CryptoQuant 创始人设想比特币 (BTC) 作为未来货币

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 最近发表的一篇文章称，到 2030 年，比特币 (BTC) 最终可能实现其作为全球货币的潜力。

Bitcoin (BTC) may finally live up to its potential as a global currency by 2030, according to a recent analysis.

根据最近的分析，到 2030 年，比特币 (BTC) 可能最终会发挥其作为全球货币的潜力。

When Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, they envisioned it as a decentralized, peer-to-peer (P2P) electronic cash system. While the primary focus has been on Bitcoin as a speculative investment asset, a deeper look at its evolution suggests that this vision may yet be realized.

当中本聪创建比特币时，他们将其设想为一种去中心化的点对点（P2P）电子现金系统。虽然人们主要关注的是比特币作为一种投机性投资资产，但深入研究其演变表明这一愿景可能会实现。

Ki Young Ju, the founder of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, recently shared his thoughts on X (formerly Twitter) about the future of Bitcoin. In his analysis, Ki hints at a time when Bitcoin will be widely used as a low-volatility currency, rather than just a speculative investment asset.

链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 的创始人 Ki Young Ju 最近在 X（前身为 Twitter）上分享了他对比特币未来的看法。 Ki 在他的分析中暗示，比特币将被广泛用作低波动性货币，而不仅仅是投机性投资资产。

This vision is centered around how drastically Bitcoin mining has changed since its inception in 2009. Back then, individual miners could easily mine 50 BTC with a single personal computer. Today, the playing field is entirely different.

这一愿景的核心是比特币挖矿自 2009 年诞生以来发生了多么巨大的变化。当时，个人矿工可以用一台个人电脑轻松开采 50 BTC。如今，竞争环境完全不同了。

Bitcoin’s mining difficulty, which measures the complexity of mining new blocks, has surged by a staggering 378% in just the past three years. This reflects the increased competition within the industry, rendering it nearly impossible for individual miners to participate profitably.

比特币的挖矿难度（衡量挖掘新区块的复杂性）在过去三年内飙升了 378%。这反映出行业内竞争的加剧，使得个体矿工几乎不可能参与并盈利。

Instead, large-scale mining companies backed by institutional investors now dominate the industry. This shift toward institutional control has had far-reaching consequences for Bitcoin’s future. As institutional investors take the reins, entry barriers to mining rise, and Bitcoin’s ecosystem grows more stable.

相反，由机构投资者支持的大型矿业公司现在主导了该行业。这种向机构控制的转变对比特币的未来产生了深远的影响。随着机构投资者的掌控，挖矿的准入门槛上升，比特币的生态系统变得更加稳定。

Against this backdrop, Ki suggests that stabilization could reduce Bitcoin’s infamous price volatility. Instead, it could make it less appealing to day traders but more attractive as a practical currency.

在此背景下，Ki 表示，稳定可以减少比特币臭名昭著的价格波动。相反，它可能会降低其对日间交易者的吸引力，但作为实用货币更具吸引力。

The CryptoQuant executive also points to one key event – Bitcoin halving. This event occurs approximately every four years when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half. After the 2024 Bitcoin halving, the next one is expected to take place around April 2028.

这位 CryptoQuant 高管还指出了一个关键事件——比特币减半。这一事件大约每四年发生一次，届时比特币交易的挖矿奖励就会减少一半。 2024 年比特币减半后，下一次减半预计将在 2028 年 4 月左右发生。

Historically, significant price increases came after halving events. However, Ki predicts that the 2028 halving could mark a new phase in Bitcoin’s evolution. As Bitcoin’’s volatility decreases over time, the conversation around its use as a “currency” may begin in earnest by this time.

从历史上看，价格大幅上涨是在减半事件之后发生的。然而，Ki 预测 2028 年减半可能标志着比特币发展的新阶段。随着比特币的波动性随着时间的推移而降低，围绕其作为“货币”使用的讨论此时可能会正式开始。

Ki believes that by 2028, institutional adoption will reach a critical mass, paving the way for Bitcoin to become more widely accepted for everyday transactions. The increasing presence of major fintech companies could also play a role in Bitcoin’s transformation into a currency.

