以太坊的崛起：高风险和更高的波动性

受美国近期监管动态的影响，以太坊目前处于交易者关注的最前沿。预期获批

The anticipation of the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has sparked a rally in the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

以太坊（加密货币：ETH）交易所交易基金（ETF）获得批准的预期引发了全球第二大加密货币的反弹。

Over the past few weeks, ETH’s price has witnessed a remarkable uptrend of more than 20%, pushing its value above multiple resistance levels. This surge has also coincided with speculative activities surrounding the potential for a similar success story to the January debut of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have accumulated more than $50 billion in assets.

过去几周，ETH 的价格出现了超过 20% 的显着上涨趋势，推动其价值突破多个阻力位。这一激增也与美国现货比特币 ETF 1 月份首次亮相类似的成功故事的可能性相关的投机活动同时发生，这些 ETF 已积累了超过 500 亿美元的资产。

As ETH continues to perform strongly, a recent Bloomberg report has uncovered a growing trend of substantial bets on the cryptocurrency’s future. Market analysts, such as Chris Weston from Pepperstone Group, assert that ETH’s current trajectory points towards further gains despite potential market pullbacks, suggesting a strong continuation of investor interest.

随着 ETH 继续表现强劲，彭博社最近的一份报告揭示了对加密货币未来的大量押注的增长趋势。 Pepperstone Group 的 Chris Weston 等市场分析师断言，尽管市场可能出现回调，但 ETH 目前的走势仍将进一步上涨，这表明投资者的兴趣将持续强劲。

This sentiment from Weston is mirrored in trading patterns observed on platforms like Deribit, where traders appear to be optimistic about ETH reaching new heights, potentially surpassing its previous record of $4,866 set in November 2021.

Weston 的这种情绪反映在 Deribit 等平台上观察到的交易模式中，交易者似乎对 ETH 达到新的高度持乐观态度，有可能超过 2021 年 11 月创下的 4,866 美元的历史记录。

Adding to the intrigue, Bloomberg’s analysis highlights the notable differences in volatility between ETH and Bitcoin, which underscore shifting market dynamics. The T3 Ether Volatility Index, a tool for forecasting expected price movements over the next 30 days, shows that Ethereum experiences larger fluctuations than Bitcoin.

更有趣的是，彭博社的分析强调了 ETH 和比特币之间波动性的显着差异，这凸显了市场动态的变化。 T3 以太波动率指数是预测未来 30 天内预期价格走势的工具，显示以太坊的波动比比特币更大。

Recent readings from this index show the widest gap in expected volatility between the two cryptocurrencies since the beginning of 2023, signaling that market speculators anticipate more pronounced movements in ETH’s price.

该指数的最新数据显示，两种加密货币之间的预期波动性存在自 2023 年初以来的最大差距，这表明市场投机者预计 ETH 价格将出现更明显的波动。

Moreover, institutional engagement, as measured by the activity in CME Ether futures, also suggests a cautiously growing interest from large-scale investors. Although this interest is still modest compared to Bitcoin, it reflects a wary but increasing acknowledgment of Ethereum’s market potential, especially with the pending launch of Ethereum spot ETFs.

此外，以芝商所以太坊期货活动衡量的机构参与度也表明，大型投资者的兴趣正在谨慎增长。尽管与比特币相比，这种兴趣仍然不大，但这反映出人们对以太坊市场潜力的谨慎但日益认识，尤其是在以太坊现货 ETF 即将推出的情况下。

However, Noelle Acheson, the author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” newsletter, cautions that the same institutions that will be expected to contribute heavily to the inflows into the Ether spot ETF upon its launch are showing less interest in the Bitcoin spot ETFs. This observation could lead to disappointing initial inflows into the ETH ETFs.

然而，《加密货币现在是宏观的》时事通讯的作者诺埃尔·艾奇逊 (Noelle Acheson) 警告说，预计在以太坊现货 ETF 推出后为资金流入做出重大贡献的机构，对比特币现货 ETF 的兴趣却越来越小。这一观察结果可能会导致 ETH ETF 的初始资金流入令人失望。

"The relatively low participation from the same institutions that will probably be expected to pour into the Ether spot ETF upon launch, suggests that the initial inflows could be disappointing."

“预计以太坊现货 ETF 推出后，同一机构的参与度相对较低，这表明最初的资金流入可能会令人失望。”

same for bitcoin ETFs, but to a lesser degree (maybe because they're already pouring into bitcoin futures…)https://t.co/0000000000

比特币 ETF 也是如此，但程度较小（可能是因为它们已经涌入比特币期货……）https://t.co/0000000000

— Noelle Achesonㅍㅍ (@noelle_acheson) May 23, 2024

— 诺埃尔·艾奇逊ㅍㅍ (@noelle_acheson) 2024 年 5 月 23 日

On the other hand, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas recently engaged in a discourse on the X platform, discussing the potential success of the newly approved U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs.

另一方面，彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 最近在 X 平台上发表了演讲，讨论了新批准的美国现货以太坊 ETF 的潜在成功。

In his discussion, Balchunas highlighted the challenges these spot ETFs may encounter in attracting older investors, specifically those within the age range of 60 to 80, who are often referred to as "baby boomers." He suggested that the complexity of Ethereum’s concept might hinder its acceptance among this demographic.

Balchunas 在讨论中强调了这些现货 ETF 在吸引老年投资者方面可能遇到的挑战，特别是那些年龄在 60 岁至 80 岁之间的投资者，他们通常被称为“婴儿潮一代”。他认为以太坊概念的复杂性可能会阻碍其在这一群体中的接受度。

"One of the challenges for Ether ETFs in penetrating the 60/40 Boomer world is distilling its purpose/value into an easy-to-understand sound bite a la “bitcoin is digital gold” Does a simple one-liner like that exist for ether? If so, what is it?"

“以太坊 ETF 在渗透 60/40 婴儿潮一代的世界中面临的挑战之一是将其目的/价值提炼成易于理解的原话，就像“比特币是数字黄金”一样，以太坊是否存在这样的简单说法？如果是的话，那是什么？”

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 24, 2024

- 埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (@EricBalchunas) 2024 年 5 月 24 日