CoinShares的市场指标：在美联储调整中，比特币平静

Coinshares的詹姆斯·巴特菲尔（James Butterfill）分析了比特币对美联储的费率调整的反应，强调了投资者对清除宽松周期的期望。

The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut barely caused a ripple in the Bitcoin pond, according to CoinShares' insights. Traders are playing it cool, demanding solid proof of a genuine shift in monetary policy rather than just a minor adjustment.

根据Coinshares的见解，美联储最近削减的速度几乎没有引起比特币池塘的波纹。贸易商正在酷炫，要求诚实的证据证明货币政策的真正转变，而不仅仅是较小的调整。

Bitcoin's Waiting Game

比特币的等待游戏

Bitcoin has been treading water for three months, with volatility squeezed to around 26%. This is quite the contrast to the usual excitement that follows easing policies. CoinShares' report suggests that while futures markets are toying with the idea of three rate cuts this year, the price action is saying, "Show me the money!"

比特币已经踩水了三个月，波动性挤压到约26％。这与宽松政策遵循的兴奋是完全鲜明的对比。 Coinshares的报告表明，尽管期货市场今年削减了三税的想法，但价格行动说：“给我看钱！”

Decoding the Fed's Moves

解码美联储的举动

The Fed shaved off 25 basis points, setting the target range at 4.0%–4.25%. The projections now hint at another 50 bps of cuts in 2024, with further reductions in 2026 and 2027. However, there's a split view on the horizon. Some foresee two more trims in 2024, while others anticipate none, and a few even suggest potential rate hikes by the end of the year.

美联储剃掉了25个基点，将目标范围定为4.0％–4.25％。现在，预测暗示了2024年的另外50个基点的切割，在2026年和2027年进行了进一步的减少。但是，地平线上有一个拆分视图。一些人预见到2024年还有两个修剪，而另一些人则没有预见，甚至有些人甚至建议在今年年底之前上涨。

Dovish Signals and Bitcoin's Appeal

虔诚的信号和比特币的吸引力

CoinShares interprets the Fed's actions as a more dovish approach, easing policy despite persistent inflation concerns. This stance could enhance Bitcoin's attractiveness as a hedge against monetary debasement. However, markets are seeking confirmation. Until policymakers provide a clear and consistent path of cuts, Bitcoin seems content to wait, compressing volatility and biding its time.

Coinshares将美联储的行为解释为一种更虔诚的方法，尽管有持续的通货膨胀问题，但仍将政策放松。这种立场可以提高比特币的吸引力，以防树篱货币贬低。但是，市场正在寻求确认。除非政策制定者提供清晰的切割途径，否则比特币似乎满足于等待，压缩波动率并付出时间。

Market Expectations vs. Reality

市场期望与现实

While CME's FedWatch is practically shouting about another rate cut, with a 90% probability, Bitcoin remains unfazed. Traders are essentially sipping lattes, waiting for Fed Chair Powell to deliver a full-throated confirmation. Until then, Bitcoin is happy playing the strong, silent type.

尽管CME的FedWatch实际上在大喊降低税率的情况下，但概率为90％，但比特币仍然毫无疑问。贸易商本质上是在饮拿铁咖啡，等待美联储主席鲍威尔提供全面的确认。在此之前，比特币很高兴玩强壮，无声的类型。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, what's the takeaway? Bitcoin's not easily swayed by mere whispers. It's waiting for the Fed to turn up the volume and commit to a sustained easing cycle. Until then, it's business as usual in the crypto world. Keep your lattes warm and your eyes on the charts!

那么，收获是什么？比特币不容易被单纯的耳语摇摆。它正在等待美联储提高音量并承诺持续的缓解周期。在此之前，在加密货币世界中像往常一样生意。保持拿铁的温暖，并在图表上！