Ki 相信，到 2028 年，机构采用将达到临界规模，为比特币在日常交易中得到更广泛的接受铺平道路。主要金融科技公司的不断增加也可能在比特币向货币的转变中发挥作用。

For instance, Stripe’s recent foray into the stablecoin infrastructure space could draw more e-commerce and global markets. As regulatory clarity emerges, stablecoins could see mass adoption. This could familiarize more people with blockchain wallets and other cryptocurrency-related technologies in turn.

例如，Stripe 最近进军稳定币基础设施领域可能会吸引更多的电子商务和全球市场。随着监管的明确化，稳定币可能会得到大规模采用。这反过来可以让更多人熟悉区块链钱包和其他加密货币相关技术。

Furthermore, volatility has long been a major barrier to Bitcoin’s use as a currency. Businesses and consumers are reluctant to use Bitcoin for transactions if its value fluctuates wildly from day to day. However, Ki argues that this volatility is slowly decreasing as the ecosystem matures.

此外，波动性长期以来一直是比特币作为货币使用的主要障碍。如果比特币的价值每天剧烈波动，企业和消费者就不愿意使用比特币进行交易。然而，Ki 认为，随着生态系统的成熟，这种波动性正在慢慢减少。

“As volatility decreases, Bitcoin’s role as a currency becomes increasingly inevitable,” Ju added.

“随着波动性的降低，比特币作为货币的角色变得越来越不可避免，”Ju 补充道。

This reduction may occur through advancements in protocol, Layer 2 (L2) networks, or the adoption of Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC). Nevertheless, Ki says for Bitcoin L2s to be competitive, they would need institutional support. As these improvements take hold, Bitcoin’s potential to serve as a stable currency grows.

这种减少可能通过协议、第 2 层 (L2) 网络的进步或 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) 的采用来实现。尽管如此，Ki 表示，比特币 L2 要想具有竞争力，就需要机构支持。随着这些改进的落实，比特币作为稳定货币的潜力不断增长。

This aligns with the vision of financial experts like billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones, who sees Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Jones believes that Bitcoin’s finite supply, particularly in a world burdened by increasing debt and inflation, makes it an attractive store of value.

这与亿万富翁投资者保罗·都铎·琼斯等金融专家的愿景一致，他们将比特币视为对冲通胀和经济不确定性的工具。琼斯认为，比特币的有限供应，尤其是在债务和通货膨胀不断增加的世界中，使其成为一种有吸引力的价值储存手段。

Similarly, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor believes that Bitcoin’s unique properties make it a superior store of value over the long haul. This explains the business intelligence firm’s progressive BTC buying spree. The firm has been stacking Bitcoin since 2020 and is still holding on.

同样，MicroStrategy 创始人 Michael Saylor 认为，从长远来看，比特币的独特属性使其成为卓越的价值储存手段。这解释了这家商业情报公司不断疯狂购买比特币的原因。该公司自 2020 年以来一直在积累比特币，并且仍在坚持。

This growing institutional trust could further stabilize Bitcoin’s price, enhancing its appeal as a currency by the end of the decade.

这种不断增长的机构信任可能会进一步稳定比特币的价格，从而在本世纪末增强其作为货币的吸引力。

“We’re buying Bitcoin to hold it 100 years. That $66,000 to $16,000 crash shook out the tourists. When it was $16,000, we were all ready to ride it to zero,” Saylor said recently.

“我们购买比特币是为了持有它 100 年。那次 66,000 美元到 16,000 美元的事故震惊了游客。当价格达到 16,000 美元时，我们都准备好将其降到零，”塞勒最近说道。

For Ki, this transformation represents a return to Bitcoin’s original purpose. While many view Bitcoin as “digital gold,” Satoshi’s true aim was for it to function as a P2P electronic cash system.

对于 Ki 来说，这种转变代表着比特币最初目的的回归。虽然许多人将比特币视为“数字黄金”，但中本聪的真正目标是使其成为 P2P 电子现金系统。

As the ecosystem matures and volatility continues to decrease, the perception that Bitcoin cannot be a currency no longer exists. CryptoQuant’s founder believes the world could see Bitcoin used as a practical, low-volatility currency by 2030, effectively realizing

随着生态系统的成熟和波动性的不断降低，比特币不能成为货币的观念已不复存在。 CryptoQuant 的创始人相信，到 2030 年，世界将看到比特币成为一种实用的、低波动性的货币，从而有效地实现