加密货币分析师警告山寨币即将崩溃

加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 预测，山寨币相对于比特币的市场即将崩溃。 TOTAL3 图表追踪了不包括以太坊和稳定币的山寨币市值，显示出看跌情绪。该分析师建议，在 5 月和 6 月投降之前，山寨币/比特币对将最终退出，类似于 2019 年观察到的模式。Cowen 预计山寨币支持将崩溃，可能导致市场份额下降至比特币的 25%市值。

Crypto Analyst Predicts Imminent Collapse in Altcoin Market

加密货币分析师预测山寨币市场即将崩溃

Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen has issued a stark warning: the altcoin market is on the brink of implosion against Bitcoin (BTC). In a comprehensive analysis presented to his vast YouTube following, Cowen presents compelling evidence that points to a looming capitulation event for altcoins.

加密货币策略师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）发出了严厉警告：山寨币市场正处于比特币（BTC）崩溃的边缘。在向 YouTube 上的大量粉丝提交的综合分析中，考恩提出了令人信服的证据，表明山寨币的投降事件迫在眉睫。

Cowen's analysis hinges on the TOTAL3 chart, which measures the combined market capitalization of all altcoins, excluding Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins. This metric provides a valuable barometer of the overall health of the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Cowen 的分析取决于 TOTAL3 图表，该图表衡量所有山寨币的总市值，不包括以太坊 (ETH) 和稳定币。该指标为山寨币市场相对于比特币的整体健康状况提供了宝贵的晴雨表。

Bearish Patterns Indicate Altcoin Weakness

看跌模式表明山寨币疲软

According to Cowen, the TOTAL3 chart against Bitcoin paints a concerning picture. Most altcoins have registered new lows when paired with Bitcoin, indicating a significant loss of value. This weakness suggests that altcoins may be poised for a further decline.

Cowen 表示，TOTAL3 相对于比特币的图表描绘了一幅令人担忧的画面。大多数山寨币在与比特币配对时都创下新低，表明价值大幅下降。这种疲软表明山寨币可能会进一步下跌。

"The majority of altcoins are still creating new lows against Bitcoin. To find exceptions, you'd have to cherry-pick from the top 20 coins that aren't setting new lows, or you'd have to look at recently created micro-caps," Cowen explained.

“大多数山寨币相对于比特币仍在创出新低。要找到例外，你必须从没有创下新低的前 20 种代币中挑选出来，或者你必须看看最近创建的微型货币。”帽子，”考恩解释道。

Historical Parallels Suggest Altcoin Capitulation

历史相似之处表明山寨币投降

Cowen draws parallels between the current market conditions and a similar pattern that unfolded in 2019. After reaching a low in May 2019, altcoins experienced a brief bounce in June 2019, but this ultimately failed and led to a prolonged sell-off during the summer months.

Cowen 将当前的市场状况与 2019 年出现的类似模式进行了比较。在 2019 年 5 月触及低点后，山寨币在 2019 年 6 月经历了短暂的反弹，但这最终失败了，并导致了夏季的长期抛售。

"This pattern resembles what we witnessed in the previous cycle. After the low in May 2019, there was a final bounce in June 2019, which subsequently faded below the bull market support band, triggering a decline into the summer," Cowen said.

“这种模式类似于我们在上一个周期中看到的情况。在 2019 年 5 月的低点之后，2019 年 6 月出现了最终反弹，随后跌破牛市支撑带，引发了夏季的下跌，”考恩表示。

Summer Slump Amplifies Altcoin Weakness

夏季低迷加剧了山寨币的疲软

Cowen believes that the summer months can exacerbate altcoin weakness as traders and investors tend to focus their attention elsewhere. This phenomenon can lead to a diminished collective demand for altcoins and further downward pressure on prices.

考恩认为，夏季可能会加剧山寨币的疲软，因为交易员和投资者往往将注意力集中在其他地方。这种现象可能导致对山寨币的集体需求减少以及价格进一步下行的压力。

"Historically, altcoin pairs against Bitcoin tend to capitulate in the summer because many people are less actively engaged in trading during that period. I anticipate a similar scenario this year, with a final rally attempt followed by a decline and eventual capitulation, possibly dropping to 25% of Bitcoin's market cap," Cowen stated.

“从历史上看，山寨币对比特币往往会在夏季投降，因为许多人在此期间不太积极参与交易。我预计今年也会出现类似的情况，最终尝试反弹，然后下跌并最终投降，可能会跌至占比特币市值的 25%，”Cowen 表示。

Warning for Altcoin Investors

对山寨币投资者的警告

Cowen's analysis serves as a strong caution to altcoin investors, who should be aware of the potential risks associated with holding assets that are underperforming against Bitcoin. The impending capitulation event could lead to significant losses for those who are overly concentrated in altcoins.

考恩的分析对山寨币投资者来说是一个强烈的警告，他们应该意识到持有表现不佳的比特币资产所带来的潜在风险。即将发生的投降事件可能会给那些过度集中于山寨币的人带来重大损失。

"I believe that prudent investors should exercise caution and consider the possibility of altcoins losing further ground against Bitcoin. By monitoring the TOTAL3 and related metrics, traders can stay informed and make informed decisions amidst the anticipated market volatility," Cowen concluded.

“我认为，谨慎的投资者应该谨慎行事，并考虑山寨币相对于比特币进一步下跌的可能性。通过监控 TOTAL3 和相关指标，交易者可以在预期的市场波动中随时了解情况并做出明智的决策，”Cowen 总结道。