Galaxy（ETH）现货 ETF 前五个月可能会出现 5B 美元的净流入

报告称，由于大量 ETH 总供应量被锁定，以太坊对 ETF 流入的价格比比特币更敏感。

(CoinDesk) – Ether spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), once approved for trading, could see $1 billion of net inflows a month, Galaxy (GLXY) Research said in a report on Wednesday.

(CoinDesk) – Galaxy (GLXY) Research 在周三的一份报告中表示，以太坊现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 一旦获准交易，每月可能会出现 10 亿美元的净流入。

“We expect the net inflows into ETH ETFs to be 20-50% of the net inflows into BTC ETFs over the first five months, with 30% as our target, implying $1 billion/month of net inflows,” analyst Charles Yu wrote.

分析师 Charles Yu 写道：“我们预计前 5 个月，ETH ETF 的净流入量将占 BTC ETF 净流入量的 20-50%，我们的目标是 30%，这意味着每月净流入 10 亿美元。”

Ether ETFs are finally closing in on being available for U.S. traders after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Chapter 44 applications from several applicants last month. The regulator must also sign off on their S-1 filings before the products are cleared to trade. Spot bitcoin ETFs launched in the U.S. in January.

在美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 上个月批准了几位申请人的第 44 章申请后，以太坊 ETF 终于即将向美国交易者开放。在产品获准交易之前，监管机构还必须签署 S-1 文件。现货比特币 ETF 于 1 月份在美国推出。

Like the bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs, the new demand for the ether versions will come from independent investment advisors or broker/dealer platforms, the report said.

报告称，与比特币 (BTC) 现货 ETF 一样，对以太坊版本的新需求将来自独立投资顾问或经纪商/交易商平台。

However, ether will be more price sensitive to ETF inflows than bitcoin due to the large amount of ETH total supply that is locked up in staking, bridges, smart contracts and the lower amount held on centralized exchanges, Galaxy said.

然而，Galaxy 表示，由于大量 ETH 总供应量被锁定在质押、桥梁、智能合约中，并且集中交易所持有的数量较少，因此以太坊对 ETF 流入的价格敏感度高于比特币。

Galaxy cautioned that spot ether ETF demand may be limited due to the lack of staking rewards.

Galaxy 警告称，由于缺乏质押奖励，现货以太 ETF 的需求可能会受到限制。

Outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) will also likely be a drag on ether ETF inflows, and Galaxy estimates that these negative flows could be about 319,000 ETH per month or $1.1 billion. Still, due to the smaller percentage of ether held in these trusts the “ETHE ETF conversion will be a relatively smaller drag on ETH price relative than the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) conversion.”

灰度以太坊信托 (ETHE) 的资金流出也可能会拖累以太坊 ETF 的流入，Galaxy 估计这些负流量可能约为每月 319,000 ETH 或 11 亿美元。尽管如此，由于这些信托中持有的以太币比例较小，“相对于灰度比特币信托 (GBTC) 转换，ETHE ETF 转换对 ETH 价格的拖累相对较小。”

Unlike GBTC, ETHE is not faced with forced selling due to bankruptcy from the likes of 3AC and Genesis, which supports the notion that ether will see less selling pressure related to Grayscale trusts than bitcoin, the report added.

报告补充说，与 GBTC 不同，ETHE 并未因 3AC 和 Genesis 等公司的破产而面临强制抛售，这支持了这样一种观点，即与灰度信托相关的以太坊抛售压力将小于比特币。

The SEC could approve spot ether ETFs as soon as July 4, according to a Reuters report on Thursday.

据路透社周四报道，美国证券交易委员会最早可能于 7 月 4 日批准现货以太坊 ETF。