以太坊会突破 5000 美元吗？ Cryptoquant 强调关键指标

在现货交易所交易基金（ETF）数据和对区块链活动的洞察的推动下，以太坊（ETH）正迎来一波有利趋势。

Cryptoquant analysts have identified several key indicators that could propel ethereum (ETH) towards a breakout above the $5,000 mark.

Cryptoquant 分析师已经确定了几个可能推动以太坊 (ETH) 突破 5,000 美元大关的关键指标。

According to the firm’s December 2024 analysis, data from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and insights into blockchain activity suggest that ether is experiencing a wave of favorable trends.

根据该公司 2024 年 12 月的分析，来自现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的数据和对区块链活动的洞察表明，以太坊正在经历一波有利的趋势。

As noted by Cryptoquant, holdings in spot ether ETFs, which launched in the United States in July 2024, have seen a significant uptick, climbing from 3.095 million ETH to a peak of 3.41 million ETH. This increase in holdings indicates growing investor interest, especially considering that holdings hit a low of 2.716 million ETH in September 2024, according to the report.

正如 Cryptoquant 指出的那样，2024 年 7 月在美国推出的现货以太坊 ETF 的持有量大幅增加，从 309.5 万 ETH 攀升至 341 万 ETH 的峰值。报告称，持有量的增加表明投资者的兴趣不断增长，特别是考虑到持有量在 2024 年 9 月触及 271.6 万 ETH 的低点。

Meanwhile, on the supply side, a different narrative is unfolding. Ethereum’s total supply has reached 120.44 million, marking the highest level since April 2023. However, a rise in ETH burned through transaction fees is creating some downward pressure on the supply.

与此同时，在供应方面，一种不同的叙述正在展开。以太坊的总供应量已达到 1.2044 亿，这是自 2023 年 4 月以来的最高水平。然而，交易费用消耗的 ETH 的增加正在对供应量造成一定的下行压力。

As highlighted by Cryptoquant researchers, between August and December 2024, the daily ETH burn rate has surged from 80 to 2,700. This increased burn rate is helping to rein in supply growth, even as Ethereum’s usage continues to increase.

正如 Cryptoquant 研究人员强调的那样，2024 年 8 月至 12 月期间，每日 ETH 销毁率从 80 个飙升至 2,700 个。尽管以太坊的使用量持续增加，但燃烧率的增加有助于抑制供应增长。

“The total supply of ETH has reached 120.44 million, its highest level since April 2023,” the report explains. “However, the pace of supply growth has slowed in recent months as the amount of ETH burned via fees has increased since September, exerting some deflationary pressure on ETH.”

报告解释称：“ETH 的总供应量已达到 1.2044 亿，这是自 2023 年 4 月以来的最高水平。” “然而，由于自 9 月份以来通过费用销毁的 ETH 数量有所增加，近几个月供应增长速度有所放缓，对 ETH 造成了一定的通货紧缩压力。”

The study also points out that Ethereum’s blockchain has seen a lot of activity recently. Average daily transactions in 2024 have ranged from 6.5-7.5 million, up from 5 million in 2023. Contract calls, which indicate onchain engagement, have also increased to 6-7 million daily.

研究还指出，以太坊的区块链最近出现了很多活动。 2024 年的日均交易量为 650 万至 750 万笔，高于 2023 年的 500 万笔。表明链上参与度的合约调用也增加至每日 6-700 万笔。

Cryptoquant analysts attribute this spike in activity to the broader adoption of decentralized applications, which also contributes to the deflationary pressure that could support ether’s value.

Cryptoquant 分析师将这种活动激增归因于去中心化应用程序的更广泛采用，这也加剧了可能支持以太坊价值的通货紧缩压力。

“Higher network activity on Ethereum signifies increased usage and demand for the network’s capabilities, reflecting growing adoption of decentralized applications,” the report notes. “Moreover, it leads to greater ETH burned via transaction fees, which can create deflationary pressure on the total ETH supply, as the burn rate can outpace issuance during periods of high activity.”

报告指出：“以太坊上网络活动的增加意味着对网络功能的使用和需求的增加，反映出去中心化应用程序的采用不断增加。” “此外，它会导致更多的 ETH 通过交易费用被销毁，这可能会对 ETH 总供应量造成通货紧缩压力，因为在活跃时期，销毁率可能超过发行量。”

Furthermore, Cryptoquant also touches on ether’s realized price, a metric that reflects the average cost at which ETH is held. This figure currently caps ether’s potential price at $5,200 per unit, which aligns with the valuation ceilings encountered during the 2021 bull market.

此外，Cryptoquant 还涉及以太币的已实现价格，该指标反映了持有 ETH 的平均成本。目前，这一数字将以太坊的潜在价格限制在每单位 5,200 美元，这与 2021 年牛市期间遇到的估值上限相符。

In light of these observations, and considering the challenges that still exist, Cryptoquant analysts emphasize the crucial role of sustained interest and positive market sentiment in helping ether reach the projected price milestone.

根据这些观察结果，并考虑到仍然存在的挑战，Cryptoquant 分析师强调了持续的兴趣和积极的市场情绪在帮助以太币达到预计价格里程碑方面的关键作用。

Their findings highlight ETH’s evolving role at the intersection of financial innovation and blockchain technology.

他们的发现凸显了 ETH 在金融创新和区块链技术交叉领域不断发展的作用。