10 next year shouldn't surprise anyone, but the token is just as likely to follow a brief jump with swinging lower again.

从更长的时间范围来看，DOT 代币的价格在 2021 年秋季达到了 54 美元的峰值，就在全球通胀危机爆发之前。四年来，Polkadot 的平均价格约为 13 美元。因此，明年回到 10 美元应该不会让任何人感到惊讶，但该代币很可能会在短暂上涨后再次走低。

That freely moving price chart is why I'm so convinced that Polkadot will regain the $10 level fairly soon. It may not stay there for very long, but a quick win is a quick win.

自由移动的价格图表就是我如此确信 Polkadot 将很快恢复 10 美元水平的原因。它可能不会停留很长时间，但速胜就是速胜。

Why investing in Polkadot could pay off big -- but slowly

为什么投资 Polkadot 可以带来巨大但缓慢的回报

Given all that, I still highly recommend buying some Polkadot tokens while they're still affordable, and then try your hardest not to play the market-timing game. Hold on to those volatile tokens through thick and thin, perhaps adding more by buying Polkadot on the dips or by sticking to a strict dollar-cost averaging plan.

考虑到这一切，我仍然强烈建议在价格还可以承受的时候购买一些 Polkadot 代币，然后尽量不要玩市场时机游戏。无论顺境还是逆境，都要持有这些波动性较大的代币，或许可以通过逢低买入 Polkadot 或坚持严格的美元成本平均计划来增加更多。

You see, the Polkadot community has big dreams, deep pockets, and some serious technology upgrades on the back burner. Chiefly, I'm looking forward to the JAM upgrade, proposed by Polkadot founder Gavin Wood. This project will replace Polkadot's central relay chain with a more powerful, flexible, and faster join-accumulate machine, or JAM network. Not to get too technical, but the JAM idea will focus on tight security and efficient message-passing, letting a separate set of computers do the heavy work of executing code in smart contracts.

你看，Polkadot 社区有着远大的梦想、雄厚的财力，但一些重大的技术升级却被搁置了。首先，我很期待 Polkadot 创始人 Gavin Wood 提出的 JAM 升级。该项目将用更强大、更灵活、更快速的连接累积机器（JAM 网络）取代 Polkadot 的中央中继链。不要太技术化，但 JAM 的想法将专注于严格的安全性和高效的消息传递，让一组单独的计算机完成智能合约中执行代码的繁重工作。

So it's a lightweight cross-network communications solution, backed by plenty of big-iron computing muscle at arms-length.

因此，它是一种轻量级的跨网络通信解决方案，并由大量强大的计算能力提供支持。

After the JAM update, Polkadot should be ready to build interconnected crypto networks at a global scale. At the same time, its inherent processing power could steal moneymaking workloads from smart contract giants Ethereum (ETH 0.65%) and Solana (SOL -0.40%).

JAM 更新后，Polkadot 应该准备好在全球范围内构建互联的加密网络。与此同时，其固有的处理能力可以从智能合约巨头以太坊 (ETH 0.65%) 和 Solana (SOL -0.40%) 那里窃取赚钱的工作负载。

Now, JAM is still in the planning stages and probably won't be available in 2025. Still, the forward-looking upside of this incoming productivity boost should drive the DOT token's price higher over time. As discussed, Polkadot's price can make large moves in a hurry, and the prospect of a better technology platform should be more than enough inspiration for a significant uptick.

现在，JAM 仍处于规划阶段，可能不会在 2025 年推出。不过，随着时间的推移，这种生产力提升的前瞻性优势应该会推动 DOT 代币的价格走高。正如所讨论的，Polkadot 的价格可能会在短时间内出现大幅波动，而更好的技术平台的前景应该足以激发其大幅上涨。

Why now is a great time to invest in Polkadot

为什么现在是投资 Polkadot 的好时机

There you have it: Polkadot looks ready to double in price fairly soon, at least temporarily. At the same time, the real upside of the Web3 sea change and the related Polkadot asset's value lies many years ahead.

现在你已经看到了：Polkadot 的价格看起来很快就会翻倍，至少暂时是这样。与此同时，Web3 巨变和相关 Polkadot 资产价值的真正优势还需要很多年才能实现。

The core principles of buying Polkadot tokens today are simple:

今天购买 Polkadot 代币的核心原则很简单：

So why not pick up a few tokens while they'

那么为什么不在他们的时候捡起一些代币呢？