在比特币价格崩溃中，MST股票暴跌：深度潜水

MST股票面临逆风，因为比特币步履蹒跚，并且MNAV多个命中率逐年低。这是购买机会还是痛苦的迹象？

Hold on to your hats, folks! The crypto rollercoaster is at it again, and this time, MSTR stock is feeling the G-force. With Bitcoin taking a tumble, let's break down what's happening with MSTR and what it all means.

抓住你的帽子，伙计们！加密过山车又来了，这次，MSTR股票感觉到G-Force。随着比特币的流失，让我们分解MSTR的情况以及一切的含义。

MSTR Stock: Down But Not Out?

MSTR股票：下降但不出去？

MSTR stock, often seen as a leveraged play on Bitcoin, has taken a beating. Recent trading saw it dip to levels not seen since April, erasing its year-to-date gains. This drop coincides with Bitcoin's own struggles, falling below $109,000, a level not seen in nearly a month. The stock price crashed below an important support level as Bitcoin fell below $110,000 and as its mNAV multiple reached its year-to-date low. Strategy stock price traded $297 on Thursday, its lowest level since April, and 35% below its all time high. This crash has brought its market capitalization from the year-to-date high of $129 billion to now $84 billion. Ouch!

MSTR Stock经常被视为比特币上的杠杆作用，受到了殴打。最近的交易使其下降到自4月以来未见的水平，从而消除了其年初的收益。这次下降与比特币自己的挣扎相吻合，低于109,000美元，这一水平近一个月未见。随着比特币低于110,000美元，其MNAV倍数达到其年度最低水平，股价跌至重要的支持水平以下。战略股票价格在周四交易297美元，其最低水平自4月以来，比历史最高水平低35％。这次崩溃使其市值从年初至今的高价提高到现在的1290亿美元到现在的840亿美元。哎哟!

Bitcoin's Bearish Signals

比特币的看跌信号

Bitcoin's technical charts are flashing some warning signs. The formation of a head-and-shoulders pattern and a rising wedge suggests potential further downside. A prolonged Bitcoin price crash would be negative for Strategy, a company that has become the biggest holder globally. It holds 639,835 coins, currently worth $69 billion. The same coins would be worth $80 billion if it was at its all-time high of $124,200.

比特币的技术图表正在闪烁一些警告标志。头和肩的形成和上升的楔形表明潜在的不利方面。长时间的比特币价格崩溃对战略而言是负面的，该公司在全球范围内已成为最大的持有人。它拥有639,835个硬币，目前价值690亿美元。如果它的历史最高点为124,200美元，同一硬币的价值将价值800亿美元。

The mNAV Multiple: A Key Indicator

MNAV倍数：关键指示器

The mNAV (market cap to net asset value) multiple is a crucial metric for MSTR. It reflects the premium investors are willing to pay for the company's Bitcoin holdings. This multiple has plunged to a year-to-date low, impacting MSTR's ability to raise capital for further Bitcoin acquisitions. The falling mNAV multiple is risky for the company because it uses its premium to raise capital, which it uses to buy Bitcoin. For a long time, Saylor’s rule was that he would not issue shares if the mNAV moved below 2.5. He changed it in August, opening the door for more dilution.

MNAV（净资产净值）多重值是MSTR的关键指标。它反映了高级投资者愿意为公司的比特币持有量付费。这倍数已经跌至一年一度的低点，影响了MSTR筹集更多比特币收购资本的能力。 MNAV下降的倍数对公司来说是有风险的，因为它使用其溢价来筹集资本，该资本用来购买比特币。很长一段时间以来，塞勒的规则是，如果MNAV提升到2.5以下，他将不会发行股票。他在八月改变了它，打开了更多稀释的大门。

Federal Reserve's Role

美联储的角色

Adding to the uncertainty is the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Hawkish comments from Fed officials, suggesting caution in cutting rates, have spooked the market. This could further pressure Bitcoin and, consequently, MSTR. Federal Reserve’s Beth Hammack Warns Again Interest Rate Cuts, Unlike other Federal Reserve officials, Hammack believes that the bank should focus on inflation, which remains at elevated levels. It has remained above the Fed’s target of 2.0% in the last four years and that it will take longer to reach the target. She expects rate cuts to trigger higher inflation in the coming months.

美联储对利率的立场加上不确定性。美联储官员的鹰派评论表明，削减速度的谨慎，使市场吓到了市场。这可能会进一步施加压力比特币，从而进一步压力MSTR。与其他美联储官员不同，美联储的贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）再次警告说，哈马克（Hammack）认为，该银行应专注于通货膨胀，该通货膨胀率保持较高的水平。在过去的四年中，它一直高于美联储的目标2.0％，到达目标需要更长的时间。她预计在未来几个月内，降低利率将触发更高的通货膨胀。

Technical Analysis: More Downside Ahead?

技术分析：未来的方面还有更多缺点？

Technical analysis of MSTR stock reveals bearish patterns, including a death cross (when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average). This suggests potential further declines, with a key support level around $250. The daily timeframe chart shows that the MSTR stock has crashed from a high of $457 in July to $295 today. It dropped below the important support level at $318, where it failed to move below several times this month. Worse, the stock is about to form the risky death cross pattern as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages has narrowed.

MSTR库存的技术分析揭示了看跌模式，包括死亡十字架（当50天移动平均线交叉低于200天移动平均线时）。这表明潜在的进一步下降，关键支持水平约为250美元。每日时间表图显示，MST的股票已从7月的457美元跌至今天的295美元。它以318美元的价格下降到重要的支持水平以下，本月未能以低于几次的速度移动。更糟糕的是，随着50天和200天的指数移动平均值的差异已缩小，该股票即将形成危险的死亡交叉模式。

My Take

我的看法

While the current situation looks grim for MSTR, it's important to remember the volatile nature of the crypto market. MSTR's fate is closely tied to Bitcoin's performance, making it a high-risk, high-reward investment. Investors should proceed with caution and consider their risk tolerance before making any decisions. The MSTR stock price has plunged in the past few months and moved into a deep bear market after plunging by over 26% from the year-to-date high.

尽管当前的情况对MSTR来说看起来很严峻，但重要的是要记住加密货币市场的动荡性。 MSTR的命运与比特币的表现密切相关，使其成为高风险，高回报的投资。投资者应谨慎行事，并在做出任何决定之前考虑其风险承受能力。在过去的几个月中，MST的股票价格跌至深熊市，从截至年前高达26％以上，进入了一个深熊市。

With Thursday's nosedive, BTC is now on the brink of taking out the lows of late August-early September, when it bottomed just above $107,000. That price level could serve as support at least for a bounce, with order books also showing a liquidity cluster which could absorb selling pressure.

随着周四的鼻子，BTC现在正处于8月下旬至9月的低点，当时它触底了107,000美元以上。这个价格水平至少可以作为反弹的支持，其中订单书还显示了一个流动性集群，可能会吸收销售压力。

Looking Ahead

展望未来

So, what's next for MSTR and Bitcoin? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: it's going to be a wild ride. Buckle up, crypto enthusiasts!

那么，MSTR和比特币的下一步是什么？只有时间会证明。但是可以肯定的是：这将是一个疯狂的旅程。搭扣，加密爱好者！