婚姻，离婚和预测：导航婚姻的模糊水域

探索婚姻和离婚的复杂性，以及预测婚姻结果的挑战。不仅仅是硬币折腾！

We're obsessed with quantifying life's big mysteries, but can we really boil down something as complex as marriage to a simple statistic? The dynamics of 'Marriage, divorce, prediction' are constantly evolving, making it a challenge to pin down definitive answers. Let's dive in.

我们痴迷于量化人生的大谜团，但是我们真的可以将像婚姻和简单统计数据一样复杂的事物归结吗？ “婚姻，离婚，预测”的动态正在不断发展，这使确定确定答案的挑战是一个挑战。让我们潜水。

The Half-Marriage Myth: Is Divorce Really a Coin Toss?

半婚神话：离婚真的是硬币吗？

You've probably heard the claim: "Half of all marriages end in divorce." It's catchy, dramatic, and seemingly everywhere. But hold on a second – it's also a massive oversimplification. Measuring divorce rates is trickier than it looks. Depending on the data and the metrics you use, you can paint wildly different pictures, from a "divorce epidemic" to a "divorce decline".

您可能听说过这一说法：“所有婚姻的一半以离婚告终。”这是吸引人的，戏剧性的，而且似乎到处都是。但是请稍等一下 - 这也是一个大量的过度简化。衡量离婚率比看起来要棘手。根据您使用的数据和指标，您可以描绘出截然不同的图片，从“离婚流行病”到“离婚下降”。

Decoding the Divorce Data

解码离婚数据

So, how do demographers try to get a handle on this? They use various measures, each with its own flaws. The "divorce-to-marriage ratio" sounds simple, but it compares divorces from old marriages to new marriages in the same year – apples and oranges! The "crude divorce rate" counts divorces per 1,000 people, including those not even in the dating pool. The "refined divorce rate" focuses on divorces per 1,000 married women, but even that is skewed. As people marry later and fewer remarry, the pool of married women becomes more selective and stable, making it harder to capture a complete picture.

那么，人口统计学家如何尝试解决这个问题？他们使用各种措施，每个措施都有自己的缺陷。 “离婚与婚姻比率”听起来很简单，但是它比较了同年从旧婚姻与新婚姻的离婚 - 苹果和橘子！ “原始离婚率”计算为每1000人的离婚，其中包括在约会池中的人。 “精致的离婚率”集中于每1000名已婚妇女的离婚，但即使如此偏向。随着人们的结婚，再婚的人数更少，已婚妇女的池变得更加选择性和稳定，使得捕捉完整的照片变得更加困难。

The Crystal Ball: Predicting Marital Outcomes

水晶球：预测婚姻结果

What we really want to know is: what proportion of marriages will end in divorce? The widely-cited "half of all marriages" statistic comes from analyses in the 80s and 90s. Demographers used "life tables" (borrowed from mortality research) to estimate the 'survival' of marriages. Think of tracking 100 couples married in the same year, checking in to see how many have split up over time.

我们真正想知道的是：婚姻比例将以离婚结束？引用的“所有婚姻的一半”统计数据来自80年代和90年代的分析。人口统计学家使用“救生表”（从死亡率研究中借用）来估计婚姻的“生存”。想想跟踪同年的100对夫妇结婚，然后检查一下，看看有多少夫妇随着时间的流逝而分裂。

Using data from the 2023 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), a calculation of how the chance of divorce accumulates over time, called the cumulative divorce probability is available. For couples married in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, nearly half of marriages had ended in divorce by the end of the observation window. But here’s the catch: it takes decades to get complete results. By the time we know the outcome of marriages from the 90s, those findings feel like ancient history.

