以太坊ETF会触发替代季节吗？

随着美国现货以太坊 [ETH] ETF 开始交易，山寨币市场本周可能会触及拐点。作为最大的山寨币，ETH 的表现可能

The altcoin market could see a turning point this week with the commencement of trading for US spot Ethereum [ETH] ETFs. Being the largest altcoin, ETH's performance could set the tone for the altcoin sector.

随着美国现货以太坊 [ETH] ETF 交易的开始，山寨币市场本周可能会出现转折点。作为最大的山寨币，ETH 的表现可能会为山寨币行业定下基调。

However, according to renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, the altcoin season might be delayed due to a potential surge in Bitcoin [BTC] dominance ahead of the likely Fed rate cut in September.

然而，根据著名加密货币分析师 Benjamin Cowen 的说法，由于在 9 月份美联储可能降息之前，比特币 [BTC] 的主导地位可能会激增，因此山寨币季节可能会被推迟。

Cowen highlighted the similarities between the current BTC dominance and the pattern observed in 2019, two months before the Fed cut rates and the failure of alts to catch up.

Cowen 强调了当前 BTC 的主导地位与 2019 年观察到的模式之间的相似之处，即美联储降息前两个月，而另类货币未能迎头赶上。

“BTC also had an explosive move back then too, and ALTs could just not keep up. Similar candle today, potentially 2 months before the 1st rate cut.”

“当时 BTC 也出现了爆炸性的走势，而 ALT 却跟不上。今天类似的蜡烛，可能是在第一次降息前两个月。”

Source: X/Benjamin Cowen

资料来源：X/本杰明·考恩

Will Ethereum ETF trigger Alt season?

以太坊ETF会引发替代季节吗？

This could come as disheartening news for crypto investors who were expecting some respite from the altcoin market, which saw massive drawdowns in June.

对于加密货币投资者来说，这可能是一个令人沮丧的消息，他们原本期待山寨币市场在 6 月份出现大幅下跌，但会得到一些喘息的机会。

Moreover, the Altcoin Season Index indicator suggested that the alt season was not in just yet, at press time.

此外，截至发稿时，山寨币季节指数指标表明山寨币季节尚未到来。

Source: Blockchain Center

来源：区块链中心

According to the indicator, the first half of 2024 has been a Bitcoin season. And if Cowen's projections are to be believed, this pattern could continue.

该指标显示，2024年上半年是比特币旺季。如果考恩的预测可信，这种模式可能会持续下去。

However, BTC Dominance is only one way to gauge the Altcoin season. According to some analysts, including the founders of Glassnode, another way is the ETH/BTC ratio.

然而，比特币的主导地位只是衡量山寨币季节的一种方法。根据包括 Glassnode 创始人在内的一些分析师的说法，另一种方法是 ETH/BTC 比率。

ETH/BTC tracks ETH performance relative to BTC. According to Glassnode founders, who go by the username Negentropic on X, the ratio was tipped to rip off and trigger altcoin season if the US spot ETH ETF begins trading.

ETH/BTC 追踪 ETH 相对于 BTC 的表现。 Glassnode 创始人（X 上的用户名为 Negentropic）表示，如果美国现货 ETH ETF 开始交易，该比率将被拉低并引发山寨币季节。

The products are set to launch and begin trading this week.

这些产品将于本周推出并开始交易。

AMBCrypto’s analysis of the ETH/BTC ratio showed that it did surge after the partial approval of ETH ETF in May. Nevertheless, the ratio was yet to break out of its downtrend, as denoted by the descending channel (white).

AMBCrypto 对 ETH/BTC 比率的分析显示，在 5 月份 ETH ETF 部分获批后，该比率确实出现飙升。然而，该比率尚未突破下降趋势，如下降通道（白色）所示。

Source: ETH/BTC, TradingView

资料来源：ETH/BTC，TradingView

It remains to be seen how the ETH/BTC will react and whether it could trigger the altcoin season. So, the BTC Dominance and ETH/BTC ratio were key fronts to track and gauge the possible impact on altcoins.

ETH/BTC 将如何反应以及是否会引发山寨币季节还有待观察。因此，BTC 主导地位和 ETH/BTC 比率是跟踪和评估对山寨币可能产生的影响的关键前沿。