以太坊会遇到麻烦吗？分析师警告外汇储备激增

以太坊是市值第二大的加密货币，最近几周一直承受着巨大的压力。随着其价格持续波动，分析师一直在观察其市场信号，以确定当前阶段是吸筹阶段还是派发阶段。

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been under significant pressure in recent weeks. As its price continues to fluctuate, analysts have been observing its market signals to determine whether the current phase is one of accumulation or distribution.

以太坊是市值第二大的加密货币，最近几周一直承受着巨大的压力。随着其价格持续波动，分析师一直在观察其市场信号，以确定当前阶段是吸筹阶段还是派发阶段。

According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Shayan, the Ethereum exchange reserve metric, which tracks the amount of ETH held in exchange wallets, is providing insights into this question.

根据 CryptoQuant 分析师 Shayan 最近的一项分析，追踪交易所钱包中持有的 ETH 数量的以太坊交易所储备指标为这个问题提供了见解。

What Does The Ethereum Exchange Reserve Currently Signals?

以太坊交易所储备目前发出什么信号？

Shayan disclosed in the analysis shared in a post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform that the Ethereum exchange reserve metric has shown a notable upward trend between June and August, indicating a distribution phase that has contributed to the ongoing bearish trend.

Shayan 在 CryptoQuant QuickTake 平台上的一篇文章中分享的分析中透露，以太坊交易所储备指标在 6 月至 8 月期间显示出显着的上升趋势，表明一个分配阶段导致了持续的看跌趋势。

This metric is particularly noteworthy given that coins held on exchanges are often considered ready for sale, which can lead to increased selling pressure.

鉴于交易所持有的代币通常被认为可供出售，因此该指标尤其值得注意，这可能会导致抛售压力增加。

According to Shayan, the recent “death cross” on Ethereum’s price chart, where the 100-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, has raised further concerns.

Shayan 表示，最近以太坊价格图表上的“死亡交叉”，即 100 日移动均线低于 200 日移动均线，引发了进一步的担忧。

Following this technical signal, the exchange reserve metric has risen sharply, suggesting that another distribution phase may be unfolding.

在这一技术信号之后，外汇储备指标大幅上升，表明另一个分配阶段可能正在展开。

The analyst noted that this increase in reserves on exchanges could point to a potential decrease in demand for Ethereum, which might lead to further price declines. However, Shayan noted that the state of the futures market, a critical factor in price determination, must also be analyzed before making “definitive conclusions.”

该分析师指出，交易所储备的增加可能表明对以太坊的需求可能会减少，这可能会导致价格进一步下跌。然而，沙扬指出，在做出“最终结论”之前，还必须对期货市场的状况进行分析，期货市场的状况是决定价格的关键因素。

Exchange Reserves Signal New Distribution Phase Amidst Death Cross Concerns

在死亡交叉担忧中，交易所储备标志着新的分配阶段

“Ethereum reserves on exchanges continue to grow, the likelihood of a decrease in demand—and consequently, a further price decline—also increases.” – By @ShayanBTC7

“交易所的以太坊储备持续增长，需求下降的可能性 - 从而导致价格进一步下跌 - 也增加了。” ——@ShayanBTC7

Link https://t.co/HKaeDBsss3 pic.twitter.com/K6mMDmtnBH

链接 https://t.co/HKaeDBsss3 pic.twitter.com/K6mMDmtnBH

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 2, 2024

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) 2024 年 9 月 2 日

Ethereum’s Price Action and Market Sentiment

以太坊的价格走势和市场情绪

Despite the concerning signals from the exchange reserve metric, Ethereum has managed to stage a modest recovery over the past day.

尽管外汇储备指标发出了令人担忧的信号，但以太坊在过去一天仍成功实现了温和复苏。

The cryptocurrency has seen a 2.2% increase, bringing its current trading price to $2,515 at the time of writing. However, this uptick does little to offset the 7% decline Ethereum has experienced over the past week.

截至撰写本文时，该加密货币上涨了 2.2%，当前交易价格达到 2,515 美元。然而，这种上涨几乎无法抵消以太坊在过去一周经历的 7% 的下跌。

Renowned crypto analyst CrediBull, commenting on Ethereum’s recent price action, emphasized that the situation is still evolving. He noted:

著名加密货币分析师 CrediBull 在评论以太坊最近的价格走势时强调，情况仍在不断发展。他指出：

Nothing has really changed on ETH here. We went a bit lower, but OI has simply decreased even more, funding is negative, and we are simply back at our local lows.

ETH 并没有发生任何真正的变化。我们的价格有所下降，但 OI 下降得更多，资金为负，我们只是回到了当地的低点。

CrediBull suggests that Ethereum might sweep the lows into local demand before forming a deviation and potentially moving higher.

CrediBull 认为，以太坊可能会在形成偏差并可能走高之前将低点扫入当地需求。

He also warned against overreacting to short-term volatility, stressing the importance of managing risk and sticking to plan if the fundamental market conditions haven’t significantly changed.

他还警告不要对短期波动反应过度，强调在市场基本状况没有显着变化的情况下管理风险和坚持计划的重要性。

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

使用 DALL-E 创建的特色图片，来自 TradingView 的图表