Ethereum (ETH) Primed For Macro Breakout as Confluence of Rare Monthly Chart Signals Emerge

In a recent macro-technical analysis, crypto strategist Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) highlighted a potentially pivotal moment for Ethereum (ETH) as several rare monthly chart signals, some not seen in years, could be setting the stage for durable altcoin outperformance.

In his analysis, Kevin focused on a specific setup in Ethereum that occurs when the price experiences a large demand candle, typically a green candlestick, following a period of correction. This candle signals a strong shift in market demand.

According to Kevin, Ethereum formed such a candle in May after nearly a year of sideways movement and five months of drawdown. Historically, these candles have kicked off significant uptrends. He provided examples of similar structures in 2016, 2018, and during the COVID-19 crash in 2020, all of which were followed by multi-month rallies.

"This may be the most textbook demand candle we've ever had," he stated. "The last time we saw something like this was before ETH ran for nearly a year with barely any major correction."

The candle analysis is further supported by the synchronized bullish turn in several technical indicators. The Market Cipher momentum wave has clipped into the oversold zone and printed a confirmed green dot buy signal.

Simultaneously, the VWAP, or volume-weighted average price, has crossed above the zero line, and money flow has started to trend upward.

"Let me tell you something: this is a big deal," Kevin emphasized.

On the other hand, the monthly RSI, currently at 51, has yet to reach the 70 level, which usually marks the onset of parabolic price action for ETH.

According to Kevin, "ETH has never even broken 70 this cycle. You haven't seen what's possible yet for Ethereum—or for altcoins in general. You've seen nothing yet."

He also highlighted the return of whale accumulation, measured through a proprietary "whale money flow" indicator, which shows a V-shaped bottom and turning point for ETH.

After selling positions for over a year, from March 2024 to May 2025, whale flows are now returning, indicating a renewed interest in ETH at higher price levels.

"We are now starting to see accumulation durably here," Kevin said. "You keep hearing that BlackRock is buying ETH, and I don't know if that's reflected in this indicator, but we are definitely seeing whale activity occur on the monthly time frame."

The analyst went further, showing that Ethereum's stock RSI on the monthly timeframe has not only bottomed out but is now rebounding sharply—a pattern that typically precedes long-duration uptrends.

"This is aggressive movement," Kevin explained, adding that for confirmation, the RSI still needs to cross the 20 level, but emphasized that the current shape of the rebound is stronger than in previous cycles.

Another key piece of the puzzle is Ethereum's dominance chart, which tracks ETH's market cap relative to the rest of the crypto space excluding Bitcoin.

Kevin pointed to a potential double bottom on the monthly chart and a newly confirmed MACD momentum shift, the first in over two years.

"That's two years and one month of downtrend finally reversing," he said.

Finally, the ETH/BTC pair is showing a near-identical structure to Ethereum's dominance chart, which Kevin believes highlights a critical confluence.

"Look at that—wow, that's funny—it looks the same. You find your major low right where you found it in 2020. The monthly indicators are all curling up."

However, Kevin remained cautious, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic conditions, particularly monetary policy, for confirming the bullish case.

"It's going to take some monetary policy shifting. We still need inflation to come in line. But the market is living four to six months ahead. If the market starts to sniff out that easing is coming, we'll see that reflected in asset prices before it happens."

Referencing cycle theory and historical post-halving performance, Kevin argued that ETH's recent relative strength fits both narratives.

"Typically, ETH and altcoins start to out-perform Bitcoin in the post-halving year. We're half-way through that window—and it looks like it's finally starting."

Looking ahead, he sees Ethereum as the "major key" that unlocks broad altcoin outperformance.

"ETH opens the door to soaking up market cap, which will then leak down into mid-caps and small-caps. Everything starts with ETH."

While urging patience, Kevin concluded with optimism.

"The monthly time-frame indicators have never been more historically on our side. I think we're on the verge of something really big."