iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT)：它能让你成为百万富翁吗？

一月份推出的新现货比特币 (BTC -0.17%) ETF 无疑是加密货币市场今年最大的事件之一。

The launch of the new spot Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs in January was easily one of the biggest events of the year for the crypto market. As soon as these ETFs started trading, money began flooding into them as a way to get exposure to Bitcoin.

一月份推出的新现货比特币（加密货币：BTC）ETF 无疑是加密货币市场今年最大的事件之一。这些 ETF 一开始交易，资金就开始涌入它们，作为投资比特币的一种方式。

Thus far, the biggest standout among the nearly dozen new spot Bitcoin ETFs is the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:IBIT) from BlackRock. With more than $40 billion in assets under management, it is now considered the benchmark spot Bitcoin ETF.

到目前为止，在近十个新现货比特币 ETF 中，最引人注目的是贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 iShares 比特币信托 (NYSE:IBIT)。它管理的资产超过 400 亿美元，目前被认为是基准现货比特币 ETF。

It is also the easiest way for the everyday investor to get exposure to Bitcoin. But is it a millionaire maker?

这也是普通投资者接触比特币的最简单方法。但这是百万富翁制造者吗？

An ETF that tracks Bitcoin's price performance

跟踪比特币价格表现的 ETF

The iShares Bitcoin Trust holds only a single asset: Bitcoin. Unlike traditional ETFs, which typically hold a diversified basket of stocks, this ETF makes no attempt to diversify away from Bitcoin. This might not be good news if you're looking for diversified exposure to the broader crypto market, but it's fantastic news if all you want is exposure to Bitcoin.

iShares 比特币信托仅持有一种资产：比特币。与通常持有多元化一揽子股票的传统 ETF 不同，该 ETF 并未尝试摆脱比特币的多元化。如果您正在寻求更广泛的加密货币市场的多元化投资，这可能不是个好消息，但如果您只想投资比特币，那么这就是个好消息。

Holding only a single asset makes it possible for the iShares Bitcoin Trust to track the daily price of Bitcoin on a nearly 1:1 basis. And, indeed, if you look at a chart comparing the performance of the iShares Bitcoin Trust to the performance of Bitcoin, you'll see that it does an excellent job of tracking Bitcoin.

仅持有单一资产使得 iShares Bitcoin Trust 能够以近 1:1 的比例追踪比特币的每日价格。事实上，如果您查看将 iShares 比特币信托基金的表现与比特币的表现进行比较的图表，您会发现它在跟踪比特币方面做得非常出色。

Bitcoin / U.S. dollar chart by TradingView

比特币/美元图表由TradingView提供

Of course, it's impossible to get perfect 1:1 tracking. Bitcoin trades globally, on a 24/7 basis, while Wall Street is only open for business during certain hours of the day and week. But the iShares Bitcoin Trust is arguably as close as you're going to get to 1:1 tracking of Bitcoin without buying it directly in the spot cryptocurrency market yourself.

当然，完美的1:1跟踪是不可能的。比特币在全球范围内 24/7 进行交易，而华尔街仅在一天和一周的特定时间开放。但 iShares 比特币信托可以说是最接近比特币的 1:1 跟踪，而无需您自己直接在现货加密货币市场购买。

This 1:1 tracking makes the iShares Bitcoin Trust a huge improvement over the previous iteration of Bitcoin ETFs, which relied on financial derivatives (such as forwards and futures) to track the price of Bitcoin. While these earlier Bitcoin ETFs came close to tracking Bitcoin's price over short intervals, they were prone to significant tracking error over the long-term.

这种 1:1 的追踪使得 iShares Bitcoin Trust 比之前的比特币 ETF 有了巨大的进步，后者依靠金融衍生品（如远期和期货）来追踪比特币的价格。虽然这些早期的比特币 ETF 在短时间内接近追踪比特币的价格，但从长期来看，它们很容易出现严重的追踪错误。

Where does Bitcoin's price go from here?

