丽莎·波琳·马塔克尔（Lisa Pauline Mattackal）

卖卖派对很晚。但是，比特币终于在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统的贸易战所吓到的投资者中夺回了其位置，并热衷于抛弃美国股票，国库和美元。

President Donald Trump's trade war is pushing investors to sell the U.S. stock market, the dollar and Treasuries. But it’s late to the sell-USA party. Bitcoin (BTC) is finally reclaiming its place as a big alternative.

唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易战正在促使投资者出售美国股票市场，美元和国库。但这是卖出美国派对的晚期。比特币（BTC）终于回收了它作为一个很大的选择。

After an initial tumble to its lowest levels this year soon after Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs on April 2, the notoriously volatile bitcoin has slowly clawed back ground.

在特朗普在4月2日宣布解放日关税之后不久，今年不久的最低水平达到了最低水平后，臭名昭著的挥发性比特币逐渐逐渐向后倾斜。

It managed to outperform stock markets in 10 out of 17 sessions in that period, according to data from VanEck.

根据Vaneck的数据，在此期间的17个会议中，它在17个会议中的10次中设法超越了股票市场。

The world’s top and original cryptocurrency is now a whisker away from the $100,000 mark last seen three months ago, following a 15% rise in April alone.

现在，仅在四月就上涨15％之后，世界上最高的加密货币和原始加密货币距离上次触及了100,000美元的大关。

By comparison, the S&P 500 slipped around 0.8% in April, the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite eked out 0.8% gains last month, while the U.S. dollar index fell over 4%.

相比之下，标准普尔500指数在4月下跌了约0.8％，以技术为重点的纳斯达克综合材料上个月获得了0.8％的收益，而美元指数下跌了4％。

“The most recent price action may have begun to validate the view that Bitcoin is not just the 501st company in the SPX,” analysts at research firm Block Scholes said.

研究公司Block Scholes的分析师说：“最近的价格行动可能已经开始验证比特币不仅是SPX中的第501家公司的观点。”

Bitcoin is up 33% from its April low in a surprising turn for the cryptocurrency, given how closely it has mimicked the performance of equity markets in periods of market turmoil- particularly the tech sector – over the past few years.

对于加密货币来说，比特币在4月份的低位方面增长了33％，因为在过去几年中，它在市场动荡时期（尤其是科技行业）中模仿了股票市场的表现。

Correlations between bitcoin and other asset classes have also shifted, according to Block Scholes, and bitcoin is the most inversely correlated to the steepness of the Treasury yield curve in over two years.

根据Block Scholes的说法，比特币与其他资产类别之间的相关性也发生了变化，比特币与两年来国库产量曲线的陡峭度最重要。

“Investors are really starting to respond to (bitcoin) as a potential diversifier,” said Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors.

IDX Advisors首席投资官Ben McMillan说：“投资者确实开始对（比特币）做出回应。”

Bitcoin has even outperformed gold’s 11% rise since April 2, despite the safe-haven metal’s surge to record highs. Measures of bitcoin’s expected volatility have dropped to 18-month lows, as per Block Scholes.

自从4月2日以来，比特币的表现甚至超过了Gold的增长，尽管安全的金属飙升可创下高潮。根据块学者，比特币预期波动率的量度已下降至18个月的低点。

“The damage has been done in terms of trust towards the U.S. and dollar assets … but you can’t (diversify) overnight,” said Martin Leinweber, director of digital asset research & strategy at MarketVector Indexes.

MarketVector Indexes数字资产研究与战略总监Martin Leinweber说：“损害是根据对美国和美元资产的信任而造成的……但是您不能在一夜之间（多元化）。”

“What kind of neutral assets do you have? Underlying that is really a supportive shift towards bitcoin and crypto.”

“您拥有什么样的中性资产？这确实是向比特币和加密货币的支持。”

Investors have also turned more bullish on digital asset-focused investment products, with roughly $5.5 billion over the last three weeks flowing into those funds, as per CoinShares data, including $1.8 billion in the week through May 3 for bitcoin products.

根据Coinshares数据，投资者还对以数字资产为中心的投资产品更加看好，在过去的三周中，投资者约有55亿美元流入这些资金，其中包括一周至5月3日的比特币产品的18亿美元。

If changing tariff policies continue to drive a move away from U.S. assets, bitcoin could find its next leg higher, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank said in a note to clients.

标准特许银行数字资产研究负责人杰夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）在向客户的一份报告中说，如果不断变化的关税政策继续远离美国资产，则比特币可能会发现其下一个腿部更高的问题。

“We expect a strategic asset reallocation away from U.S. assets to trigger the next sharp upswing in bitcoin in the coming months,” Kendrick said, adding he sees bitcoin hitting a new record high of around $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025.

肯德里克说：“我们预计，在未来几个月中，我们的资产将获得战略资产重新分配，以触发比特币的下一个急剧上升。”

TOO MUCH, TOO SOON

太早了

It’s far too early, however, to say bitcoin has severed its ties with macroeconomic developments.

但是，现在说比特币已经与宏观经济发展的联系还为时过早。

Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 briefly dipped to 0.45 in early April but has crept back up to 0.87, as per LSEG data, where 1 indicates they are moving in lockstep.

比特币与标准普尔500指数的30天相关性在4月初短暂降至0.45，但根据LSEG数据，逐回到0.87，其中1表示它们正在锁定。

And it still remains some ways away from its January record high.

而且仍然有一些距离其一月份的纪录高的方式。

“I think we’ll inevitably see periods going forward where bitcoin’s correlation (to risk assets) rises again,” said IDX Advisors’ McMillan.

IDX Advisors的Mcmillan说：“我认为我们将不可避免地看到比特币的相关性（风险资产）再次上升的时期。”

“But the key point is, it is starting to take on trading characteristics of its own.”

“但是关键是，它开始具有自己的交易特征。”