2024 年的 NFT 市场：令人大开眼界，暴露出令人担忧的模式

对于 NFT 领域来说，2024 年是令人大开眼界的一年，随着市场的发展，一些令人担忧的模式也暴露出来。市场正试图保持之前的势头，新系列激增，参与度低，价格急剧下跌。我们通过观察 2024 年 29,079 个新掉落的 NFT 的表现来寻找真相。让我们探索一下讲述这个故事的事实。

2024 has been a revealing year for the NFT space, with some alarming patterns emerging as the market unfolds. The NFT market is attempting to sustain its prior momentum, which featured an influx of new collections, poor participation, and drastic price declines. We sought to uncover the truth by examining the performance of 29,079 new 2024 NFT drops. Let's delve into the facts that paint a clear picture.

2024 年对于 NFT 领域来说是具有启发意义的一年，随着市场的发展，出现了一些令人担忧的模式。 NFT 市场正试图维持之前的势头，即新藏品涌入、参与度低以及价格大幅下跌。我们试图通过检查 2024 年新发行的 29,079 个 NFT 的表现来揭开真相。让我们深入研究描绘清晰图景的事实。

Key Takeaways:

要点：

Methodology

方法论

Data Sources: Dune Analytics and OpenSea

数据来源：Dune Analytics 和 OpenSea

An Oversaturated Market

市场过度饱和

So far in 2024, an average of 3,635 NFT collections have been launched per month. While this indicates that creators are still enthusiastic about launching projects, the sheer volume of collections suggests an oversaturated market. The supply has outpaced demand by a significant margin, leaving many projects vying for attention and buyers.

2024 年迄今为止，平均每月推出 3,635 个 NFT 系列。虽然这表明创作者仍然热衷于推出项目，但收藏品的庞大数量表明市场已经过度饱和。供应大幅超过需求，许多项目都在争夺关注和买家。

98% of 2024 NFT Drops Are Dead

2024 年 98% 的 NFT 掉落都已失效

We define death as the absence of any trading activity since September 2024.

我们将死亡定义为自 2024 年 9 月以来没有任何交易活动。

Based on this, we can conclude that: 98% of 2024 NFT drops are considered dead.

基于此，我们可以得出结论：2024 年 NFT 掉落中 98% 被认为是死亡。

This showcases how rapidly projects fail, leaving a vast majority of collections without liquidity, community, or trading activity. The survival rate for new drops is alarmingly low, indicating that most NFTs struggle to maintain relevance shortly after launch. 

这展示了项目失败的速度有多快，导致绝大多数收藏品缺乏流动性、社区或交易活动。新掉落的存活率低得惊人，这表明大多数 NFT 在发布后不久就难以保持相关性。

When we zoom in on three metrics—minting, trading, and price—the situation worsens.

当我们关注三个指标——铸币、交易和价格时——情况会变得更糟。

Low Minting and Trading Activity

铸币和交易活动低

Despite the high number of new collections, 64% of 2024 NFT drops have less than 10 mints. This stark statistic highlights the difficulty that most creators face in getting their projects off the ground. Furthermore, 98% of NFT drops recorded fewer than 10 trades within the first week. The limited trading volume indicates a lack of excitement or investor confidence in these projects.

尽管新系列数量众多，但 2024 年 NFT 发行量中 64% 的发行量不足 10 枚。这一严峻的统计数据突显了大多数创作者在启动项目时面临的困难。此外，98% 的 NFT 跌幅在第一周内的交易次数少于 10 笔。交易量有限表明投资者对这些项目缺乏兴奋或信心。

Such low engagement suggests that many collections fail to resonate with audiences, perhaps due to a lack of uniqueness, utility, or perceived value. The fast-moving NFT trend may have left creators competing in an overpopulated market where distinguishing themselves is an uphill battle.

如此低的参与度表明，许多藏品未能与观众产生共鸣，这可能是由于缺乏独特性、实用性或感知价值。快速发展的 NFT 趋势可能会让创作者在人口过剩的市场中竞争，在这个市场中，要脱颖而出是一场艰苦的战斗。

Rapid Price Decline

价格快速下跌

One of the most alarming trends in 2024 is the swift depreciation of NFT values following their launch. 98% of 2024 drops follow this pattern: the price drops by at least 50% in the first three days. 

2024 年最令人担忧的趋势之一是 NFT 价值在推出后迅速贬值。 2024 年 98% 的下跌都遵循这种模式：价格在前三天下跌至少 50%。

This sharp decline reflects the waning enthusiasm among buyers and the lack of sustained interest in holding these digital assets.

这种急剧下降反映出买家热情的减弱以及持有这些数字资产缺乏持续的兴趣。

Moreover, 84% of 2024 NFT drops have seen their all-time high price match their mint price, indicating that they never appreciated in value. In a market once driven by speculative trading, this trend suggests that buyers are either losing confidence or becoming more selective in the projects they support.

此外，2024 年 NFT 掉落中，84% 的历史最高价格与铸币价格一致，表明它们从未升值。在曾经由投机交易驱动的市场中，这种趋势表明买家要么失去信心，要么对他们支持的项目变得更加挑剔。

Only a Small Fraction Brings Returns

只有一小部分带来回报

In 2024, only 0.2% of all NFT drops have generated profits for investors. Even among NFTs that are still actively traded (“alive” NFTs), only 11.9% have been profitable, reflecting the overall challenges faced by most projects. These statistics showcase how selective and cautious investors must be, as the vast majority of NFTs struggle to retain or grow their value, making profitability a rare occurrence in the current market landscape.

2024 年，所有 NFT 掉落中只有 0.2% 为投资者带来了利润。即使在仍然活跃交易的 NFT 中（“活着的”NFT），也只有 11.9% 实现了盈利，这反映了大多数项目面临的整体挑战。这些统计数据展示了投资者必须多么挑剔和谨慎，因为绝大多数 NFT 都在努力保留或增长其价值，使得盈利在当前市场格局中很少见。

What Does This Mean for the Future?

这对未来意味着什么？

The data presents a clear narrative: while NFTs continue to be a hotbed for innovation, the market is currently flooded with projects that struggle to gain traction. With oversaturation, low minting rates, and poor price performance, creators may need to reconsider their strategies, focusing on building community and offering tangible utility to stand out.

数据清晰地说明了这一点：虽然 NFT 仍然是创新的温床，但市场目前充斥着难以获得吸引力的项目。由于过度饱和、铸币率低和性价比差，创作者可能需要重新考虑他们的策略，专注于建设社区并提供有形的实用性以脱颖而出。