CryptoQuant 强调比特币价格飙升中的危险信号

链上数据服务 CryptoQuant 表示，有五个重要警告迹象表明比特币即将达到其价格高位

As Bitcoin continues to rally, reaching a new high of almost $94,100 on Monday, onchain data service CryptoQuant is highlighting five crucial warning indications that could signal an impending price peak.

随着比特币继续上涨，周一达到近 94,100 美元的新高，链上数据服务 CryptoQuant 强调了五个重要的警告迹象，这些迹象可能预示着即将到来的价格峰值。

One of these signs, which is already evident, is a MVRV ratio of over 2.67, indicating that Bitcoin's valuation may be approaching unsustainable levels.

其中一个已经很明显的迹象是 MVRV 比率超过 2.67，表明比特币的估值可能正在接近不可持续的水平。

According to CryptoQuant, onchain data points to crucial warning signs for Bitcoin, with one already flashing red. In a post on Monday, the onchain data service highlighted its top five warning indications for approaching an unsustainable level of price appreciation in BTC.

根据 CryptoQuant 的说法，链上数据指向了比特币的关键警告信号，其中一个信号已经呈红色闪烁。在周一的一篇文章中，链上数据服务强调了 BTC 价格升值接近不可持续水平的前五个警告迹象。

The first indicator is the MVRV ratio, which compares the market value of Bitcoin (the total of all mined coins) with its realized value (the total of all Bitcoins sold recently) to determine its health.

第一个指标是 MVRV 比率，它将比特币的市场价值（所有开采的比特币的总和）与其变现价值（最近出售的所有比特币的总和）进行比较，以确定其健康状况。

This metric is used to assess whether an asset is over or undervalued, with higher ratios indicating that an asset's valuation may have peaked for the time being.

该指标用于评估资产是否被高估或低估，较高的比率表明资产的估值可能暂时已达到顶峰。

Based on the data provided by CoinGlass, the MVRV ratio currently stands at 2.67, indicating that Bitcoin's market valuation is still within a healthy range.

根据CoinGlass提供的数据，目前MVRV比率为2.67，表明比特币的市场估值仍处于健康范围内。

However, it is important to note that this ratio reached a maximum of 7 during Bitcoin's historic rally to a peak of almost $60,000 in February 2021.

然而，值得注意的是，在比特币历史性反弹期间，这一比率最高达到 7，并于 2021 年 2 月达到近 60,000 美元的峰值。

Another key indicator is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is used to gauge market sentiment on a scale of 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating increasing optimism and euphoria.

另一个关键指标是加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数，该指数用于衡量市场情绪，分值范围为 0 到 100，分数越高表明乐观情绪和兴奋情绪增加。

According to CryptoQuant (via Cointelegraph), in conjunction with other indicators, Bitcoin might be approaching a local top when the index reaches 80 out of a total score of 100.

根据 CryptoQuant（来自 Cointelegraph）的说法，结合其他指标，当该指数达到 100 分总分中的 80 分时，比特币可能正在接近局部顶部。

Since November 12, index readings have consistently been in this range, peaking at 90 on November 17 and 19 (the highest since February 2021).

自 11 月 12 日以来，指数读数一直处于该区间，并于 11 月 17 日和 19 日达到 90 的峰值（2021 年 2 月以来的最高值）。

Another crucial indicator is the amount of fresh capital entering the market, which can be used to identify market peaks. According to CryptoQuant, when there is little "new money flow," cryptocurrency prices tend to plateau and subsequently retreat.

另一个关键指标是进入市场的新资金量，它可以用来识别市场峰值。根据 CryptoQuant 的说法，当“新资金流”很少时，加密货币价格往往会趋于稳定，然后回落。

This is because the entry of new capital into the market is a key driver of sustained price increases, and its absence or depletion can often signal an impending market downturn.

这是因为新资本进入市场是价格持续上涨的关键驱动力，而新资本的缺失或枯竭往往预示着市场即将衰退。

Currently, Bitcoin is in what CryptoQuant calls a "bull phase" because the realized cap growth chart—the perfect instrument for monitoring market capitalization—shows that new money inflows are relatively strong.

目前，比特币正处于 CryptoQuant 所说的“牛市阶段”，因为已实现的上限增长图表（监控市值的完美工具）显示新资金流入相对强劲。

Another indicator to watch is whether long-term Bitcoin holders are selling actively. You can use the Coin Days Destroyed tool to see if Bitcoins that have been idle for a while are being sold.

另一个值得关注的指标是长期比特币持有者是否正在积极抛售。您可以使用 Coin Days Destroyed 工具查看闲置一段时间的比特币是否被出售。

This metric measures the total number of days that a Bitcoin was last moved before being sold, and it can indicate selling pressure from long-term holders if it spikes suddenly.

该指标衡量比特币在出售前最后移动的总天数，如果比特币突然飙升，它可以表明长期持有者的抛售压力。

According to CryptoQuant, a short-term adverse signal for the price of Bitcoin could be indicated if the indicator surges beyond 15-20 million. The current score displayed by the indicator is 15.1 million.

据 CryptoQuant 称，如果该指标飙升至 15-2000 万以上，则可能预示着比特币价格的短期不利信号。该指标当前显示的分数为1510万。

The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) tracks the flow of Bitcoin to and from derivatives exchanges, making it the last indicator. This metric is used to identify بازار crypto peaks and downturns.

交易所间流量脉冲（IFP）跟踪比特币进出衍生品交易所的流量，​​使其成为最后一个指标。该指标用于识别加密货币的高峰和低迷。

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is still being moved to derivatives exchanges to be utilized as collateral, and the IFP continues to display a positive structure.

据 CryptoQuant 称，比特币仍在被转移到衍生品交易所用作抵押品，并且 IFP 继续呈现出积极的结构。

At present, Bitcoin's IFP is hovering at 730,000 and is trending upward. During prior bull runs, the IFP hit 1 million, and during the late 2023 bear market, it dropped below 200,000.

目前，比特币的IFP徘徊在73万，并呈上升趋势。在之前的牛市期间，IFP 达到 100 万，而在 2023 年末的熊市期间，则跌破 20 万。

After Donald Trump's victory, the price of Bitcoin has risen steadily, reaching a new high of almost $94,100 on Monday. Several analysts, including Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets analysis at VanEck, are aiming for a price of $180,000 BTC early next year.

唐纳德·特朗普获胜后，比特币的价格稳步上涨，周一达到近 94,100 美元的新高。包括 VanEck 数字资产分析主管 Matthew Sigel 在内的几位分析师预计 BTC 明年初的价格将达到 18 万美元。