Dogecoin（Doge）价格崩溃即将来临？

在5月11日的盘中高潮为0.259美元之前，Dogecoin在一个月的盘中高潮之后，损失了高度，然后势头破裂。

Dogecoin price is losing altitude after a month-long advance that climaxed at an intraday high of $0.259 on May 11 saw momentum crack. The memecoin is changing hands near $0.228 today, capitalising the network at roughly $34 billion and leaving it 69$ below its 2021 peak.

在5月11日的赛盘高潮时，Dogecoin的价格在一个月的盘中高潮中降到了一个月的高潮，在5月11日锯动量裂缝上达到了高度。 Memecoin今天将易手易手付费为0.228美元，使该网络的资本约为340亿美元，并使其低于2021年的峰值69美元。

From a purely statistical angle, the retreat is modest: Dogecoin is still up about 35% from the early-May floor at $0.164, yet the pattern of lower highs that has emerged since mid-month has sharpened traders’ focus on whether the token’s April-to-May impulse was corrective rather than impulsive.

从纯粹的统计角度来看，撤退是适度的：Dogecoin仍然比五月早期的地板上涨约35％，但自一月中旬以来已经出现的较低高点的模式使交易者对代币的四月到达 - 至关重要是否纠正了，而不是冲动而不是冲动。

Dogecoin Price Crash Incoming?

Dogecoin价格崩溃即将来临？

Technical analyst More Crypto Online argues in his latest YouTube briefing that the structure of this advance "rallied in three waves like many other crypto charts into the Friday swing high," lacked the five-wave punch normally required to sustain upside continuation, and has already reversed into what looks like "a micro five-wave move down."

技术分析师More Crypto Online在他的最新YouTube简报中说，这一进步的结构“像许多其他许多加密图表一样进入了星期五的秋千高中，“在三波浪潮中集会”，缺少通常需要维持上升延续所需的五波拳，并且已经逆转了像“微型五波浪”下降的外观。”

The Elliottician stated: "Doge rallied in three waves like many other crypto charts into the Friday swing high," he told viewers at the top of the clip, stressing that the advance from the April 26 trough "was just not convincing." The essence of his argument is that Dogecoin’s leap from $0.164 to the May 11 intraday peak at $0.259 never produced the five-wave structure that Elliott Wave theory associates with trend-sustaining moves.

这位埃利奥特尼亚人说：“像其他许多加密货币排列到星期五的秋千高点一样，总督在三波浪潮中集会。”他的论点的本质是，Dogecoin从0.164美元到5月11日的盘中峰的飞跃从未产生埃利奥特波浪理论与趋势维持的动作相关的五波结构。

Instead, price action has already begun what he counts as a "micro five-wave move down," thereby signalling that the April–May rise likely formed only the B-wave of a larger A-B-C correction. "As soon as the price breaks below the red dotted line at $0.21, the scenario for a larger pullback in the yellow count becomes confirmed," he said, adding that nothing on the chart currently invalidates that view.

取而代之的是，价格行动已经开始算作“微型五波往下移动”，从而表明四月 - 可能仅形成了较大的ABC校正的B波。他说：“一旦价格下出红色虚线的价格为0.21美元，在黄色计数中更大的回调的情况就得到了确认。”

The “yellow” scenario envisages an extended C-wave unfolding in five sub-waves and targeting the 38.2 %–78.6 % Fibonacci retracement cluster derived from the April rally. In plain numbers, that translates to $0.199–0.183 in the coming sessions.

“黄色”场景设想了一个延长的C波在五个子波中展开，并以38.2％–78.6％的斐波那契回溯集群为目标。在即将到来的会议中，这简单地说，这意味着$ 0.199-0.183。

“Testing $0.19.9 to $0.183 cents over the coming sessions seems like quite a probable outcome,” More Crypto Online said. “We already have a five-wave decline from yesterday’s high, so we have to be ready for potentially just corrective rallies and then a sharp decline in wave three.”

More Crypto Online说：“在即将到来的会议上，测试$ 0.19.9至$ 0.183美分似乎是一个可能的结果。” “我们已经从昨天的高点下降了五波，因此我们必须为潜在的纠正式集会做好准备，然后第三波急剧下降。”

That roadmap leaves room for a brief recovery wave—he calls it wave 2 of C—to probe initial resistance at $0.23.3 to $0.24.7. Yet the analyst cautioned that any bounce should remain "only corrective"; a decisive hourly close above $0.247 cents would be needed to resurrect the bullish "orange" count, which allows for one final extension of the previous advance.

该路线图留出了短暂的恢复浪潮的空间（他称其为C的2波），以探测初始阻力为0.23.3美元至0.24.7美元。然而，分析师警告说，任何弹跳都应保持“仅纠正”。需要每小时的果断距离超过$ 0.247，以复活看涨的“橙色”计数，这允许对先前的进步进行最后的延长。

“Any decisive break above $0.247 cents might mean we’re already in the extension to the upside,” he acknowledged, though he quickly added that such an outcome "would again be invalidated with a break below the dotted red line."

他承认：“任何决定性的休息时间都超过0.247美分，可能意味着我们已经处于上升空间的范围。”

Macro context is doing Dogecoin no favours. With Treasury yields pushing toward new quarterly highs and Fitcoin dominance creeping up, liquidity has drained from high-beta altcoins. Even January’s debut of the Grayscale Dogecoin Trust, which helped funnel institutional money into the asset earlier this year, has not arrested the rotation out of fringe tokens during May’s risk-off stretch.

宏观上下文不喜欢狗狗。随着财政部的产量，推动了新的季度高点，而Fitcoin优势越来越大，因此流动性从高β山端销售中排出。即使在一月份的首次亮相灰dogecoin信托基金会，该信托公司在今年早些时候将机构资金汇入了资产，但在5月的冒险范围内并未将轮换从边缘代币中撤出。

From a market-structure standpoint, the token’s immediate fate boils down to whether bulls can defend the $0.21 pivot called out in the analysis. A daily close beneath that threshold would give bears licence to press toward $0.19, while a break of the $0.247-cent barrier is the only development the analyst concedes could "reduce the potential for that decline."

从市场结构的角度来看，令牌的直接命运归结为公牛是否可以捍卫分析中征收的0.21美元的枢纽。每天接近该门槛将授予熊许可证，以驶向0.19美元，而休息0.247美分的障碍是该分析师承认的唯一“减少这种下降的潜力”的发展。

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.228.

发稿时，Doge的交易价格为0.228美元。