PI Network的生态系统最多可能需要5年才能完全成熟

PI令牌可能会暂时高至2-3美元的交换清单，但实际价值取决于长期生态系统的执行。

In a candid response to Dr. Nicolas Kokkalis's keynote at Consensus 2025, highlighting Pi Network's AI-era ambitions and decentralized future, respected altcoin expert Dr. Altcoin issued a grounded perspective that challenges the overly bullish outlook.

在对尼古拉斯·科卡利斯（Nicolas Kokkalis）博士在2025年共识上的主题演讲的坦率回应中，强调了PI Network的AI-ERA时代的野心和分散的未来，尊敬的Altcoin专家Altcoin博士发表了扎根的观点，挑战了过于看涨的观点。

While Kokkalis highlighted Open Mainnet, a thriving ecosystem of over a thousand apps, and real-world use cases, Dr. Altcoin pointed out serious structural and executional hurdles that could delay true ecosystem growth for several years.

尽管Kokkalis强调了Open Mainnet，这是一个繁荣的一千多个应用程序的生态系统，而现实世界中的用例，Altcoin博士指出了严重的结构性和执行障碍，这些障碍可能会延迟数年的真实生态系统的增长。

Here's a breakdown of Dr. Altcoin's analysis, which offers a balanced view of the challenges and opportunities facing Pi Network in the coming years:

这是Altcoin博士分析的细分，该分析对未来几年PI网络面临的挑战和机遇提供了平衡的看法：

1. Ecosystem Expansion Needs a Proper Venture Team

1。生态系统扩展需要一个合适的风险团队

Dr. Kokkalis mentioned the increasing number of applications being built on Pi. However, Dr. Altcoin stressed that a dedicated venture support arm is essential for real growth.

Kokkalis博士提到越来越多的PI申请。但是，Altcoin博士强调，专门的风险支持部门对于实际增长至关重要。

"If they want to expand the ecosystem, they need a venture team to provide funding, support, and guidance to developers. Without it, the application development efforts might stall due to a lack of resources and strategic direction," he explained.

他解释说：“如果他们想扩展生态系统，他们需要一个风险投资团队来向开发人员提供资金，支持和指导。没有它，由于缺乏资源和战略方向，应用程序开发工作可能会停滞不前。”

2. Project Funding Selection Could Take 6–12 Months

2。项目资金选择可能需要6-12个月

While the high application count reflects interest, Dr. Altcoin explained that selecting viable projects for funding is a time-consuming process.

尽管高应用计数反映了兴趣，但Altcoin博士解释说，为资金选择可行的项目是一个耗时的过程。

"They will need to sift through proposals, evaluate teams, and shortlist projects, which could take at least 6 to 12 months," he elaborated.

他详细说道：“他们将需要筛选建议，评估团队和入围名单项目，这可能至少需要6到12个月。”

3. Fund Disbursement Will Add Another 3–6 Months

3.基金支出将增加3-6个月

Even after projects are selected, disbursing funds isn't immediate. Dr. Altcoin estimates that developers will likely face a wait of 3 to 6 months before receiving financial support, slowing the ecosystem rollout.

即使选择了项目，也不是立即支付资金。 Altcoin博士估计，开发人员可能会在获得财政支持之前面临3至6个月的等待，从而减慢了生态系统的推出。

4. DApp Development Will Take 1–2 Years

4。DAPP开发将需要1 - 2年

Dr. Altcoin raised concerns over the quality of current DApps, stating that building applications with real-world utility and security will take 1 to 2 years.

Altcoin博士对当前DAPP的质量提出了担忧，并指出具有现实世界实用程序和安全性的构建应用程序将需要1到2年。

"People are excited about the quantity of DApps, but we need to focus on the quality and functionality of these applications," he remarked.

他说：“人们对DAPP的数量感到兴奋，但我们需要关注这些应用的质量和功能。”

5. Full Ecosystem Maturity May Take Up to 5 Years

5。完整的生态系统成熟度可能需要长达5年

According to Dr. Altcoin, a fully developed Pi Network ecosystem — complete with solid infrastructure, funding, and quality applications — is likely 2.5 to 5 years away. The process includes:

根据Altcoin博士的说法，一个完全开发的PI网络生态系统（包括稳定的基础设施，资金和优质应用程序）可能是2.5至5年。该过程包括：

6. PI Token Could See Temporary Surge to $2–$3

6。PI令牌可以看到临时激增至$ 2- $ 3

In the short term, Dr. Altcoin predicts a potential spike in PI's price to around $2–$3 if major exchange listings occur. However, he cautions this would be speculative in nature and not tied to actual ecosystem maturity.

在短期内，Altcoin博士预测，如果发生重大交换列表，PI的价格可能会飙升至2-3美元左右。但是，他警告说，这本质上是投机性的，而不是与实际的生态系统成熟度有关的。

7. Pi Price Today: Volatility Remains High

7。今天的PI价格：波动仍然很高

The current dip shows just how volatile Pi still is, despite community excitement.

尽管社区兴奋，但目前的倾角表明了PI的挥发性静止状况。

Vision vs. Reality

愿景与现实

Dr. Kokkalis's vision was hopeful, but Dr. Altcoin's response offers a necessary reality check. Building a decentralized, functional Pi Network will require years of structured effort, not just speeches and milestones.

Kokkalis博士的愿景充满希望，但是Altcoin博士的回应提供了必要的现实检查。建立一个分散的功能性PI网络将需要多年的结构化努力，而不仅仅是演讲和里程碑。

His final advice to the Pi community: "Lower your expectations for the next five years.”

他对PI社区的最终建议：“降低了未来五年的期望。”