以太坊（ETH）价格可能在未来“3-6个月”内下跌，到明年这个时候“可能会更高”——分析师

一位分析师表示，在以太坊现货交易所交易基金（ETF）最初的兴奋消退之后，以太坊的价格可能会下跌，特别是如果其供应继续以目前的速度增长的话。

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has warned that Ethereum's price could decline in the coming months due to increasing supply and the potential fading of excitement surrounding spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）警告称，由于供应增加以及围绕现货以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF）的兴奋可能消退，以太坊的价格可能在未来几个月下跌。

In a recent X post on July 19, Cowen pointed out that Ethereum's supply has been increasing at a rate of approximately 60,000 ETH per month since April. If this trend continues, Cowen noted that Ethereum's supply will return to the levels seen at the time of The Merge by December.

Cowen 在最近 7 月 19 日的 X 帖子中指出，自 4 月份以来，以太坊的供应量一直以每月约 60,000 ETH 的速度增加。 Cowen 指出，如果这种趋势持续下去，以太坊的供应量将在 12 月之前恢复到合并时的水平。

"If the supply of ETH keeps increasing by ~60k/month like it has been since April, then by Dec the supply will be back to what it was at the merge," stated the crypto trader and founder of Into The Cryptoverse.

这位加密货币交易员兼 Into The Cryptoverse 创始人表示：“如果 ETH 的供应量像 4 月份以来那样继续以每月 6 万左右的速度增长，那么到 12 月，供应量将恢复到合并时的水平。”

Post-Merge, Ethereum transitioned to a deflationary state, reducing its supply by about 455,000 ETH by April 2024. However, since then, the supply has increased by about 150,000 ETH.

合并后，以太坊过渡到通缩状态，到 2024 年 4 月，其供应量减少了约 455,000 ETH。然而，自那以后，供应量增加了约 150,000 ETH。

According to Cowen, if the current trend continues, Ethereum's supply will increase to the levels seen before The Merge.

Cowen 表示，如果目前的趋势持续下去，以太坊的供应量将增加到合并之前的水平。

"If the supply of ETH keeps increasing at 60,000 ETH per month, then we will see the supply revert to what it was back at the merge," reiterated Cowen.

Cowen 重申：“如果 ETH 的供应量继续以每月 60,000 ETH 的速度增长，那么我们将看到供应量恢复到合并时的水平。”

He also added, "If it follows 2016, then ETH/BTC final capitulation will not start until September 2024, which would be enough time for the novelty of the spot ETF relative to BTC to potentially wear off."

他还补充道，“如果是在 2016 年之后，那么 ETH/BTC 的最终投降要到 2024 年 9 月才会开始，这足以让现货 ETF 相对于 BTC 的新鲜感逐渐消失。”

Cowen predicts that Ether's price might drop within the next "3-6 months," despite his belief that in 1.5 years, the price will "likely be higher" than its current value.

Cowen 预测以太坊的价格可能会在未来“3-6 个月”内下跌，尽管他相信 1.5 年内价格将“可能高于”当前价值。

At the time of publication, Ether is trading at $3,507, according to CoinMarketCap.

根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，截至本文发布时，以太币的交易价格为 3,507 美元。

Onchain analyst Leon Waidmann recently highlighted a "supply crisis" for Ethereum, noting that exchange balances have dropped to 10.2% while 39.3% of ETH is locked in smart contracts.

Onchain 分析师 Leon Waidmann 最近强调了以太坊的“供应危机”，指出交易所余额已降至 10.2%，而 39.3% 的 ETH 被锁定在智能合约中。

“Most investors don’t realize how tight the ETH supply side is,” stated Waidmann in a July 16 X post.

“大多数投资者没有意识到 ETH 供应面有多紧张，”Waidmann 在 7 月 16 日的帖子中表示。

Meanwhile, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) announced on July 19 that five spot Ethereum ETFs will start trading on July 23, subject to regulatory approval.

与此同时，芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）于 7 月 19 日宣布，五只现货以太坊 ETF 将于 7 月 23 日开始交易，尚待监管部门批准。

These include the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF, Fidelity Ethereum Fund, Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF, VanEck Ethereum ETF, and Franklin Ethereum ETF.

其中包括 21Shares 核心以太坊 ETF、富达以太坊基金、Invesco Galaxy 以太坊 ETF、VanEck 以太坊 ETF 和 Franklin 以太坊 ETF。

On May 23, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved rule changes to allow the listing of several spot Ether ETFs.

5 月 23 日，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准了规则变更，允许多个现货以太 ETF 上市。

To submit a crypto press release (PR), send an email to sales@cryptointelligence.co.uk.

要提交加密货币新闻稿 (PR)，请发送电子邮件至 sales@cryptointelligence.co.uk。