下一次加密货币牛市：是什么让人们等待？

当我们进入今年最后一个季度时，空气中的一个主要预期是下一个加密货币牛市。这种预期导致许多加密货币

Cryptocurrency markets have seen several boom and bust phases over the years. Following Bitcoin’s 2017 surge and subsequent 2018 crash, another major bull run occurred in late 2020 and early 2021. Since then, the market has largely been in a corrective phase, leaving many investors wondering when the next sustained upswing will come.

多年来，加密货币市场经历了几个繁荣和萧条阶段。继比特币 2017 年飙升和随后的 2018 年崩盘之后，另一场重大牛市发生在 2020 年底和 2021 年初。此后，市场基本上处于修正阶段，让许多投资者想知道下一次持续上涨何时到来。

This period of market correction has coincided with heightened regulatory scrutiny and concerns over inflation, interest rate hikes, and broader uncertainty in global markets. Earlier this year, the bitcoin halving event also took place, which typically serves to boost bitcoin’s value and increase demand for cheaper coins, setting the stage for the next market rally.

这一时期的市场调整恰逢监管审查加强以及对通胀、加息和全球市场更广泛不确定性的担忧。今年早些时候，比特币减半事件也发生了，这通常会提高比特币的价值并增加对更便宜硬币的需求，为下一次市场反弹奠定基础。

However, it’s worth noting that while cryptocurrencies were initially seen as a hedge against traditional markets, they are now also largely impacted by them due to their close linkages to the global financial system.

然而，值得注意的是，虽然加密货币最初被视为对传统市场的对冲，但由于其与全球金融体系的密切联系，现在也很大程度上受到传统市场的影响。

In both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency space, a bull run is characterized by rising prices, typically driven by high investor confidence, positive news, and strong economic fundamentals. The market experiences a dip, followed by a surge in prices, allowing coin holders to profit when they eventually sell and convert to fiat currency.

在传统市场和加密货币领域，牛市的特点是价格上涨，通常是由投资者高信心、利好消息和强劲的经济基本面推动的。市场经历下跌，随后价格飙升，使代币持有者最终在出售并转换为法定货币时获利。

Just like in traditional markets, the crypto space is also driven by speculation, technological advances, and community sentiment. These factors, often overlooked by the average person, are crucial for timing buy and sell decisions in the cryptocurrency market.

就像传统市场一样，加密货币领域也受到投机、技术进步和社区情绪的驱动。这些因素经常被普通人忽视，但它们对于加密货币市场的买卖决策时机至关重要。

To fully understand what drives a bull run, it’s essential to consider factors such as institutional adoption, technological advances, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic conditions, all of which set the stage for the next market surge.

要充分了解牛市的推动因素，必须考虑制度采用、技术进步、监管清晰度和宏观经济状况等因素，所有这些都为下一次市场飙升奠定了基础。

Several key developments are contributing to the anticipation and waiting game for the next crypto bull run:

几个关键的发展有助于人们对下一次加密货币牛市的预期和等待：

Technological Advancements: Innovations like Ethereum’s switch to proof-of-stake, advances in decentralized finance (DeFi), and rising interest in non-fungible tokens (NFTs) suggest the technology is maturing. As these technologies improve, they could spur a new wave of adoption and investment, especially considering the real-world use, scalability, and security enhancements offered by cryptocurrencies. Increased institutional adoption also influences these events, such as financial firms like Blackrock beginning to offer exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and crypto investments.

技术进步：以太坊转向权益证明、去中心化金融 (DeFi) 的进步以及对不可替代代币 (NFT) 兴趣的增加等创新表明该技术正在走向成熟。随着这些技术的改进，它们可能会刺激新一波的采用和投资，特别是考虑到加密货币提供的现实使用、可扩展性和安全性增强。机构采用率的提高也会影响这些事件，例如贝莱德等金融公司开始提供交易所交易基金（ETF）和加密货币投资。

Regulatory Clarity: One big hurdle for cryptocurrencies has been the lack of clear regulatory stance in several countries, with Nigeria being a classic case where the regulations have long been hostile. However, as governments finally define their stance on digital assets, it will boost investor confidence.