比特币的价格将走向何方？

Given that the iShares Bitcoin Trust does an excellent job of tracking the price of Bitcoin, the obvious question becomes: How much higher can Bitcoin go from here? After all, if you're really intent on becoming a crypto millionaire, then you need the price of Bitcoin to soar as high as possible, right?

鉴于 iShares 比特币信托基金在跟踪比特币价格方面做得非常出色，显而易见的问题是：比特币还能上涨多少？毕竟，如果你真的想成为加密货币百万富翁，那么你需要比特币的价格尽可能飙升，对吗？

The good news is that, according to a growing number of analysts and investors, Bitcoin's future price could reach stratospheric heights. For example, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest thinks that the price of Bitcoin could climb as high as $1 million by 2030. And, in a bullish case, Bitcoin might even reach $3.8 million. She's basing her price forecasts on assumptions about Bitcoin's growing adoption as a key part of the modern financial system.

好消息是，根据越来越多的分析师和投资者的说法，比特币的未来价格可能会达到平流层的高度。例如，Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 认为，到 2030 年，比特币的价格可能会攀升至 100 万美元。而且，在看涨的情况下，比特币甚至可能达到 380 万美元。她的价格预测基于比特币作为现代金融体系关键组成部分日益普及的假设。

Image source: Getty Images.

图片来源：盖蒂图片社。

And, if you're feeling particularly bullish, consider the price prediction of Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy. He's now predicting that Bitcoin could soar as high as $49 million per coin by the year 2045. In a base case, he says, Bitcoin could hit $13 million per coin.

而且，如果您感觉特别乐观，请考虑 MicroStrategy 创始人兼执行主席 Michael Saylor 的价格预测。他现在预测，到 2045 年，比特币的每枚硬币可能会飙升至 4900 万美元。他表示，在基本情况下，每枚比特币的价格可能会达到 1300 万美元。

Moreover, as we know from Bitcoin's historical track record, it has proven to have had plenty of upside potential in the past. Just over a decade ago, Bitcoin was trading for $100. Today, it trades for close to $100,000. For much of the past decade, Bitcoin has been one of the top-performing assets in the world, far ahead of many other asset classes.

此外，正如我们从比特币的历史记录中了解到的那样，事实证明它在过去具有巨大的上涨潜力。就在十多年前，比特币的交易价格为 100 美元。如今，它的交易价格接近 100,000 美元。在过去十年的大部分时间里，比特币一直是世界上表现最好的资产之一，远远领先于许多其他资产类别。

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but it gives you a good idea of why future Bitcoin price forecasts are so bullish.

当然，过去的表现并不能保证未来的表现，但它让您很好地了解为什么未来的比特币价格预测如此乐观。

Can you turn $1,000 into $1 million?

你能把1000美元变成100万美元吗？

For the sake of argument, let's say that you have $1,000 that you're willing to invest into the iShares Bitcoin Trust. In order to become a crypto millionaire, you'd need to see a 1,000x return on your investment. To make the math easier, let's also assume that Bitcoin hits a price of $100,000 by the end of 2024.

为了方便讨论，假设您愿意投资 1,000 美元到 iShares 比特币信托基金。为了成为加密货币百万富翁，您需要看到 1,000 倍的投资回报。为了让计算变得更容易，我们还假设比特币的价格到 2024 年底将达到 10 万美元。

In order to attain that 1,000x return on your money, you'd need to see the price of Bitcoin hit... (drumroll, please)... $100 million. That's highly improbable, even given Michael Saylor's price predictions, which top out at $49 million per coin in the most bullish of all possible future scenarios.

为了获得 1,000 倍的资金回报，您需要看到比特币的价格达到……（请击鼓）……1 亿美元。即使考虑到 Michael Saylor 的价格预测（在所有可能的未来情景中最乐观的情况下，每枚代币的最高价格为 4900 万美元），这也是极不可能的。

So you have two options if you're really focused

所以如果你真的很专注的话你有两个选择