使用2023年收入和计划参与调查（SIPP）的数据，可以计算离婚的机会随着时间的流逝如何积累，称为累积离婚概率。对于在70年代，80年代和90年代结婚的夫妻来说，在观察窗口结束时，近一半的婚姻已经离婚了。但这是捕获：获得完整的结果需要数十年。到我们知道90年代婚姻的结果时，这些发现就像古老的历史。

The Hypothetical Marriage: A Modern Snapshot

假设的婚姻：现代快照

Instead of waiting decades, we can combine divorce rates among newlyweds, couples married one year, two years, and so on. This creates a hypothetical "typical" marriage, projecting how many marriages would end in divorce if today’s newlyweds faced those same risks throughout their lives.

我们可以将离婚率结合在一起，而不是等待几十年，而是结合了新婚夫妇，而是结婚了一年，两年等。这会造成一个假设的“典型”婚姻，预计如果今天的新婚夫妇一生都面临着同样的风险，那么有多少婚姻将以离婚结束。

According to data from the American Community Survey (ACS) in 2008, 2015, and 2023, the projected share of first marriages that would end in divorce sits lower across all durations in 2023, hinting at a decline in divorce risk. But it's like estimating how far you can drive on a full tank – it assumes current conditions will hold steady, which is rarely the case.

根据2008年，2015年和2023年美国社区调查（ACS）的数据，预计在2023年所有持续时间的离婚结束的预计第一婚姻的份额均较低，这暗示了离婚风险的下降。但这就像估计您可以在全油箱上行驶多远了 - 它假设当前状况会保持稳定，情况很少。

So, what's the bottom line? One estimate suggests that about 42% of first marriages today will eventually end in divorce if current patterns persist. But remember, marriage isn't a coin toss. It's a moving target, and our measures are based on assumptions as fluid as the institution itself.

那么，最重要的是什么？一个估计表明，如果当前的模式持续存在，今天约有42％的第一婚姻最终将离婚。但是请记住，婚姻不是硬币折腾。这是一个移动的目标，我们的措施基于与机构本身一样流动的假设。

The Power of Female Friendships: A Different Kind of Union

女性友谊的力量：另一种联盟

While we're talking about relationships, let's not forget the importance of friendships, especially female friendships. As Melinda French Gates highlighted, strong female friendships can provide unwavering support during tough times, like her divorce from Bill Gates. These "truth councils" offer honest feedback, different perspectives, and a sense of belonging, proving that there are many kinds of unions that sustain us.

当我们谈论人际关系时，我们不要忘记友谊的重要性，尤其是女性友谊。正如梅琳达·法国大门（Melinda French Gates）强调的那样，强大的女性友谊可以在艰难时期提供坚定不移的支持，例如她与比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）的离婚。这些“真相理事会”提供了诚实的反馈，不同的观点和归属感，证明有许多工会维持我们。

Pi Coin and Predictions in the Crypto World

PI硬币和加密世界中的预测

In other prediction news, let's peek at the crypto world. Pi Coin recently saw a price increase, driven by a surge in trading volume and positive market sentiment. Predictions estimate it could trade between $0.4470 and $0.5200 this week. While this is a very different landscape, it highlights our constant desire to predict the future, whether it's in love or finance.

在其他预测新闻中，让我们窥视加密世界。 Pi Coin最近的价格上涨，这是由于交易量和积极市场情绪激增的驱动。预测估计，本周的交易可能在0.4470至0.5200美元之间。尽管这是一个截然不同的景观，但它突出了我们不断预测未来的愿望，无论是在恋爱还是金融中。

Final Thoughts: Embrace the Uncertainty

最终想法：拥抱不确定性

So, what have we learned? Predicting the future of marriage (or anything, really) is a messy business. But maybe that's okay! Instead of stressing over statistics, let's focus on building strong, supportive relationships, whether they're romantic partnerships or cherished friendships. After all, life's too short to worry about being a statistic. Now go out there and make some memories – just maybe not based on a prediction!

那么，我们学到了什么？预测婚姻的未来（或实际上）是一件混乱的事。但是也许没关系！我们不必强调统计数据，而要专注于建立牢固的支持性关系，无论他们是浪漫的伙伴关系还是珍贵的友谊。毕竟，生活太短了，无法担心成为统计数据。现在去那里做一些回忆 - 也许不是基于预测！