解码VIX：投资者的情绪，市场波动和保护成本

导航Vix景观：平衡潜在的收益与对冲市场波动的成本。投资者为安心付出了太多吗？

Ever feel like Wall Street's speaking a different language? Let's break down the VIX, investor behavior, and those pesky costs eating into your returns. Is chasing volatility worth it?

是否曾经感觉到华尔街说的另一种语言？让我们分解VIX，投资者的行为以及那些讨厌的成本消耗到您的回报中。追逐波动值得吗？

The VIX Surge: Fear or Foresight?

VIX激增：恐惧还是远见？

We've seen a surge in funds tied to the VIX (Cboe Volatility Index), crossing the $1 billion mark this year. Investors, fresh off a record rally, are bracing for potential turbulence and piling into exchange-traded products (ETPs) that track VIX futures. The idea is simple: if stocks tank, volatility will spike, and these products will pay out. Think of it as buying insurance for your portfolio. But is this insurance overpriced?

我们已经看到与VIX（CBOE波动性指数）相关的资金激增，今年超过了10亿美元的大关。投资者崭露头角的集会，正在为潜在的动荡而构成追踪Vix Futures的交易所交易产品（ETP）。这个想法很简单：如果库存储罐，波动率将飙升，这些产品将支付。可以将其视为为您的投资组合购买保险。但是这款保险价格过高吗？

The 'Chainsaw' Effect: Understanding the Costs

“电锯”效果：了解成本

Here's the catch: waiting for that moment of market chaos can be expensive. These VIX-linked funds come with built-in costs that can erode returns. Bloomberg Intelligence's Eric Balchunas aptly describes them as “a chainsaw — very effective at certain jobs, but it can cut your arm off.” He's talking about how these funds can bleed money when future market swings are expected to be bigger than what's happening right now.

这是捕获：等待市场混乱的时刻可能很昂贵。这些与VIX连接的资金具有内置成本，可以侵蚀回报。彭博情报局的埃里克·巴尔库纳斯（Eric Balchunas）恰当地将它们描述为“电锯 - 在某些工作方面非常有效，但可以切断您的手臂。”他谈论的是，当预计将来的市场波动比现在发生的事情要大时，这些资金如何流血。

Timing is everything. A well-timed buy and sell around a specific event (like, say, sweeping US tariffs) can yield impressive returns. But holding these funds for the long haul? Ouch. We're talking potential losses of 78% in a year. And yet, money keeps flowing in. VXX is down 32% but still boasts $1 billion in assets, with a whopping 312% net inflow. Investors keep adding to their VIX holdings, even as the costs mount. Why?

时机就是一切。围绕特定活动（例如，全面的美国关税）进行良好的买卖可能会产生令人印象深刻的回报。但是要长时间持有这些资金？哎哟。我们正在谈论一年中78％的潜在损失。然而，金钱不断流入。VXX下跌了32％，但仍然拥有10亿美元的资产，净流入量高达312％。即使成本支付，投资者也会不断增加其VIX持有量。为什么？

Why Investors are Still Pouring Money Into VIX Products

为什么投资者仍在向VIX产品投入资金

Michael Thompson at Little Harbor Advisors puts it this way: “these can increase in price pretty dramatically, almost like an option but without an expiration date.” These vehicles offer a hedge for stock owners, as the VIX typically rises when the S&P 500 falls. Retail traders, in particular, seem to be looking for cautious, protective moves.

Little Harbour Advisors的Michael Thompson这样说：“这些价格可能会大大提高，几乎就像一个选择一样，但没有到期日期。”这些车辆为股东提供了树篱，因为VIX通常在500标准普尔跌倒时上升。尤其是零售商人似乎正在寻找谨慎，保护性的举动。

The Contango Conundrum: How Rolling Contracts Hurt

Contango难题：滚动合同如何受伤

But this protection comes at a price. UVIX, for example, charges an expense ratio of 2.8%. These funds hold VIX futures expiring in different months and roll their contracts daily, selling the expiring contract and buying the next one. When October trades below November (a situation called contango), the fund is essentially selling low and buying high, draining cash. This rolling problem isn't new; it's happened before with other commodities, like oil.

但是这种保护是有代价的。例如，UVIX的费用比率为2.8％。这些基金持有Vix期货在不同月份到期，每天卷起合同，出售到期的合同并购买下一份合同。当十月交易11月以下（一种称为Contango的情况）时，该基金本质上是低价销售，购买高现金。这个滚动问题并不是什么新鲜事。这是在其他商品（例如石油）之前发生的。

VIX Curve Strategies: A Hedge Fund Playground

VIX曲线策略：对冲基金游乐场

The steep VIX futures curve, with its contango, presents both opportunities and risks. Strategists at Societe Generale SA have suggested trades to exploit this discount, such as selling the near-term VIX future and buying the next month. However, a sharp equity selloff could invert the curve and wipe out those gains.

陡峭的VIX期货曲线及其Contango既带来了机会和风险。 Societe Generale SA的策略师建议交易来利用这种折扣，例如出售近期VIX未来并在下个月购买。但是，急剧的公平抛售可以颠倒曲线并消除这些收益。

The Cost of Peace of Mind

安心的成本

Ultimately, some investors see these losses as the cost of protection against a market downturn. Hedge funds also use these products for quick, tactical trades. The question is: are you paying too much for that peace of mind? Are there more cost-effective ways to hedge your portfolio?

最终，一些投资者将这些损失视为针对市场低迷的保护成本。对冲基金还将这些产品用于快速，战术交易。问题是：您是否为这种安心付出了太多？是否有更多具有成本效益的方式来对冲您的投资组合？

The AI Angle: Token Costs and Computing Power

AI角度：令牌成本和计算能力

Speaking of costs, another area of concern for investors is token costs, especially when scaling AI applications. High token costs have become a core pain point for many companies in advancing the scaling of AI applications. As intelligent agent applications expand further, the token consumption per interaction session is surging rapidly. The current cost structure has caused many valuable innovative applications to hit a roadblock due to 'economic feasibility' even before reaching scale, posing significant challenges to profitability. As the AI industry transitions from 'model competition' to 'application implementation,' inference costs and interaction speed have now become more critical competitive dimensions than model parameter size.

说到成本，投资者的另一个关注领域是代币成本，尤其是在扩展AI应用程序时。对于许多公司，高令牌成本已成为推进AI应用程序扩展的核心痛点。随着智能代理应用的进一步扩展，每个交互作用的代币消耗迅速迅速飙升。当前的成本结构导致许多有价值的创新应用程序甚至在达到规模之前“经济可行性”，因此遇到了障碍，对盈利能力构成了重大挑战。随着AI行业从“模型竞争”过渡到“应用程序实施”，推理成本和交互速度现在已成为比模型参数规模更重要的竞争维度。

The Bottom Line

底线

The VIX and related products can be useful tools, but they're not a magic bullet. Understand the costs, time your trades carefully, and consider alternative hedging strategies. And, hey, maybe just take a deep breath and remember that market volatility is a normal part of investing. Now go grab a slice and relax – you deserve it!

VIX和相关产品可能是有用的工具，但它们不是魔术子弹。了解成本，仔细交易的时间，并考虑替代性套期保值策略。而且，嘿，也许只是深吸一口气，请记住，市场波动是投资的正常部分。现在去抓住切片，放松一下 - 您应该得到它！