监管清晰度：加密货币的一大障碍是一些国家缺乏明确的监管立场，尼日利亚是监管长期以来充满敌意的典型案例。然而，随着各国政府最终明确对数字资产的立场，这将提振投资者的信心。

Macroeconomic Factors: With rising inflation and unstable markets, investors are seeking alternative assets to protect their wealth. Cryptocurrencies, with their decentralized nature and limited supply (in the case of Bitcoin), are seen by some as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. If global markets continue to struggle, we could see a shift of capital into digital assets, potentially sparking a new bull run.

宏观经济因素：随着通胀上升和市场不稳定，投资者正在寻求替代资产来保护自己的财富。加密货币具有去中心化的性质和有限的供应（就比特币而言），被一些人视为对冲通货膨胀和经济不确定性的工具。如果全球市场继续陷入困境，我们可能会看到资本转向数字资产，从而可能引发新一轮牛市。

The question on everyone’s mind is whether a bull run will occur before the year ends. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $57,928.01 (BTC/USD), with a market capitalization of $1,144.03B.

每个人都关心的问题是年底前是否会出现牛市。截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 57,928.01 美元（BTC/USD），市值为 $1,144.03B。

Based on current global events and market dynamics, which are influenced by economic events, it seems more likely that the bull run may extend into the new year. This will bring a flurry of developments in the crypto market and politics, likely to shift market dynamics and inspire the next run.

根据当前受经济事件影响的全球事件和市场动态，牛市似乎更有可能延续到新的一年。这将为加密货币市场和政治带来一系列发展，可能会改变市场动态并激发下一次上涨。

Since a dip is a prerequisite of a bull run, we should expect a sharp drop in bitcoin’s price just before the bull run.

由于下跌是牛市的先决条件，因此我们应该预期比特币价格在牛市之前会大幅下跌。

It’s essential to understand the psychology behind it. The cryptocurrency market has always been driven by emotion as much as by logic. Fear of missing out (FOMO) during bull runs and fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) during bear markets drive investor behavior.

了解其背后的心理学至关重要。加密货币市场一直是由情感和逻辑驱动的。牛市期间对错过的恐惧（FOMO）和熊市期间的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑（FUD）驱动着投资者的行为。

This emotional rollercoaster can cause investors to make irrational decisions, such as buying high, hoping for more gains, or selling low, fearing losses. For those waiting for the next bull run, it’s crucial to stay disciplined. The market is unpredictable. It’s tempting to act on hype. But a more measured approach often pays off in the long run. It means doing thorough research. You must understand the assets you’re investing in. You need a clear strategy for entering and exiting the market.

这种情绪的过山车可能会导致投资者做出非理性的决定，例如高买，希望获得更多收益，或者低卖，担心损失。对于那些等待下一次牛市的人来说，保持自律至关重要。市场是不可预测的。人们很容易根据炒作采取行动。但从长远来看，更加谨慎的方法往往会带来回报。这意味着进行彻底的研究。您必须了解您所投资的资产。您需要一个明确的进入和退出市场的策略。

So, what should you as an investor do while waiting for the next bull run?

那么，作为投资者在等待下一次牛市期间应该做什么呢？

Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest news in the crypto world. Know the tech, regulations, and trends that may drive the next surge. While new coins are being hyped, look beyond them. Understand the ideology behind meme coins. Many ‘shitcoins’ will be released. Knowing which coin to buy will be an invaluable insight you will want to have.

保持信息灵通：了解加密世界的最新消息。了解可能推动下一次浪潮的技术、法规和趋势。虽然新币正在大肆宣传，但不要只看它们本身。了解模因硬币背后的意识形态。许多“垃圾币”将会被释放。知道要购买哪种硬币将是您想要拥有的宝贵见解。

Diversify: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Investing in different asset classes and in crypto can lower risk.

多样化：不要把所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。投资不同的资产类别和加密货币可以降低风险。

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