由于量子计算而导致的比特币死亡

普遍引用的主要威胁之一是量子计算的兴起。 Castle Island Ventures的普通合伙人Nic Carter简洁地回应

One of the commonly cited major threats is the rise of quantum computing.

普遍引用的主要威胁之一是量子计算的兴起。

General Partner at Castle Island Ventures, Nic Carter, concisely responded to Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment, question about the biggest structural risk for Bitcoin in the next 5-10 years: “quantum computing.”

Nic Carter Castle Island Ventures的普通合伙人对Lyn Alden Investment的创始人Lyn Alden做出了回应，这是对未来5 - 10年中比特币最大的结构性风险的问题：“量子计算”。

I increasingly agree.That was the catalyst for my thread/question, tbh.

我越来越同意。这是我的线程/问题的催化剂，TBH。

In fact, future quantum computers could break the encryption algorithms securing Bitcoin, like Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) that protects Bitcoin wallets. If an attacker manages to get control of a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, it could falsify digital signatures, enabling the theft of BTC from any wallet with an exposed public key.

实际上，未来的量子计算机可能会破坏确保比特币的加密算法，例如保护比特币钱包的椭圆曲线数字签名算法（ECDSA）。如果攻击者设法控制了足够强大的量子计算机，则可以伪造数字签名，从而使BTC从任何钱包中盗窃使用公开的公钥。

According to River’s research, a quantum computer with 1 million qubits would be needed to falsify a Bitcoin address. And Microsoft claims that its new Majorana chip is putting us on the path towards this crucial milestone.

根据River的研究，将需要使用100万吨的量子计算机来伪造比特币地址。微软声称，其新的Majorana芯片正在使我们走上这一关键里程碑的道路。

This raises an urgent question: how long does BTC have to become quantum-resistant?

这提出了一个紧迫的问题：BTC必须抗量子多久？

The Battle Between Bitcoin’s Decentralization and Regulation

比特币的权力下放和监管之间的战斗

Some investors believe that the increasing involvement of governments and institutions may become the biggest risk for Bitcoin in the next 5-10 years. As highlighted by investor MisterSpread, “the biggest structural risk is the friction between Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos and the growing push towards centralized regulatory oversight.”

一些投资者认为，在未来5 - 10年内，政府和机构的参与日益增加可能成为比特币的最大风险。正如投资者所强调的那样，“最大的结构性风险是比特币的分散精神与对集中监管监督的不断推动之间的摩擦。”

Indeed, data from BitcoinTreasuries shows that over the past five years, BTC holdings of private companies, public companies, governments, and ETFs have surged over 12 times, rising from 210,000 BTC to over 2.6 million BTC. This increased involvement of institutions could lead to legal pressures or unwanted changes to Bitcoin network fundamentals.

实际上，比特币库的数据表明，在过去的五年中，BTC的私人公司，上市公司，政府和ETF的持有量增长了12次以上，从210,000 BTC增至超过260万BTC。这种机构的参与可能会导致法律压力或对比特币网络基本面的不必要变化。

I estimate that $140K is where the remaining Bitcoiners & retail sell all their BTC. The ultimate irony is that after a decade of hodling, the Bitcoiners will have no Bitcoin. Billionaires will own it all & it will go to unimaginable prices. Will be sad to watch.

我估计$ 140K是其余的比特币和零售业出售所有BTC的地方。最终的具有讽刺意味的是，经过十年的狂欢，比特币将没有比特币。亿万富翁将拥有它，它将达到难以想象的价格。会很难看。

Bitcoin is a store of value, a safe haven for retail investors. However, the recent months have seen a massive accumulation by institutions and significant sales from individual investors:

比特币是价值商店，是散户投资者的避风港。但是，最近几个月来，机构的积累和个人投资者的大量销售量很大：

“I estimate all the remaining Bitcoiners and individuals will sell their BTC at $140,000. The irony is that after a decade of holding, the Bitcoiners will have no more BTC The billionaires will own them all, and their price will reach incredible levels. It will be sad to see.” wrote expert Aimass on X.

“我估计所有剩余的比特币和个人将以140,000美元的价格出售其BTC。具有讽刺意味的是，经过十年的持有，比特币者将不再拥有BTC，亿万富翁将拥有所有的人，而其价格将达到令人难以置信的水平。看到可悲的是。”在X上写了专家Aimass。

This phenomenon could harm Bitcoin in the long term. Moreover, the BTC mining sector is facing a similar fate. Only large-scale infrastructures capable of withstanding low income and competition can survive.

从长远来看，这种现象可能会伤害比特币。此外，BTC矿业部门面临着类似的命运。只有能够承受低收入和竞争的大规模基础设施才能生存。

In conclusion, as BTC continues to evolve, industry leaders warn that quantum computing and increasing regulatory surveillance could threaten its security and decentralized nature. Experts emphasize the urgency of implementing quantum-resistant measures before a potential “black swan” disrupts the networ. The challenge will be to quickly reach a consensus within the Bitcoin community to adopt these solutions in time. Decentralization is also questioned, with the massive accumulation by large institutions.

总之，随着BTC的不断发展，行业领导人警告说，量子计算和增加监管监视可能威胁其安全性和分散性。专家们强调了在潜在的“黑天鹅”破坏净卫星之前实施抗量子措施的紧迫性。面临的挑战将是快速在比特币社区中达成共识，以及时采用这些解决方案。大型机构的大量积累也被质疑。