以太坊 (ETH) ETF 今年会获得批准吗？

在以太坊 ETF 现货获批的猜测推动下，5 月 20 日，以太坊 (ETH) 飙升至 3,700 美元的两个月高点，涨幅超过 18%。

Ethereum (ETH) price soared to a two-month high on May 20, rising over 18%. The surge comes amid speculation about a spot Ethereum ETF approval. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas increased the approval odds from 25% to 75%, citing political pressure on the U.S. SEC and the SEC’s previously limited engagement with ETF applicants.

5月20日，以太坊（ETH）价格飙升至两个月高位，涨幅超过18%。以太坊 ETF 现货获批的猜测引发了这一飙升。彭博社分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 将批准几率从 25% 提高到 75%，理由是美国 SEC 面临政治压力以及 SEC 此前与 ETF 申请人的接触有限。

So do we see ETH ETF approval this year? Let’s find out the possibilities.

那么今年 ETH ETF 会获得批准吗？让我们找出可能性。

SEC’s Stance and Market Reactions

SEC 的立场和市场反应

Balchunas revealed that the SEC is encouraging encouraging exchanges like the NYSE and Nasdaq to update their ETF filings, although there’s no official confirmation. Meanwhile, Nate Geraci noted that the SEC’s decision on the ETF is still pending and may delay VanEck’s Ethereum spot ETF decision beyond the May 23 deadline. This allows the SEC to review the complexities and risks of Proof-of-Stake (PoS) cryptocurrencies.

Balchunas 透露，美国证券交易委员会正在鼓励纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克等交易所更新其 ETF 备案文件，但尚未得到官方证实。与此同时，Nate Geraci 指出，SEC 对 ETF 的决定仍悬而未决，并且可能会将 VanEck 的以太坊现货 ETF 决定推迟到 5 月 23 日截止日期之后。这使得 SEC 能够审查权益证明 (PoS) 加密货币的复杂性和风险。

Analyst Updating ETH ETF Predictions

分析师更新 ETH ETF 预测

In line with the SEC, analysts Seyffart and Balchunas updated their predictions about the SEC’s decision on spot Ether ETFs, suggesting the SEC might approve them instead of denying them as previously expected. This shift is based on recent SEC filings, statements from SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and insider reports indicating political pressure on Democrats to support crypto. Seyffart noted the issue’s growing political nature and hinted at more related filings soon, highlighting the potentially significant impact on the crypto community if the approval happens.

与 SEC 一致，分析师 Seyffart 和 Balchunas 更新了他们对 SEC 对现货以太 ETF 决定的预测，表明 SEC 可能会批准它们，而不是像之前预期的那样拒绝它们。这一转变是基于最近的 SEC 文件、SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 的声明以及表明民主党面临支持加密货币的政治压力的内部报告。 Seyffart 指出该问题的政治性质日益严重，并暗示很快将提交更多相关文件，并强调如果获得批准，可能会对加密货币社区产生重大影响。

Impact on ETH Options Expiry

对 ETH 期权到期的影响

On the other hand, rumors about the Ethereum ETF have heavily influenced the upcoming $3 billion ETH options expiry. On Deribit, the Ether option’s open interest for May 24 is $867 million; for May 31, it’s $3.22 billion, contrasting with CME’s and OKX’s open interest. Deribit’s call-to-put ratio shows a preference for call options, indicating bullish sentiment.

另一方面，有关以太坊 ETF 的传言严重影响了即将到期的 30 亿美元 ETH 期权。在 Deribit 上，5 月 24 日的以太坊期权未平仓合约为 8.67 亿美元；截至 5 月 31 日，该数字为 32.2 亿美元，与 CME 和 OKX 的未平仓合约形成鲜明对比。 Deribit 的看涨期权与看跌期权比率显示出对看涨期权的偏好，表明看涨情绪。

If ETH stays above $3,600 by May 24, only $440k in put options will be exercised, benefiting call option holders with $397 million in open interest. Similarly, for May 31, 97% of put options are priced at $3,600 or lower, becoming irrelevant if ETH trades above this level. The net open interest could favor call options by $1.92 billion if ETH reaches $4,550, or by $1.44 billion at $4,050.

如果到 5 月 24 日 ETH 保持在 3,600 美元以上，则只有 44 万美元的看跌期权将被行使，看涨期权持有者将受益于 3.97 亿美元的未平仓合约。同样，到 5 月 31 日，97% 的看跌期权定价为 3,600 美元或更低，如果 ETH 交易高于该水平，则变得无关紧要。如果 ETH 达到 4,550 美元，净未平仓合约可能有利于看涨期权 19.2 亿美元，如果 ETH 达到 4,050 美元，则净未平仓合约可能有利于看涨期权 14.4 亿美元。

Bullish Momentum and Market Strategies

看涨势头和市场策略

In short, Ether’s unexpected price increase has surprised option traders, benefiting bullish strategies. These profits will likely be reinvested, keeping ETH’s price momentum positive after the expiry. Traders might use complex strategies with different expiry dates to optimize their positions, though the exact impact is hard to predict.

简而言之，以太币的意外价格上涨令期权交易者感到惊讶，从而有利于看涨策略。这些利润可能会进行再投资，从而在到期后保持 ETH 的价格势头。交易者可能会使用具有不同到期日的复杂策略来优化其头寸，但确切的影响很难预测。

In addition, United States lawmakers are considering pro-crypto bills like the FIT21 Act and the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act. Democrat leaders not opposing these bills signals positive support for the crypto industry. Furthermore, industry stakeholders are backing the FIT21 Act, advocating for its passage to spur innovation and growth in the crypto sector.

此外，美国立法者正在考虑《FIT21 法案》和《CBDC 反监视州法案》等支持加密货币的法案。民主党领导人不反对这些法案表明对加密行业的积极支持。此外，行业利益相关者也支持 FIT21 法案，主张通过该法案以刺激加密行业的创新和增长。