达利奥（Dalio）的看法：平衡比特币，黄金和债务厄运循环

雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）建议将比特币或黄金分配15％，以此作为对美国债务和通货膨胀的对冲。这是纽约对冲基金Guru对加密货币的最新看法吗？

Ray Dalio, the big cheese at Bridgewater Associates, is sounding the alarm about U.S. debt and inflation. His solution? A healthy dose of Bitcoin or gold in your investment portfolio. Let's dive into what Dalio's been saying and what it means for your Benjamins.

布里奇沃特（Bridgewater Associates）的大奶酪雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）向美国债务和通货膨胀发出了警报。他的解决方案？您的投资组合中有健康剂量的比特币或黄金。让我们深入了解Dalio在说什么以及这对您的本杰明斯意味着什么。

Dalio's Portfolio Prescription: 15% in Gold or Bitcoin

Dalio的投资组合处方：15％的黄金或比特币

Dalio's been making the rounds, suggesting that investors should consider allocating around 15% of their portfolio to either gold or Bitcoin. This isn't just some random musing; it's a strategic move to hedge against the potential devaluation of the U.S. dollar amidst rising debt and geopolitical tensions. He told Master Investor podcast host Wilfred Frost, that diversification should include 15% of either gold or Bitcoin.

达利奥（Dalio）一直在巡回演出，这表明投资者应考虑将其投资组合的15％分配给黄金或比特币。这不仅是随机的沉思。在债务和地缘政治紧张局势上升，这是对冲美元的潜在贬值的战略举动。他告诉大师投资者播客主持人威尔弗雷德·弗罗斯特（Wilfred Frost），多元化应包括15％的黄金或比特币。

Back in 2022, Dalio was a bit more cautious, recommending only 1% to 2% in Bitcoin. But times have changed, and so has Dalio's outlook. He's now more concerned about what he calls the “debt doom loop,” with the U.S. planning to issue a whopping $12 trillion in new Treasury bonds to cover its $36.7 trillion national debt.

早在2022年，达利奥（Dalio）就更加谨慎，建议比特币中只有1％至2％。但是时代已经改变，达利奥的前景也发生了变化。现在，他更加担心他所谓的“债务厄运循环”，美国计划发行高达12万亿美元的新财政债券，以弥补其36.7万亿美元的国债。

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Dalio's Preference

黄金与比特币：达利奥的偏爱

While Dalio acknowledges Bitcoin's potential, he still leans towards gold. He sees both as effective alternatives when fiat currencies lose value. However, he maintains a conservative stance on Bitcoin's role as a reserve asset, citing concerns about oversight and blockchain transparency.

尽管达利奥（Dalio）承认比特币的潜力，但他仍然倾向于黄金。当法定货币失去价值时，他认为两者都是有效的选择。但是，他对比特币作为储备资产的作用保持了保守的立场，理由是对监督和区块链透明度的担忧。

He emphasizes that if you were neutral and optimizing your portfolio for the best risk-reward ratio, about 15% in gold or Bitcoin would be a good call, but he prefers gold.

他强调，如果您处于中立并以最佳风险奖励比率优化投资组合，那么大约15％的黄金或比特币将是一个很好的电话，但他更喜欢黄金。

The Bigger Picture: Inflation and Economic Concerns

更大的前景：通货膨胀和经济问题

Dalio isn't alone in his concerns. Senator Cynthia Lummis has also suggested that Bitcoin could serve as an inflation hedge, especially for low- to middle-income folks. The U.S. government is projected to borrow $1 trillion in Q3 and another $590 billion in Q4, further fueling these concerns.

达利奥并不孤单。参议员辛西娅·卢米斯（Cynthia Lummis）还建议比特币可以作为通货膨胀对冲，尤其是对于低至中等收入的人。美国政府预计将在第三季度借入1万亿美元，在第四季度再借入5900亿美元，进一步加剧了这些担忧。

Dalio has even warned of a potential 1970s-style stagflation period, with high inflation, high unemployment, and low economic growth. In such times, hard assets like gold and Bitcoin could be your financial life raft.

达利奥（Dalio）甚至警告了1970年代风格的停滞期，高通货膨胀，高失业率和经济增长低。在这种情况下，金和比特币等硬资产可能是您的财务寿命。

A Contrarian's View (Sort Of)

逆势人物的观点（有点）

While Dalio's advice is noteworthy, it's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and investment goals. Dumping 15% of your portfolio into a volatile asset like Bitcoin might not be for everyone. However, the underlying message is clear: diversification and hedging against potential economic downturns are crucial.

尽管达利奥（Dalio）的建议值得注意，但必须考虑自己的风险承受能力和投资目标。将15％的投资组合倒入像比特币这样的波动资产中，可能并不适合所有人。但是，基本信息是明确的：对潜在的经济低迷的多元化和对冲至关重要。

So, What's the Play?

那么，什么是戏？

Dalio's insights offer a compelling argument for considering Bitcoin and gold as part of a well-rounded investment strategy. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting, it's worth pondering how these assets could fit into your long-term financial plan. Just remember, don't go betting the house on crypto...unless you're feeling particularly daring. Now, go forth and conquer the markets!

达利奥（Dalio）的见解为将比特币和黄金视为全面投资策略的一部分提供了令人信服的论点。无论您是经验丰富的投资者还是刚开始，都值得思考这些资产如何适合您的长期财务计划。请记住，不要在加密货币上押注房子...除非您感到特别大胆。现在，出去征服市场！