市场准备迎接下行趋势，莱特币 (LTC) 钱包盈利能力创 2021 年新高

过去一个月莱特币 (LTC) 上涨了 50% 以上，反映了整个山寨币市场的普遍上涨。然而，尽管出现了这种反弹，但一些分析师实际上认为莱特币可能已经死了。

Litecoin (LTC) price has surged by more than 50% over the past month, largely mirroring the widespread gains across the altcoin market. However, despite this rally, some analysts now believe that Litecoin may be “dead.”

过去一个月莱特币 (LTC) 价格飙升了 50% 以上，很大程度上反映了山寨币市场的普遍上涨。然而，尽管出现了这种反弹，但一些分析师现在认为莱特币可能已经“死了”。

In an X post, popular analyst Ali Martinez noted that LTC is now trading at the same price as it was back in 2017. Moreover, he argued that it now lacks the strong fundamentals to drive any long-term growth.

受欢迎的分析师阿里·马丁内斯 (Ali Martinez) 在 X 帖子中指出，LTC 目前的交易价格与 2017 年相同。此外，他认为现在缺乏推动长期增长的强劲基本面。

According to him, while LTC might continue to register some short-term gains, it will still be stuck within a consolidation range, rendering it a dull investment for the year.

他表示，虽然 LTC 可能会继续获得一些短期收益，但仍将陷入盘整区间，使其成为今年的一项平淡投资。

Here’s a look at some on-chain metrics that could provide further insight into Litecoin’s price performance.

以下是一些链上指标，可以进一步了解莱特币的价格表现。

Litecoin wallet profitability hits 2021 highs

莱特币钱包盈利能力创 2021 年新高

Despite this bearish outlook, Litecoin’s recent gains have led to a surge in the number of wallets that are in profit to its highest levels since 2021.

尽管前景悲观，但莱特币近期的上涨导致盈利的钱包数量激增，达到 2021 年以来的最高水平。

In fact, data from IntoTheBlock revealed that 78% of LTC holders, equating to 6.33 million addresses, are now profitable.

事实上，IntoTheBlock 的数据显示，78% 的 LTC 持有者（相当于 633 万个地址）目前正在盈利。

Conversely, the wallets that are in losses have dropped from 46% to 16% in just one month.

相反，短短一个月内，亏损的钱包就从 46% 下降到 16%。

A spike in wallet profitability could increase market confidence and lead to a bullish outlook for Litecoin. However, some traders might start to take profits, causing the trend to weaken.

钱包盈利能力的飙升可能会增强市场信心并导致莱特币的看涨前景。然而，一些交易者可能开始获利了结，导致趋势减弱。

Is a high address count a positive indicator?

地址数高是积极指标吗？

The number of active addresses on Litecoin stood at 364,000 at press time – A higher count than for most altcoins. For instance, Cardano (ADA), an altcoin with a market capitalization that is four times higher, has around 41,000 active addresses.

截至发稿时，莱特币的活跃地址数量为 364,000 个——这一数字高于大多数山寨币。例如，卡尔达诺（ADA）是一种市值是其四倍的山寨币，拥有约 41,000 个活跃地址。

(Source: IntoTheBlock)

（来源：IntoTheBlock）

On the contrary, a look at the long-term picture revealed that Litecoin’s address count has been on a downward trajectory. Especially since at the start of the year, the active addresses stood at more than one million.

相反，从长期来看，莱特币的地址数量一直呈下降趋势。尤其是今年年初以来，活跃地址超过一百万。

This suggests that Litecoin’s utility has dropped this year, which could have a negative impact on the price.

这表明莱特币的效用今年有所下降，这可能会对价格产生负面影响。

Litecoin price analysis as THESE bearish signs emerge

这些看跌迹象出现时的莱特币价格分析

Litecoin, at press time, was trading at $123 after gains of 1.57% in 24 hours. This altcoin could be on the verge of a downtrend after an inverse cup and handle pattern appeared on its four-hour chart.

截至发稿时，莱特币交易价格为 123 美元，24 小时内上涨 1.57%。在四小时图表上出现反向杯柄图案后，这种山寨币可能处于下降趋势的边缘。

If Litecoin succumbs to this bearish pressure and the price reverses itself, traders should watch out for the neckline of this pattern at $100.65. Especially since a drop below could trigger more losses.

如果莱特币屈服于这种看跌压力并且价格自行反转，交易者应该留意该模式的颈线 100.65 美元。特别是跌破可能引发更多损失。

(Source: Tradingview)

（来源：Tradingview）

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) implied that buying pressure has been weakening due to its drop to the zero line. If it flips negative, it could indicate a surge in selling activity that could lead to bearish trends.

蔡金资金流向（CMF）暗示，由于跌至零线，购买压力正在减弱。如果它转为负数，则可能表明抛售活动激增，从而可能导致看跌趋势。

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence’s (MACD) histogram bars pointed to weak buying pressure. However, the MACD line on the lower timeframe was positive – A sign that momentum was still slightly bullish.

与此同时，移动平均线趋同分歧（MACD）柱状图表明买盘压力较弱。然而，较低时间框架内的 MACD 线为正——这表明势头仍然略为看涨。

Litecoin’s Open Interest drops

莱特币的未平仓合约下降

Finally, data from Coinglass indicated that speculative activity around Litecoin has dropped after hitting a multi-month peak earlier this month when the OI surged to $706M.

最后，Coinglass 的数据表明，在本月初 OI 飙升至 7.06 亿美元时触及数月高点后，围绕莱特币的投机活动已经有所下降。

At press time, Litecoin’s OI had dropped to $531M – A sign that some traders had closed their positions.

截至发稿时，莱特币的 OI 已降至 5.31 亿美元——这表明一些交易者已经平仓。

(Source: Coinglass)

（来源：Coinglass）

A drop in OI could mean bearish sentiment due to reduced market participation as traders become cautious and indecisive.

由于交易者变得谨慎和优柔寡断，市场参与减少，持仓下降可能意味着看跌情绪。