摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）现在预测，即2025年的美联储率降低，这是一个重大的预测转变。掉头的背后是什么，对市场意味着什么？

Morgan Stanley's Forecast Flip: Decoding the Fed Rate Cut U-Turn

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley

Get this: Morgan Stanley's completely changed its tune on interest rates, now betting on Fed rate cuts in 2025. Buckle up, because this forecast flip is a big deal.

明白：摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）完全改变了对利率的调整，现在在2025年降低了降价。

The Big Reveal: Morgan Stanley's U-Turn

大揭示：摩根士丹利的掉头

Just weeks ago, the word on the street was no rate cuts this year, according to Morgan Stanley. Now? They're calling for two cuts in 2025 – 25 basis points each in September and December – with more to come in 2026. That's quite a pivot!

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）说，就在几周前，今年街上的话没有降低速度。现在？他们呼吁在2025年和12月的2025年至25个基点中进行两次削减 - 在2026年将有更多的削减。这是一个很重要的！

Powell's Jackson Hole Hint

鲍威尔的杰克逊洞提示

So, what gives? Apparently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole dropped some hints. Instead of harping on inflation, Powell seemed more worried about the labor market. Morgan Stanley thinks this means the Fed might act sooner to protect jobs.

那么，什么给呢？显然，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在杰克逊·霍尔（Jackson Hole）的讲话抛弃了一些提示。鲍威尔似乎不再担心通货膨胀，而是更担心劳动力市场。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）认为这意味着美联储可能会更快地采取行动来保护工作。

More Banks Joining the Chorus

更多的银行加入合唱

Morgan Stanley isn't the only one seeing things this way. Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank are also predicting a rate cut next month. ING even sees cuts coming in September, October, and December 2025, with a bigger one in 2026. Seems like the winds are changing.

摩根士丹利并不是唯一这样看到事物的人。巴克莱，法国巴黎银行和德意志银行还预测下个月降低了税率。 Ing甚至看到削减在2026年9月，10月和12月的削减，在2026年较大。似乎风正在改变。

Market's Betting on It

市场上的赌注

The markets are putting their money where their mouth is. Traders are now pricing in an 81.9% chance of a September move, according to LSEG data. CME FedWatch is even more bullish, pegging the probability at 84.3%. But, Bank of America is still holding out, predicting no change this year.

市场将他们的钱放在他们的嘴里。根据LSEG数据，交易者现在以81.9％的机会定价。 CME FedWatch更为看涨，将概率固定在84.3％。但是，美国银行仍在坚持下去，预测今年没有变化。

Trump's Political Curveball

特朗普的政治曲线球

Politics are always in the mix, right? President Trump's comments about potentially removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook are adding another layer of uncertainty. JPMorgan analysts warn this could shake up the FOMC and raise questions about the Fed's independence.

政治总是混在一起的，对吗？特朗普总统关于潜在撤职州长丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的评论正在增加另一层不确定性。摩根大通分析师警告说，这可能会动摇FOMC并提出有关美联储独立性的疑问。

All Eyes on September FOMC Meeting

九月FOMC会议的所有人

Morgan Stanley is playing it cool, giving a September cut only a 50% chance, given ongoing inflation worries and political heat. The September 16-17 FOMC meeting is circled on everyone's calendar. A Fed move toward easier money could juice up markets, especially for crypto like Bitcoin.

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的表现很酷，鉴于持续的通货膨胀令人担忧和政治炎热，9月份的机会只有50％的机会。 9月16日至17日的FOMC会议在每个人的日历上盘旋。美联储朝着更容易的钱转向市场，尤其是对于像比特币这样的加密货币而言。

The Ethereum Angle: A Sneaky Advantage?

以太坊角度：偷偷摸摸的优势？

Here's where things get interesting. While everyone's obsessing over rate cuts, Ethereum is quietly becoming the darling of institutional investors. Its staking yields (think 4-6%) and deflationary mechanics are making it a hot alternative to low-yielding U.S. Treasuries. The SEC is providing regulatory clarity, and even the big players like BlackRock are getting in on the Ethereum ETF action. Could Ethereum be the real winner in this whole rate cut saga? I am not saying it is, but I am saying to pay attention.

这是事情变得有趣的地方。尽管每个人都痴迷于削减税率，但以太坊正在悄悄地成为机构投资者的宠儿。它的积分产量（认为4-6％）和通缩机制使其成为低收产美国国库的热门替代品。 SEC提供了法规清晰度，甚至像BlackRock这样的大型参与者也在采用以太坊ETF行动。以太坊可以成为整个速度削减传奇的真正赢家吗？我并不是说是，但我说要注意。

Final Thoughts: The Fed's Next Move

最终想法：美联储的下一步行动

So, there you have it. Morgan Stanley flipped its forecast, Powell dropped some hints, and the market's buzzing. September's shaping up to be a wild ride. Will the Fed pull the trigger? Stay tuned, because this is one plot twist you don't want to miss. And hey, maybe keep an eye on Ethereum while you're at it – just sayin'!

所以，你有。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）翻转了预报，鲍威尔（Powell）放弃了一些提示，市场的嗡嗡声。九月的塑造是疯狂的旅程。美联储会拉动扳机吗？请继续关注，因为这是您不想错过的一个情节扭曲。嘿，也许在您时要注意以太坊 - 只是说！